Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located very near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 11:40:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:35:06 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271140 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN HUGGING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 102.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 102.9 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through today, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Rosado

...JOHN HUGGING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 17.9, -102.9 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

MD 2123 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 686...687... FOR EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...South Carolina...Southern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 686...687... Valid 270917Z - 271115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 687 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue tonight from eastern Georgia into South Carolina and southern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Helene is currently moving northward through east-central Georgia. Mosaic radar imagery shows that rainbands extend outward up to 200 statute miles to the north of Helene. Within these rainbands, several discrete cells are ongoing across eastern South Carolina, where the tornado threat is maximized at this time. The WSR-88D VWP at Wilmington, North Carolina appears representative of the environment from the middle South Carolina coast northward to Wilmington, and has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will continue to support a tornado threat as thunderstorms move north-northwestward across South Carolina over the next several hours. The tornado threat should gradually move northward into southern and central North Carolina. ..Broyles.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 33418209 32168234 31598175 31308129 31258061 32037973 32227954 33227865 33927827 34607829 35017883 35147995 34998102 34218187 33418209 Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MCN TO 30 W VDI TO 25 SE VDI TO 70 ESE SAV. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-033-051-073-103-107-125-141-163-165-167-175-181-189-245- 251-265-279-283-301-303-317-319-271040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BURKE CHATHAM COLUMBIA EFFINGHAM EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-271040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND GASTON HOKE MECKLENBURG Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MCN TO 30 W VDI TO 25 SE VDI TO 70 ESE SAV. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-033-051-073-103-107-125-141-163-165-167-175-181-189-245- 251-265-279-283-301-303-317-319-271040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BURKE CHATHAM COLUMBIA EFFINGHAM EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-271040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND GASTON HOKE MECKLENBURG Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MCN TO 30 W VDI TO 25 SE VDI TO 70 ESE SAV. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-033-051-073-103-107-125-141-163-165-167-175-181-189-245- 251-265-279-283-301-303-317-319-271040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BURKE CHATHAM COLUMBIA EFFINGHAM EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-271040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND GASTON HOKE MECKLENBURG Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MCN TO 30 W VDI TO 25 SE VDI TO 70 ESE SAV. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-033-051-073-103-107-125-141-163-165-167-175-181-189-245- 251-265-279-283-301-303-317-319-271040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BURKE CHATHAM COLUMBIA EFFINGHAM EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-271040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND GASTON HOKE MECKLENBURG Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MCN TO 30 W VDI TO 25 SE VDI TO 70 ESE SAV. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-033-051-073-103-107-125-141-163-165-167-175-181-189-245- 251-265-279-283-301-303-317-319-271040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BURKE CHATHAM COLUMBIA EFFINGHAM EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-271040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND GASTON HOKE MECKLENBURG Read more

WW 687 TORNADO GA NC SC CW 270055Z - 271200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Georgia Southern North Carolina South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 855 PM until 800 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Low-topped thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Helene will pose a threat for several tornadoes this evening through much of the overnight period, and continuing into early Friday morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Vidalia GA to 40 miles west northwest of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 684...WW 685...WW 686... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18050. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:02:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:35:06 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 521 WTPZ45 KNHC 270900 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a partially exposed surface center with a primary banding feature wrapping around from the southeast. A few fragmented intermittent bursts of deep convection are also evident in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and a UW-CIMSS DMINT objective estimate using SSMIS F16-17 passes of 56 and 55 kt, respectively. Gradual weakening should continue as the cyclone approaches and moves inland. The high terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains is expected to disrupt what remains of John's inner core and should cause a faster rate of weakening. Therefore, John is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hrs. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days; however, regeneration appears unlikely. The NHC intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the global model guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/4 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with the rugged mountainous terrain. The track forecast favors a compromise of the global model solutions and is just to the right of the HCCA consensus aid. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through today. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.8N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:58:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:58:18 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270854 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 11 30(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270854 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 102.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270854 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 102.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 102.9 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through today, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JOHN CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 17.8, -102.9 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 102.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN