Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern High Plains and far eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota on Friday. ...Synopsis... A more progressive upper pattern in expected on Friday as an upper trough develops westward across the western U.S. This will shunt the Plains upper ridge east, extending from the Great Lakes, southward to the Gulf Coast states. While the upper trough envelops much of the western U.S., an upper anticyclone will remain centered over northern Baja, and extend northeast into AZ/NM. At the surface, a cold front will extend southward across the western Dakotas early in the day. The northern extent of the front will develop east toward the ND/MN border by 00z, while the SD portion of the front stalls and becomes diffuse. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a mostly dry airmass from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone over the Upper Midwest will allow for rich boundary layer moisture beneath the eastward-develop upper ridge. Southwesterly low-level flow across northwest Mexico into AZ will bring modest boundary-layer moisture into the southern AZ deserts as well. ...WY into western SD and Vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture is expected to modestly return in the wake of the morning cold front as the boundary stalls over western/central SD. Low-level flow is expected to become east/southeasterly during the afternoon, allowing for modest moisture return and destabilization in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. Forecast guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will develop as large-scale ascent increases in response to a shortwave impulse migrating through southwesterly flow, generating modest height falls across the region. Forecast soundings indicate a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v thermodynamic sub-cloud profiles amid 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated strong/severe gusts may accompany thunderstorm activity during the evening, especially if clustering/outflow consolidation occurs. ...Eastern ND into MN... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front by late Friday afternoon as the boundary impinges on richer boundary layer moisture. Initial capping should erode as the upper ridge shifts east toward the Great Lakes, resulting in falling heights/cooling aloft while warm advection continues in the low-levels. Even if weak capping is maintained, elevated convection is still expected. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg is forecast amid effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt, supporting robust updrafts and marginal supercells. Isolated hail will be possible in addition locally strong gusts. ...AZ... Modest boundary layer moisture and steep lapse rates will support around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorms will once again develop over higher terrain and move south during the evening. Mid and upper-level flow will be a bit more northerly compared to the prior few days and fairly weak (generally less than 15 kt). Nevertheless, deep mixing and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support sporadic strong gusts. Given somewhat less favorable flow compared to recent days, will hold off on marginal wind probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern High Plains and far eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota on Friday. ...Synopsis... A more progressive upper pattern in expected on Friday as an upper trough develops westward across the western U.S. This will shunt the Plains upper ridge east, extending from the Great Lakes, southward to the Gulf Coast states. While the upper trough envelops much of the western U.S., an upper anticyclone will remain centered over northern Baja, and extend northeast into AZ/NM. At the surface, a cold front will extend southward across the western Dakotas early in the day. The northern extent of the front will develop east toward the ND/MN border by 00z, while the SD portion of the front stalls and becomes diffuse. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a mostly dry airmass from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone over the Upper Midwest will allow for rich boundary layer moisture beneath the eastward-develop upper ridge. Southwesterly low-level flow across northwest Mexico into AZ will bring modest boundary-layer moisture into the southern AZ deserts as well. ...WY into western SD and Vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture is expected to modestly return in the wake of the morning cold front as the boundary stalls over western/central SD. Low-level flow is expected to become east/southeasterly during the afternoon, allowing for modest moisture return and destabilization in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. Forecast guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will develop as large-scale ascent increases in response to a shortwave impulse migrating through southwesterly flow, generating modest height falls across the region. Forecast soundings indicate a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v thermodynamic sub-cloud profiles amid 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated strong/severe gusts may accompany thunderstorm activity during the evening, especially if clustering/outflow consolidation occurs. ...Eastern ND into MN... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front by late Friday afternoon as the boundary impinges on richer boundary layer moisture. Initial capping should erode as the upper ridge shifts east toward the Great Lakes, resulting in falling heights/cooling aloft while warm advection continues in the low-levels. Even if weak capping is maintained, elevated convection is still expected. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg is forecast amid effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt, supporting robust updrafts and marginal supercells. Isolated hail will be possible in addition locally strong gusts. ...AZ... Modest boundary layer moisture and steep lapse rates will support around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorms will once again develop over higher terrain and move south during the evening. Mid and upper-level flow will be a bit more northerly compared to the prior few days and fairly weak (generally less than 15 kt). Nevertheless, deep mixing and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support sporadic strong gusts. Given somewhat less favorable flow compared to recent days, will hold off on marginal wind probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern High Plains and far eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota on Friday. ...Synopsis... A more progressive upper pattern in expected on Friday as an upper trough develops westward across the western U.S. This will shunt the Plains upper ridge east, extending from the Great Lakes, southward to the Gulf Coast states. While the upper trough envelops much of the western U.S., an upper anticyclone will remain centered over northern Baja, and extend northeast into AZ/NM. At the surface, a cold front will extend southward across the western Dakotas early in the day. The northern extent of the front will develop east toward the ND/MN border by 00z, while the SD portion of the front stalls and becomes diffuse. