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WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0564 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MHN TO 25 WSW MHE TO 25 NNE MBG TO 45 ESE MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 ..WEINMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-300340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK NDC015-021-029-031-043-045-047-051-083-093-103-300340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH SHERIDAN STUTSMAN WELLS SDC003-005-013-021-023-043-045-049-053-059-073-089-115-300340- SD Read more

MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern South Dakota...northeastern Nebraska...and western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 300056Z - 300300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms currently over south-central South Dakota should continue tracking southeastward across northeastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, and western Iowa tonight. Scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch may be needed for parts of the area within the hour or so. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster with a history of producing severe wind gusts over south-central SD (recently measured 84 mph gust in Tripp County, SD) is merging with other severe storms in its immediate vicinity. This trend of upscale growth may continue over the next few hours, as these storms continue tracking southeastward amid a gradually strengthening low-level jet. Ahead of the storms, a northwest/southeast corridor of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is in place, as well as 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented perpendicular to the evolving/upscale-growing cold pool. These factors should support the maintenance or intensification of an upscale-growing cluster of severe storms, capable of producing scattered severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) and instances of large hail. While generally weak large-scale ascent casts some uncertainty on this scenario (especially with southeastward extent), the overall setup seems to likely warrant a watch for parts of the area within the hour or so. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 42639875 43109861 43689822 43769783 43669721 43089596 42479502 41999490 41169549 41069600 41359706 41979833 42269869 42639875 Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH AND MUCH OF KY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph remain possible tonight across parts of the central and northern Plains. Another area of severe storms, with potential for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes, will affect portions of central/southern Illinois and Indiana into Kentucky tonight. ...Central/northern Plains... One intense thunderstorm cluster has evolved this evening across south-central SD, with another developing across northern SD/southern ND. Moderate to strong buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on 00Z regional soundings) will continue to support organized severe-thunderstorm potential. Any remaining discrete cells will continue to pose a threat of large hail, while the developing storm clusters could pose an increasing threat of severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) through the evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded south and east to cover the potential severe-wind threat into late tonight. See MCD 1732 for more information regarding the threat across parts of southeast SD into eastern NE and western IA. ...IL/IN/KY vicinity... Robust storms are beginning to develop across parts of central IL/IN this evening, within an environment characterized by very rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Initial discrete development could pose a threat of hail and a couple of tornadoes, with some increase in low-level shear expected through the evening. Eventually, an upscale-growing cluster may develop and move southeastward, with an increasing damaging-wind threat into parts of KY. ...GA... A few stronger southward-moving storm clusters persist this evening across parts of western/central GA. These could continue to pose a short-term threat of damaging wind, before an expected weakening trend later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/30/2024 Read more

MD 1731 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central North Dakota and north-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 292349Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken line segment has shown signs of recent intensification across portions of northwestern SD into southwestern ND as of 2340Z -- with several deep/embedded rotating cores along the consolidating cold pool. Over the next hour or so, this trend may continue as the convective line continues eastward. This will be aided by moderate surface-based pre-convective instability (increasing with eastward extent) and around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KBIS VWP) with a favorable line-normal component to the gust front. Given steep deep-layer lapse rates ahead of the line, severe gusts upwards of 65-75 mph will be possible, along with isolated large hail. Ahead of the line, a more discrete supercell mode persists, and these storms will pose the greater risk of large to very large hail in the near-term. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45220239 45730213 46580183 46740168 46860046 46760006 46419980 45559991 45000037 44830083 44810183 44950230 45220239 Read more