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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC...ERN VA...SERN PA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity may continue to pose the risk for locally damaging wind gusts while overspreading the Chesapeake Bay and northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity late this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Atlantic... Given the modest strength of the southwesterly deep-layer mean flow (around 40 kt), with the loss of boundary-layer heating, thermodynamic profiles near/east of the pre-frontal surface trough across the Mid Atlantic vicinity are becoming increasingly marginal for convective development capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms linger near a weak surface trough across the east central Florida Peninsula, where mixed-layer CAPE is moderately large, but diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. Given the rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow and modest deep-layer shear, thunderstorm intensities are expected to wane within the next hour or two. ...Deep South Texas... Another isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed to the east of Laredo near a diffuse dryline, as an initial severe storm near the San Antonio vicinity dissipated. However, given the inhibition associated with warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air present across the region, this latest cell is not expected to be long-lived, as boundary-layer cooling proceeds and inhibition increases further. ..Kerr.. 04/01/2025 Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CRE TO 15 SW GSB TO 5 S RZZ. ..SPC..04/01/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-047-061-065-079-083-107-117-127-147-163-191-195-010140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN COLUMBUS DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HALIFAX LENOIR MARTIN NASH PITT SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CRE TO 15 SW GSB TO 5 S RZZ. ..SPC..04/01/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-047-061-065-079-083-107-117-127-147-163-191-195-010140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN COLUMBUS DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HALIFAX LENOIR MARTIN NASH PITT SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 90 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 312005Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Southern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters and a linear band of thunderstorms will move east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will pose primarily a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Raleigh NC to 40 miles southeast of Florence SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

MD 0331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia and southern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312231Z - 010030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern Virginia and southern Maryland for an increase in strong/severe storm potential. The primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. It is still unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is advancing east-northeastward across central Virginia -- ahead of a broad midlevel trough and related surface front. Ahead of these storms, earlier diurnal heating has resulted in upper 70s/lower 80s surface temperatures and steep boundary-layer lapse rates (see 18Z IAD sounding) amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. Despite this low-level destabilization, weak midlevel lapse rates are still limiting buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg). Around 40 kt of west-southwesterly deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the band of showers and storms could result in some convective organization with eastward extent, and the steep low-level lapse rates may promote damaging wind gusts -- depending on how organized the cold pool can become. Given the weak buoyancy, it is still unclear if a watch is needed, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 36807803 37167825 38377799 38917767 39237716 39277677 39087599 38727572 37807575 36917608 36657657 36707762 36807803 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...South-Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312236Z - 010030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with very isolated storms that develop across south central Texas early this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across far West TX early this evening. This feature is approaching the back edge of higher PW air mass that has been shunted into south central TX. Latest diagnostic data suggests the boundary is draped across the San Antonio metro to north of Hondo. Surface temperatures have warmed well into the 90s south of the front and convective temperatures have been breached along this zone of low-level confluence. As a result, a few thunderstorms have recently developed and there is adequate deep-layer flow for sustaining robust updrafts. Latest radar data suggests hail is likely occurring with this activity and this may continue for the next few hours, possibly sagging south before nocturnal cooling contributes to weakening updrafts. A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. ..Darrow/Mosier.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX... LAT...LON 29799920 29649846 28799857 28759928 29519969 29799920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0333 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90... Valid 312306Z - 010000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts (generally 60-70 mph) will continue to the coast in eastern South Carolina. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented QLCS that previously overtook a semi-discrete supercell is tracking east-northeastward at around 40 kt across far eastern SC. A well-established cold pool and persistent deep/embedded updrafts continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts (generally 60-70 mph) -- especially given the favorable perpendicular orientation of around 40 kt of 0-6 km (per VWP data) to the leading gust front. This severe wind risk will persist to the coast. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 32917970 33487960 33787969 34007957 34187926 34177896 33997862 33827860 33247898 32857940 32917970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY TO 30 NE OGB. ..SPC..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-047-067-089-121-123-312240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON LAFAYETTE NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-039-049-051-065-069-101-103-109-127- 179-183-191-229-251-267-299-305-312240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE SCREVEN TATTNALL WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY TO 30 NE OGB. ..SPC..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-047-067-089-121-123-312240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON LAFAYETTE NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-039-049-051-065-069-101-103-109-127- 179-183-191-229-251-267-299-305-312240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE SCREVEN TATTNALL WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 311915Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southern and Southeast Georgia Southern into Central South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east into the Watch area this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) are the primary hazard and will mainly focus with the stronger surges and inflections within the thunderstorm band. A brief tornado is possible with a stronger mesovortex or embedded circulation within the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Orangeburg SC to 65 miles south of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Smith Read more