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a mostly dry airmass from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone over the Upper Midwest will allow for rich boundary layer moisture beneath the eastward-develop upper ridge. Southwesterly low-level flow across northwest Mexico into AZ will bring modest boundary-layer moisture into the southern AZ deserts as well. ...WY into western SD and Vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture is expected to modestly return in the wake of the morning cold front as the boundary stalls over western/central SD. Low-level flow is expected to become east/southeasterly during the afternoon, allowing for modest moisture return and destabilization in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. Forecast guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will develop as large-scale ascent increases in response to a shortwave impulse migrating through southwesterly flow, generating modest height falls across the region. Forecast soundings indicate a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v thermodynamic sub-cloud profiles amid 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated strong/severe gusts may accompany thunderstorm activity during the evening, especially if clustering/outflow consolidation occurs. ...Eastern ND into MN... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front by late Friday afternoon as the boundary impinges on richer boundary layer moisture. Initial capping should erode as the upper ridge shifts east toward the Great Lakes, resulting in falling heights/cooling aloft while warm advection continues in the low-levels. Even if weak capping is maintained, elevated convection is still expected. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg is forecast amid effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt, supporting robust updrafts and marginal supercells. Isolated hail will be possible in addition locally strong gusts. ...AZ... Modest boundary layer moisture and steep lapse rates will support around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorms will once again develop over higher terrain and move south during the evening. Mid and upper-level flow will be a bit more northerly compared to the prior few days and fairly weak (generally less than 15 kt). Nevertheless, deep mixing and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support sporadic strong gusts. Given somewhat less favorable flow compared to recent days, will hold off on marginal wind probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern High Plains and far eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota on Friday. ...Synopsis... A more progressive upper pattern in expected on Friday as an upper trough develops westward across the western U.S. This will shunt the Plains upper ridge east, extending from the Great Lakes, southward to the Gulf Coast states. While the upper trough envelops much of the western U.S., an upper anticyclone will remain centered over northern Baja, and extend northeast into AZ/NM. At the surface, a cold front will extend southward across the western Dakotas early in the day. The northern extent of the front will develop east toward the ND/MN border by 00z, while the SD portion of the front stalls and becomes diffuse. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a mostly dry airmass from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone over the Upper Midwest will allow for rich boundary layer moisture beneath the eastward-develop upper ridge. Southwesterly low-level flow across northwest Mexico into AZ will bring modest boundary-layer moisture into the southern AZ deserts as well. ...WY into western SD and Vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture is expected to modestly return in the wake of the morning cold front as the boundary stalls over western/central SD. Low-level flow is expected to become east/southeasterly during the afternoon, allowing for modest moisture return and destabilization in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. Forecast guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will develop as large-scale ascent increases in response to a shortwave impulse migrating through southwesterly flow, generating modest height falls across the region. Forecast soundings indicate a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v thermodynamic sub-cloud profiles amid 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated strong/severe gusts may accompany thunderstorm activity during the evening, especially if clustering/outflow consolidation occurs. ...Eastern ND into MN... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front by late Friday afternoon as the boundary impinges on richer boundary layer moisture. Initial capping should erode as the upper ridge shifts east toward the Great Lakes, resulting in falling heights/cooling aloft while warm advection continues in the low-levels. Even if weak capping is maintained, elevated convection is still expected. A narrow corridor of MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg is forecast amid effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt, supporting robust updrafts and marginal supercells. Isolated hail will be possible in addition locally strong gusts. ...AZ... Modest boundary layer moisture and steep lapse rates will support around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorms will once again develop over higher terrain and move south during the evening. Mid and upper-level flow will be a bit more northerly compared to the prior few days and fairly weak (generally less than 15 kt). Nevertheless, deep mixing and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support sporadic strong gusts. Given somewhat less favorable flow compared to recent days, will hold off on marginal wind probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears likely to remain seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies remain generally confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one significant short wave trough and embedded low currently progressing inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. This perturbation is forecast to continue slowly across and east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies today into early Friday, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the northern Canadian Prairies (near the northern Alberta/Saskatchewan border vicinity). While ridging to its east and south is likely to be maintained across the northern Great Plains/upper Mississippi Valley into the Southwest, models indicate that it may undergo at least some suppression, with the Southwestern mid-level high center shifting across western Arizona toward northern Baja. Farther downstream, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to continue slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with the primary embedded short wave digging southeast of the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley, before turning across and offshore of the New England coast. Seasonably high precipitable water content will generally remain confined to portions of the northwestern Gulf coast into lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states, and near the Southwestern international border area. ...Northern Rockies... Near/just ahead of the base of the mid-level short wave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana late this afternoon, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. With forecast soundings suggesting 40-60 degree F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating, a few strong downbursts are possible. Downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to the potential development of localized damaging wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening. ...Arizona... Perhaps aided by forcing associated with a perturbation progressing around the periphery of the mid-level high, thunderstorms appear likely to again initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwestern