Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0098 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0098 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0355 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 021751Z - 021945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development. Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment, a tornado watch is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35159158 36879023 37538914 37448812 36688817 35158974 34639056 34599098 34759142 35159158 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more