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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...OH/MS Valleys through tonight... In response to an ejecting midlevel trough and associated 110 kt 500 mb jet streak, a surface cyclone will develop northeastward from IA to Lake Superior. Severe storms are ongoing in a broken band from west central IL across MO into northwest AR/eastern OK, which demarcates the effective frontal zone and focus for additional storm development through the afternoon. The warm sector in advance of these storms is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s across IL/MO and near 70 F from the Ark-La-Tex into the Ark-La-Miss. Low-level moisture will continue to spread northward through the day on 50-70 kt flow 1-2 km above ground level, and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range with only weak convective inhibition through the afternoon. The northern extent of the surface warm sector (northeast IL across northern IN/northwest OH/southern Lower MI) will be modulated by ongoing convection. The primary jet streak/cyclone will be displaced northwest of the unstable warm sector, though flow will remain strong in the warm sector with long hodographs and substantial low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Convective mode is expected to be somewhat messy with embedded supercells within an increasingly extensive band of storms through the afternoon/evening. Convective inhibition will be sufficiently weak to support some potential for a few supercells ahead of the band in the open warm sector. The tornado threat will be maximized for the more discrete storms within or ahead of the main band, where a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, evolution into an extensive squall line is expected with an accompanying threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) and occasional large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter - especially with persistent supercells). Overnight, the northern portion of the squall line will eventually move east of the more unstable warm sector and weaken from OH into western PA. The southern portion of the convective band is expected to pivot gradually to a more WSW-ENE orientation favoring training convection along and atop the conglomerate cold pool. ...North TX/southeast OK this evening through Thursday morning... In the wake of the ejecting IA-Lake Superior jet streak, midlevel flow will tend to amplify/back with time over TX, downstream of the amplifying large-scale trough over the Southwest. This will contribute to weak cyclogenesis across northwest TX along the residual baroclinic zone, and a strengthening warm advection regime along/north of the boundary tonight. The open warm sector will likely remain capped (per the warm elevated mixed layer observed this morning over TX), but the environment will favor elevated supercells to the cool side of the boundary. Very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts will be the main threats with these elevated storms overnight. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/02/2025 Read more

A burn ban took effect in Lake County on Tuesday, March 25, as drought and wildfire conditions persisted. WKMG-TV CBS 6 Click Orlando (Fla.), March 25, 2025

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MLC TO 30 NW FSM TO 25 ESE GMJ TO 20 NNE UMN TO 35 ESE SZL. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-059-077-105-109-119-131-141-167-209-213-225- 021640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER OKC079-135-021640- Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MLC TO 30 NW FSM TO 25 ESE GMJ TO 20 NNE UMN TO 35 ESE SZL. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-059-077-105-109-119-131-141-167-209-213-225- 021640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER OKC079-135-021640- Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MLC TO 30 NW FSM TO 25 ESE GMJ TO 20 NNE UMN TO 35 ESE SZL. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-059-077-105-109-119-131-141-167-209-213-225- 021640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER OKC079-135-021640- Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MLC TO 30 NW FSM TO 25 ESE GMJ TO 20 NNE UMN TO 35 ESE SZL. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-059-077-105-109-119-131-141-167-209-213-225- 021640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER OKC079-135-021640- Read more

The statewide burn ban that took effect on March 21 in North Carolina has been lifted after adequate rainfall dampened the fire danger somewhat. The state Forest Service listed 56 active wildfires through the evening of April 1, with the largest in Polk and Henderson counties that have burned around 7,700 acres. The three blazes that comprised the Black Cove Complex have been fed by dry, breezy conditions and massive amounts of timber downed by Hurricane Helene six months ago. Island Free Press (Hatteras, N.C.), April 2, 2025