New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, northeasterly steering flow off the higher terrain toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations appears likely to remain focused across southeastern into adjacent portions of central Arizona, possibly including portions of the Greater Phoenix area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development today within a plume of seasonably high moisture content across eastern North Carolina and adjacent portions of northeastern South Carolina/southeastern Virginia. With moderate CAPE contributing to vigorous updrafts, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with potentially damaging surface gusts. ..Kerr/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears likely to remain seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies remain generally confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one significant short wave trough and embedded low currently progressing inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. This perturbation is forecast to continue slowly across and east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies today into early Friday, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the northern Canadian Prairies (near the northern Alberta/Saskatchewan border vicinity). While ridging to its east and south is likely to be maintained across the northern Great Plains/upper Mississippi Valley into the Southwest, models indicate that it may undergo at least some suppression, with the Southwestern mid-level high center shifting across western Arizona toward northern Baja. Farther downstream, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to continue slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with the primary embedded short wave digging southeast of the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley, before turning across and offshore of the New England coast. Seasonably high precipitable water content will generally remain confined to portions of the northwestern Gulf coast into lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states, and near the Southwestern international border area. ...Northern Rockies... Near/just ahead of the base of the mid-level short wave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana late this afternoon, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. With forecast soundings suggesting 40-60 degree F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating, a few strong downbursts are possible. Downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to the potential development of localized damaging wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening. ...Arizona... Perhaps aided by forcing associated with a perturbation progressing around the periphery of the mid-level high, thunderstorms appear likely to again initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwestern New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, northeasterly steering flow off the higher terrain toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations appears likely to remain focused across southeastern into adjacent portions of central Arizona, possibly including portions of the Greater Phoenix area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development today within a plume of seasonably high moisture content across eastern North Carolina and adjacent portions of northeastern South Carolina/southeastern Virginia. With moderate CAPE contributing to vigorous updrafts, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with potentially damaging surface gusts. ..Kerr/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears likely to remain seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies remain generally confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one significant short wave trough and embedded low currently progressing inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. This perturbation is forecast to continue slowly across and east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies today into early Friday, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the northern Canadian Prairies (near the northern Alberta/Saskatchewan border vicinity). While ridging to its east and south is likely to be maintained across the northern Great Plains/upper Mississippi Valley into the Southwest, models indicate that it may undergo at least some suppression, with the Southwestern mid-level high center shifting across western Arizona toward northern Baja. Farther downstream, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to continue slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with the primary embedded short wave digging southeast of the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley, before turning across and offshore of the New England coast. Seasonably high precipitable water content will generally remain confined to portions of the northwestern Gulf coast into lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states, and near the Southwestern international border area. ...Northern Rockies... Near/just ahead of the base of the mid-level short wave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana late this afternoon, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. With forecast soundings suggesting 40-60 degree F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating, a few strong downbursts are possible. Downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to the potential development of localized damaging wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening. ...Arizona... Perhaps aided by forcing associated with a perturbation progressing around the periphery of the mid-level high, thunderstorms appear likely to again initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwestern New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, northeasterly steering flow off the higher terrain toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations appears likely to remain focused across southeastern into adjacent portions of central Arizona, possibly including portions of the Greater Phoenix area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development today within a plume of seasonably high moisture content across eastern North Carolina and adjacent portions of northeastern South Carolina/southeastern Virginia. With moderate CAPE contributing to vigorous updrafts, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with potentially damaging surface gusts. ..Kerr/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears likely to remain seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies remain generally confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one significant short wave trough and embedded low currently progressing inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. This perturbation is forecast to continue slowly across and east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies today into early Friday, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the northern Canadian Prairies (near the northern Alberta/Saskatchewan border vicinity). While ridging to its east and south is likely to be maintained across the northern Great Plains/upper Mississippi Valley into the Southwest, models indicate that it may undergo at least some suppression, with the Southwestern mid-level high center shifting across western Arizona toward northern Baja. Farther downstream, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to continue slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with the primary embedded short wave digging southeast of the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley, before