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WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE MHN TO 30 NE VTN TO 55 SSE Y22 TO 15 SSW MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 ..WEINMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK NDC015-021-029-031-043-045-047-049-051-055-059-065-083-085-093- 101-103-300240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN WARD WELLS Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0562 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0562 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0562 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern South Dakota and far north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 292309Z - 300045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will continue with the most intense thunderstorms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KUDX indicates semi-discrete, splitting supercells generally tracking eastward across central/southern SD into far north-central NE this evening. These storms have been producing 60-65 mph gusts and hail up to 1.75 inches. Moderately unstable surface-based inflow -- characterized by upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints should support the maintenance or even intensification of these storms with eastward extent. Long/mostly straight hodographs (with some low-level clockwise curvature) should favor a continuation of splitting, semi-discrete supercells in the near-term. These storms will be capable of producing locally severe gusts near 75 mph and very large hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. In the near-term, this is especially the case with a dominant right-mover supercell cluster moving across portions of Jones and Mellette Counties, SD. While less certain, the aforementioned hodograph structure and semi-discrete supercell mode may support a brief tornado as well. With time, there may be a tendency for some of these storms to grow upscale as they intercept the richer boundary-layer moisture with eastward extent. This would favor an increasing damaging-wind risk. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43980089 44500137 44790137 45000113 45050062 45040000 44699938 43969912 43129909 42839948 42730020 42810080 42980096 43980089 Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MHN TO 40 NNE PHP TO 60 S Y22 TO 25 NW N60. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 ..WEINMAN..07/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-089-103-149-300140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK NDC015-021-029-031-037-043-045-047-049-051-055-057-059-065-083- 085-093-101-103-300140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN WARD WELLS Read more

MD 1731 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central North Dakota and north-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 292349Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken line segment has shown signs of recent intensification across portions of northwestern SD into southwestern ND as of 2340Z -- with several deep/embedded rotating cores along the consolidating cold pool. Over the next hour or so, this trend may continue as the convective line continues eastward. This will be aided by moderate surface-based pre-convective instability (increasing with eastward extent) and around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KBIS VWP) with a favorable line-normal component to the gust front. Given steep deep-layer lapse rates ahead of the line, severe gusts upwards of 65-75 mph will be possible, along with isolated large hail. Ahead of the line, a more discrete supercell mode persists, and these storms will pose the greater risk of large to very large hail in the near-term. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45220239 45730213 46580183 46740168 46860046 46760006 46419980 45559991 45000037 44830083 44810183 44950230 45220239 Read more

MD 1730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern South Dakota and far north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 292309Z - 300045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will continue with the most intense thunderstorms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KUDX indicates semi-discrete, splitting supercells generally tracking eastward across central/southern SD into far north-central NE this evening. These storms have been producing 60-65 mph gusts and hail up to 1.75 inches. Moderately unstable surface-based inflow -- characterized by upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints should support the maintenance or even intensification of these storms with eastward extent. Long/mostly straight hodographs (with some low-level clockwise curvature) should favor a continuation of splitting, semi-discrete supercells in the near-term. These storms will be capable of producing locally severe gusts near 75 mph and very large hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. In the near-term, this is especially the case with a dominant right-mover supercell cluster moving across portions of Jones and Mellette Counties, SD. While less certain, the aforementioned hodograph structure and semi-discrete supercell mode may support a brief tornado as well. With time, there may be a tendency for some of these storms to grow upscale as they intercept the richer boundary-layer moisture with eastward extent. This would favor an increasing damaging-wind risk. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43980089 44500137 44790137 45000113 45050062 45040000 44699938 43969912 43129909 42839948 42730020 42810080 42980096 43980089 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to become better organized
based on satellite imagery. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 1729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1729 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...eastern Illinois into central Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292058Z - 292330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears probable in the next 1-2 hours across eastern Illinois and far western Indiana. Watch issuance may be needed later this evening if robust supercells and/or an organized line can be established. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus along a diffuse trough axis to the south of a weak surface low/remnant MCV. Air mass recovery continues to the east of the trough axis with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints climbing well into the 70s. This is promoting a gradual expansion of MLCAPE values to the northeast with values ranging from 500-2000 J/kg from southern lower MI southward into southern IL/IN. The expectation is for thunderstorm development in the next couple of hours along the trough axis as the air mass continues to destabilize. 30-45 knot northwesterly mid-level winds on the southern periphery of the MCV combined with northerly surface winds are supporting effective bulk shear values near 40-50 knots nearly orthogonal to the trough axis. This may support a few initially discrete cells with an attendant large hail threat. With time upscale growth into an organized MCS appears likely given weaker wind shear near the low, which will favor thunderstorm clustering before storms propagate southward along the buoyancy gradient into the better deep-layer wind shear. As such, the potential for severe winds may increase later this evening across eastern IL into central and southern IN, and possibly into the lower OH River Valley. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed to address this concern. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39858876 39988833 40258776 40498747 40698718 41008693 41048659 40968627 40848585 40618540 40358502 40088481 39818472 39578472 38888497 38648513 38468535 38398573 38348623 38358646 38468713 38578763 38758801 39048834 39348864 39858876 Read more

MD 1727 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EASTWARD TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1727 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...the Nebraska Panhandle...eastward to south-central South Dakota and central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292025Z - 292300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm development expected in the next 60 to 90 minutes is expected, with an associated increase in severe potential thereafter. WW issuance may be required. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual evolution of TCU/small CB from the increasing cu field across eastern Wyoming and into western portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. The convection is developing with a modestly unstable environment, but greater CAPE is indicated with eastward extent toward central Nebraska/south-central South Dakota, where 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated. With that said, a rather dry environment is observed above the boundary layer -- confirmed by the special 19Z RAOB from KLBF showing only 1.05 PW. As such, questions regarding coverage of stronger convection continue to linger. While weak low-level flow is indicated, cloud-layer shear is sufficient for updraft organization, as flow in the 500 to 300 mb layer increases from around 25 kt to around 50 kt. This suggests that any storm which can become sustained, will be capable of producing hail and damaging gusts. Depending upon the degree of convective development and eventual coverage of robust storms, WW issuance may be required. ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41590368 42600330 43320130 43579936 42209881 41219992 41050251 41590368 Read more

The Glasgow Volunteer Fire Department urged the public to be especially cautious about fire safety. Severe drought was affecting more than half of the state, and the fire department was short on volunteers. WCHS-TV ABC 8 (Charleston, W.V.), July 29, 2024

MD 1728 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1728 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...far southeastern Montana eastward to the central Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292038Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is occurring from far southeastern Montana into west-central South Dakota, and should increase across the western and central Dakotas over the next 1 to 2 hours. WW issuance may be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show a lone thunderstorm developing over Meade County in South Dakota, and TCU/CB growth over far southeastern Montana along the southwestern North Dakota/northwestern South Dakota border area. The convection is developing on the western fringe of the CAPE axis, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE observed either side of the North Dakota/South Dakota border. Storm development -- though overall coverage appears likely to remain widely scattered -- is expected to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. Though low-level flow remains weak across the area, moderate mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear for organized/rotating updrafts. Presuming sufficient storm coverage evolves, risk for damaging winds and hail with the stronger cells will likely warrant WW issuance -- perhaps within the next hour or so. ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44260364 45250443 46880368 47740077 46609870 44689950 43890141 44260364 Read more

MD 1726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291938Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential may materialize in the next few hours across lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated given an overall modest kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...A cluster of poorly organized convection - driven by the remnant outflow of an early-morning MCS across the lower OH River Valley - has been percolating for much of the late morning/early afternoon hours. Over the past 30-60 minutes, regional reflectivity and velocity data has shown some tendency for consolidating outflows and the development of a more coherent cold pool to the south of the Nashville, TN area. This may be the start of a loosely organized convective line that should propagate to the southeast into parts of northeast AL and northern GA in the coming hours along a diffuse buoyancy gradient. This cluster is currently on the periphery of stronger flow aloft, but the KHPX and KOHX VWPs are sampling 25-30 knot winds between 5-6 km, which may be sufficient for similar effective bulk shear values given weak low-level flow. These mid-level winds are expected to spread southeast in tandem with the developing line, which may promote some degree of organization and longevity of the line. Consequently, the potential for damaging wind may increase in the next few hours if a coherent line can become organized. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35568771 35908776 36088729 36158658 35998604 35988587 34858414 34668390 34418384 34108392 33808427 33728463 33678503 33688555 33698611 33918650 35568771 Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0561 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0561 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0561 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 561 SEVERE TSTM ND NE SD 292125Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Dakota Northern Nebraska Central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and intensify across the watch area through the late afternoon and evening hours, with initial cells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds. The potential exists for more widespread wind damage potential by mid evening as storm clusters organize. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Bismarck ND to 10 miles south southeast of Ainsworth NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 29 21:16:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1725 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama to central Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291909Z - 292115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will continue to spread across portions of Alabama, Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas through the afternoon hours. A few stronger to severe thunderstorms are possible and will mainly pose a damaging wind threat. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites across AL, GA, and SC show widespread thunderstorm development as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s (and even low 90s in some locations) within a very moist environment (mid to upper 70s dewpoints), resulting in the erosion of any lingering SBCIN. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggests that portions of southeast AL into southwest and central GA currently have the more conducive environment for strong to severe thunderstorms with MLLCLs between 1-2 km, theta-e deficits above 30 K, and SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Very weak mid/upper-level flow will continue to favor pulse cellular convection and multi-cell clusters with relatively short longevity. However, these thermodynamic conditions should be favorable for strong downburst winds that may reach 50-60 mph. To the northeast across northeast GA and SC, more linear convection has developed along a residual outflow boundary with consolidating cold pools noted in regional velocity data. While the thermodynamic environment is not currently as favorable for strong/severe downbursts as further southwest, continued daytime heating should gradually improve low-level lapse rates through mid/late afternoon, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat. However, given the poor deep-layer wind shear, the overall severity of these lines/clusters will remain limited and precludes watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31128345 30868398 30838441 30928509 31138561 31458605 31818629 32358625 32808606 33078548 33208494 33298450 33378411 33758351 34138295 34828222 35168178 35318125 35198063 34948037 34518034 33898063 33208125 32588167 32188213 31838256 31578291 31308323 31128345 Read more