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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A small Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of south-central NV. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in sustained 15 mph winds across this region with no appreciable moisture recovery expected over the next 24 hours. The spatial extent of 15+ mph winds appears to be greater in recent model solutions, which has increased confidence in observing at least a few hours of meeting elevated wind/RH criteria over a region with drying fuels. Windier/drier solutions also hint that gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible and may support very localized and transient critical fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A small Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of south-central NV. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in sustained 15 mph winds across this region with no appreciable moisture recovery expected over the next 24 hours. The spatial extent of 15+ mph winds appears to be greater in recent model solutions, which has increased confidence in observing at least a few hours of meeting elevated wind/RH criteria over a region with drying fuels. Windier/drier solutions also hint that gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible and may support very localized and transient critical fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A small Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of south-central NV. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in sustained 15 mph winds across this region with no appreciable moisture recovery expected over the next 24 hours. The spatial extent of 15+ mph winds appears to be greater in recent model solutions, which has increased confidence in observing at least a few hours of meeting elevated wind/RH criteria over a region with drying fuels. Windier/drier solutions also hint that gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible and may support very localized and transient critical fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A small Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of south-central NV. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in sustained 15 mph winds across this region with no appreciable moisture recovery expected over the next 24 hours. The spatial extent of 15+ mph winds appears to be greater in recent model solutions, which has increased confidence in observing at least a few hours of meeting elevated wind/RH criteria over a region with drying fuels. Windier/drier solutions also hint that gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible and may support very localized and transient critical fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A small Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of south-central NV. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in sustained 15 mph winds across this region with no appreciable moisture recovery expected over the next 24 hours. The spatial extent of 15+ mph winds appears to be greater in recent model solutions, which has increased confidence in observing at least a few hours of meeting elevated wind/RH criteria over a region with drying fuels. Windier/drier solutions also hint that gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible and may support very localized and transient critical fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ILM TO 20 NNE AVC TO 20 NNW GSO. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-065-073-079-083-091-095-103- 107-117-131-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-271940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-053-067-081-083-089-093-095-111-135- 143-147-175-181-183-199-550-590-595-620-650-680-690-700-710-735- 740-800-810-830-271940- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD Read more

MD 2125 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 688... FOR EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern NC and southern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 688... Valid 271633Z - 271830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues. SUMMARY...A few brief tornadoes remain possible through the rest of the afternoon as a weakening band of showers with embedded thunderstorms moves across parts of eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia. DISCUSSION...Despite numerous low-level mesocyclones during the late morning to midday, tornadogenesis has largely appeared elusive within a persistent band of convection from the central NC/VA border area southward into coastal far southern NC. One strong meso with the deepest updraft last hour may have briefly produced in southern NC per an ILM LSR. Low-level winds have subsided across the coastal plain via LTX VWP data, but do remain sufficient for a brief tornado threat amid 74-78 F surface dew points and temperatures in the low 80s. Farther north, low-level hodographs remain rather enlarged, but will shrink throughout the afternoon. Morning CAM guidance suggest a breakup to the convective band should occur, which will yield a more cellular mode. This would favor potential for a few tornadoes, but should be tempered by the otherwise diminishing shear/ascent environment. ..Grams.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 36577861 37157890 37617879 37827839 37877761 37627677 37267624 36667590 35907601 35007620 34257735 34067779 34077814 35217808 36577861 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just inland over southwestern Mexico.

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system could form early next week off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271750 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 103.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 103.2 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight as the center continues to interact with the higher terrain of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with locally over 10 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 6 inches are expected today across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.3, -103.2 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CRE TO 20 S AVC TO 20 W DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-073-079-083-091-095- 103-107-117-127-129-131-133-137-139-141-143-147-177-185-187-191- 195-271840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC009-011-019-025-029-031-037-053-067-081-083-089-093-095-111- 117-135-143-147-175-181-183-199-550-590-595-620-650-680-690-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-271840- Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more