MD 0334 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90... Valid 312327Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph) continues to increase across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90. DISCUSSION...Radar data from KRAX depicts recent intensification of a north/south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The inflow for these storms is characterized by middle/upper 70s temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints beneath modest midlevel lapse rates (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). This, combined with around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per RAX VWP data), should support a continued risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph), given the linear mode/established cold pool. Trends are also being monitored for a possible downstream watch into southeastern Virginia. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 35577870 36317851 36877802 36977757 36917713 36697684 35857714 35417769 35407835 35577870 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0333 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90... Valid 312306Z - 010000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts (generally 60-70 mph) will continue to the coast in eastern South Carolina. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented QLCS that previously overtook a semi-discrete supercell is tracking east-northeastward at around 40 kt across far eastern SC. A well-established cold pool and persistent deep/embedded updrafts continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts (generally 60-70 mph) -- especially given the favorable perpendicular orientation of around 40 kt of 0-6 km (per VWP data) to the leading gust front. This severe wind risk will persist to the coast. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 32917970 33487960 33787969 34007957 34187926 34177896 33997862 33827860 33247898 32857940 32917970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...South-Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312236Z - 010030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with very isolated storms that develop across south central Texas early this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across far West TX early this evening. This feature is approaching the back edge of higher PW air mass that has been shunted into south central TX. Latest diagnostic data suggests the boundary is draped across the San Antonio metro to north of Hondo. Surface temperatures have warmed well into the 90s south of the front and convective temperatures have been breached along this zone of low-level confluence. As a result, a few thunderstorms have recently developed and there is adequate deep-layer flow for sustaining robust updrafts. Latest radar data suggests hail is likely occurring with this activity and this may continue for the next few hours, possibly sagging south before nocturnal cooling contributes to weakening updrafts. A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. ..Darrow/Mosier.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX... LAT...LON 29799920 29649846 28799857 28759928 29519969 29799920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia and southern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312231Z - 010030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern Virginia and southern Maryland for an increase in strong/severe storm potential. The primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. It is still unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is advancing east-northeastward across central Virginia -- ahead of a broad midlevel trough and related surface front. Ahead of these storms, earlier diurnal heating has resulted in upper 70s/lower 80s surface temperatures and steep boundary-layer lapse rates (see 18Z IAD sounding) amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. Despite this low-level destabilization, weak midlevel lapse rates are still limiting buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg). Around 40 kt of west-southwesterly deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the band of showers and storms could result in some convective organization with eastward extent, and the steep low-level lapse rates may promote damaging wind gusts -- depending on how organized the cold pool can become. Given the weak buoyancy, it is still unclear if a watch is needed, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 36807803 37167825 38377799 38917767 39237716 39277677 39087599 38727572 37807575 36917608 36657657 36707762 36807803 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S FLO TO 5 ENE SOP TO 20 SE DAN. ..SPC..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-093-101-105- 107-117-125-127-135-145-147-155-163-165-181-183-185-191-195- 010040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH ORANGE PERSON PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC033-041-043-051-067-089-010040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN Read more

WW 90 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 312005Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Southern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters and a linear band of thunderstorms will move east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will pose primarily a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Raleigh NC to 40 miles southeast of Florence SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 31 22:09:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Northern Virginia into central Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania...and northwest New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311933Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected within the next couple of hours across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. The convective environment should support a damaging wind threat into the evening hours. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, GOES visible imagery has shown a gradual increase in agitated cumulus within a deepening trough axis in the lee of the central Appalachians. Steady diurnal heating under broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance, which suggests that thunderstorm initiation should become increasingly probable in the next couple of hours. Buoyancy on the northern periphery of returning moisture appears to be meager due to somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates and overall low quality moisture. This will modulate updraft intensities to some degree, but strong speed shear noted in upstream VWPs should help promote longevity of initially semi-discrete cells. Mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the lee trough axis will likely promote upscale growth with time and perhaps an increasing damaging wind threat as cold pools amalgamate within an environment featuring low-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when thunderstorm development becomes more imminent and storm coverage becomes sufficient for a more widespread threat across the region. ..Moore/Smith.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39367618 38907719 38397825 38347865 38507884 38687899 38917900 39237878 39507844 39777794 41307567 41467502 41267454 40897427 40457437 39967509 39367618 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-017-037-047-051-057-061-063-065-067-069-077-079-081- 083-085-093-101-105-107-117-123-125-127-135-145-147-151-153-155- 163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-312240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BLADEN CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH ORANGE PERSON PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-312240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-017-037-047-051-057-061-063-065-067-069-077-079-081- 083-085-093-101-105-107-117-123-125-127-135-145-147-151-153-155- 163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-312240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BLADEN CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH ORANGE PERSON PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-312240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more