turning across and offshore of the New England coast. Seasonably high precipitable water content will generally remain confined to portions of the northwestern Gulf coast into lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states, and near the Southwestern international border area. ...Northern Rockies... Near/just ahead of the base of the mid-level short wave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana late this afternoon, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. With forecast soundings suggesting 40-60 degree F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating, a few strong downbursts are possible. Downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to the potential development of localized damaging wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening. ...Arizona... Perhaps aided by forcing associated with a perturbation progressing around the periphery of the mid-level high, thunderstorms appear likely to again initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwestern New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, northeasterly steering flow off the higher terrain toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations appears likely to remain focused across southeastern into adjacent portions of central Arizona, possibly including portions of the Greater Phoenix area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development today within a plume of seasonably high moisture content across eastern North Carolina and adjacent portions of northeastern South Carolina/southeastern Virginia. With moderate CAPE contributing to vigorous updrafts, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with potentially damaging surface gusts. ..Kerr/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1705 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559... FOR LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...Lower Deserts of Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559... Valid 250311Z - 250445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds remain possible with convection as it propagates southwest toward the lower deserts. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues to drift southwest toward the lower desert regions of Arizona late this evening. Much of this activity is struggling to maintain any appreciable intensity and lightning trends are gradually decreasing. Even so, boundary-layer lapse rates remain steep with surface temperatures holding above 100F where convective outflow has not modified conditions. Gusty winds may persist with the strongest convection the next few hours which may require locally extending the watch, but overall trends appear to be gradually decreasing. ..Darrow.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 32941203 32081073 31441094 32141266 33541337 33941260 32941203 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 02:37:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 03:22:40 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250236 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 Bud is a sheared tropical storm. The surface center lies near the eastern edge of the coldest cloud tops associated with recent bursts of deep convection. The sharp edge to the cloud tops indicates that easterly shear is restricting the upper-level outflow over the eastern portion of the circulation. TAFB provided a T-2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak estimate, which is consistent with the objective satellite intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The effects of moderate shear and some drier air in the surrounding environment could make it difficult for Bud to become better organized in the near term. While some slight strengthening cannot be ruled out given the small size of the storm, all of the dynamical intensity models show a weakening trend during the next couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Bud could struggle to produce organized convection by late Thursday. The latest NHC forecast calls for Bud to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 h and dissipate on Saturday. Bud is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. The storm should turn westward over the next day or so as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. No significant changes were made to the official NHC forecast for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 17.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 16.6N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250234 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250234 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 ...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 113.3W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.3 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.5, -113.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small portion of the Mid Atlantic. ...01z Update... ...Arizona... Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak northerly mid-level flow. Although boundary-layer moisture to the immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. ...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies... Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development overspreading the region through mid/late evening. ...Southeastern Virginia... Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30+ kt. ..Kerr.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small portion of the Mid Atlantic. ...01z Update... ...Arizona... Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak northerly mid-level flow. Although boundary-layer moisture to the immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. ...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies... Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development overspreading the region through mid/late evening. ...Southeastern Virginia... Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30+ kt. ..Kerr.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small portion of the Mid Atlantic. ...01z Update... ...Arizona... Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak northerly mid-level flow. Although boundary-layer moisture to the immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. ...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies... Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development overspreading the region through mid/late evening. ...Southeastern Virginia... Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30+ kt. ..Kerr.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small portion of the Mid Atlantic. ...01z Update... ...Arizona... Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak northerly mid-level flow. Although boundary-layer moisture to the immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. ...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies... Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development overspreading the region through mid/late evening. ...Southeastern Virginia... Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30+ kt. ..Kerr.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small portion of the Mid Atlantic. ...01z Update... ...Arizona... Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak northerly mid-level flow. Although boundary-layer moisture to the immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. ...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies... Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development overspreading the region through mid/late evening. ...Southeastern Virginia... Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30+ kt. ..Kerr.. 07/25/2024 Read more