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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1735 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1735 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota...northeastern South Dakota...west central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564... Valid 300423Z - 300630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with strong to occasionally severe wind gusts likely will be maintained at least into the 1-2 AM CDT time frame, before beginning to weaken. DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of storms is maintaining organization, with a modest surface cold pool including 2 hourly pressure rises around 2 mb and a still relatively well-defined MCV progressing eastward to the southeast of Jamestown. Eastward propagation of the cold pool has been around 35-40 kt, resulting in strong easterly inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg. As the gust front passes east of the Minnesota state border between Ortonville MN and Fargo ND by around 0530Z, inflow may begin to become less moist and unstable, and more substantive weakening trends may ensue. Until then, though, strong to occasionally severe gusts probably will be maintained. ..Kerr.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 46519768 46739696 46789610 46489535 45089571 45149645 45419715 45639764 46089756 46519768 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Temperatures will warm into the 90s to low 100s F in the central Plains south of a surface low across NE/KS. Where this hot, deeply-mixed airmass overlaps a slightly cooler and less mixed airmass across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, very strong to extreme instability is anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected along the surface trough from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle given the hot airmass and height falls associated with the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains. The hot, and deeply mixed boundary layer across Kansas will support a threat for severe wind gusts. However, more organized storms are anticipated across eastern Nebraska and South Dakota where moderately strong mid-level flow (potentially approaching 45-50 knots), overspreads the region. This will result in shear favorable for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts initially with upscale growth likely during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Overnight maintenance/intensity of this MCS remains questionable as upper-level forcing associated with the mid-level trough continues, while inhibition increases and the low-level jet veers. ...Ohio Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere from eastern Missouri to western Indiana on Wednesday morning. Destabilization is expected to be rapid with inhibition eroded by mid-morning. This may allow for some re-intensification of this MCS as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually into Tennessee before eventually likely struggling as low-mid level temperatures increase. In the wake of this MCS, an outflow could be a focus for isolated thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening. The environment would be favorable for severe weather with moderate to strong instability and 45-50 knots of mid-level flow. However, height rises through the day will likely keep any storm coverage relatively sparse. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Temperatures will warm into the 90s to low 100s F in the central Plains south of a surface low across NE/KS. Where this hot, deeply-mixed airmass overlaps a slightly cooler and less mixed airmass across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, very strong to extreme instability is anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected along the surface trough from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle given the hot airmass and height falls associated with the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains. The hot, and deeply mixed boundary layer across Kansas will support a threat for severe wind gusts. However, more organized storms are anticipated across eastern Nebraska and South Dakota where moderately strong mid-level flow (potentially approaching 45-50 knots), overspreads the region. This will result in shear favorable for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts initially with upscale growth likely during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Overnight maintenance/intensity of this MCS remains questionable as upper-level forcing associated with the mid-level trough continues, while inhibition increases and the low-level jet veers. ...Ohio Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere from eastern Missouri to western Indiana on Wednesday morning. Destabilization is expected to be rapid with inhibition eroded by mid-morning. This may allow for some re-intensification of this MCS as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually into Tennessee before eventually likely struggling as low-mid level temperatures increase. In the wake of this MCS, an outflow could be a focus for isolated thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening. The environment would be favorable for severe weather with moderate to strong instability and 45-50 knots of mid-level flow. However, height rises through the day will likely keep any storm coverage relatively sparse. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Temperatures will warm into the 90s to low 100s F in the central Plains south of a surface low across NE/KS. Where this hot, deeply-mixed airmass overlaps a slightly cooler and less mixed airmass across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, very strong to extreme instability is anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected along the surface trough from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle given the hot airmass and height falls associated with the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains. The hot, and deeply mixed boundary layer across Kansas will support a threat for severe wind gusts. However, more organized storms are anticipated across eastern Nebraska and South Dakota where moderately strong mid-level flow (potentially approaching 45-50 knots), overspreads the region. This will result in shear favorable for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts initially with upscale growth likely during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Overnight maintenance/intensity of this MCS remains questionable as upper-level forcing associated with the mid-level trough continues, while inhibition increases and the low-level jet veers. ...Ohio Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere from eastern Missouri to western Indiana on Wednesday morning. Destabilization is expected to be rapid with inhibition eroded by mid-morning. This may allow for some re-intensification of this MCS as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually into Tennessee before eventually likely struggling as low-mid level temperatures increase. In the wake of this MCS, an outflow could be a focus for isolated thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening. The environment would be favorable for severe weather with moderate to strong instability and 45-50 knots of mid-level flow. However, height rises through the day will likely keep any storm coverage relatively sparse. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Temperatures will warm into the 90s to low 100s F in the central Plains south of a surface low across NE/KS. Where this hot, deeply-mixed airmass overlaps a slightly cooler and less mixed airmass across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, very strong to extreme instability is anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected along the surface trough from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle given the hot airmass and height falls associated with the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains. The hot, and deeply mixed boundary layer across Kansas will support a threat for severe wind gusts. However, more organized storms are anticipated across eastern Nebraska and South Dakota where moderately strong mid-level flow (potentially approaching 45-50 knots), overspreads the region. This will result in shear favorable for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts initially with upscale growth likely during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Overnight maintenance/intensity of this MCS remains questionable as upper-level forcing associated with the mid-level trough continues, while inhibition increases and the low-level jet veers. ...Ohio Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere from eastern Missouri to western Indiana on Wednesday morning. Destabilization is expected to be rapid with inhibition eroded by mid-morning. This may allow for some re-intensification of this MCS as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually into Tennessee before eventually likely struggling as low-mid level temperatures increase. In the wake of this MCS, an outflow could be a focus for isolated thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening. The environment would be favorable for severe weather with moderate to strong instability and 45-50 knots of mid-level flow. However, height rises through the day will likely keep any storm coverage relatively sparse. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2024 Read more