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 1 17:55:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 1 17:55:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night across the southern Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and North Texas into the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will accelerate northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and primary shortwave impulse will support a deep (~990mb) surface low moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will rapidly move north through the morning which will allow for a broad warm sector featuring 60s F dewpoints to expand as far north as eastern Iowa to north-central Ohio/southern Michigan by Wednesday afternoon/evening. A cold front attendant to the deep surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at daybreak. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from northeast Texas to the Upper Midwest at the beginning of the period. East of this activity, a warm front will surge rapidly north across Illinois and Indiana with mid 60s dewpoints expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley by mid-day. As temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, moderate to strong instability will develop by early afternoon. A cap, centered around 700mb, should keep deeper convection suppressed for much of the day. However, as height falls overspread the warm sector after 21Z and ascent increases in the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, this cap will erode. Simultaneously, even richer low-level theta-e, with upper 60s dewpoints and mean mixing ratio in excess of 14 g/kg will advect into the mid-Mississippi valley. This will provide an environment for explosive supercell development given 45-55 knots of effective shear. In addition, low-level shear will support the threat for tornadoes. A broad, strong low-level jet will be present across the warm sector for the entire day. However, there will be some relative weakening during the 18-22Z period. This may limit the tornado threat initially, but by 00Z, most guidance shows a renewed low-level jet strengthening and elongating of the hodographs. Therefore, the primary threat could be hail for a few hours during the evening before the tornado threat increases by 23Z-00Z and persists into the evening hours. Orientation of the storms and potential for training do provide some uncertainty, but in the moist environment, expect multiple mature supercells to persist into the evening when very strong low-level shear develops. Multiple strong to potentially intense tornadoes are possible during this period. ...North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex. ...Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes... A conditional, potentially potent, severe weather threat could materialize across northern Illinois and into southern Michigan on Wednesday. This area, closer to the surface low and beneath the very strong mid-level jet streak, will have a wind profile favorable for all severe weather hazards. However, destabilization will depend heavily on the overnight convection Tuesday night from the central Plains into Missouri. If morning convection can clear, and especially if even broken clouds can permit some heating across some of the region, a greater tornado threat is possible across parts of northern Illinois. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night across the southern Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and North Texas into the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will accelerate northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and primary shortwave impulse will support a deep (~990mb) surface low moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will rapidly move north through the morning which will allow for a broad warm sector featuring 60s F dewpoints to expand as far north as eastern Iowa to north-central Ohio/southern Michigan by Wednesday afternoon/evening. A cold front attendant to the deep surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at daybreak. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from northeast Texas to the Upper Midwest at the beginning of the period. East of this activity, a warm front will surge rapidly north across Illinois and Indiana with mid 60s dewpoints expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley by mid-day. As temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, moderate to strong instability will develop by early afternoon. A cap, centered around 700mb, should keep deeper convection suppressed for much of the day. However, as height falls overspread the warm sector after 21Z and ascent increases in the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, this cap will erode. Simultaneously, even richer low-level theta-e, with upper 60s dewpoints and mean mixing ratio in excess of 14 g/kg will advect into the mid-Mississippi valley. This will provide an environment for explosive supercell development given 45-55 knots of effective shear. In addition, low-level shear will support the threat for tornadoes. A broad, strong low-level jet will be present across the warm sector for the entire day. However, there will be some relative weakening during the 18-22Z period. This may limit the tornado threat initially, but by 00Z, most guidance shows a renewed low-level jet strengthening and elongating of the hodographs. Therefore, the primary threat could be hail for a few hours during the evening before the tornado threat increases by 23Z-00Z and persists into the evening hours. Orientation of the storms and potential for training do provide some uncertainty, but in the moist environment, expect multiple mature supercells to persist into the evening when very strong low-level shear develops. Multiple strong to potentially intense tornadoes are possible during this period. ...North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex. ...Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes... A conditional, potentially potent, severe weather threat could materialize across northern Illinois and into southern Michigan on Wednesday. This area, closer to the surface low and beneath the very strong mid-level jet streak, will have a wind profile favorable for all severe weather hazards. However, destabilization will depend heavily on the overnight convection Tuesday night from the central Plains into Missouri. If morning convection can clear, and especially if even broken clouds can permit some heating across some of the region, a greater tornado threat is possible across parts of northern Illinois. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central to northeast Oklahoma Central to eastern Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with the strong tornado risk persisting into the overnight. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more