Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period, while weak lee troughing persists over the central High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico and parts of the Southern High Plains... Diurnally driven boundary-layer heating/mixing beneath a stream of mid/high-level clouds will contribute to 15-20 percent RH during the afternoon. While the pressure gradient will be modest, downward momentum transfer within the well-mixed boundary layer will support around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). As a result, critical conditions are expected across southern NM into parts of the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more