Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more