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MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE/NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Middle/northeast TN into southeast KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031441Z - 031615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring for storm intensification through the morning. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time. DISCUSSION...Occasional supercell structures continue to be observed this morning with convection moving across middle/northeast TN. Thus far, these cells have generally stayed north of an outflow boundary draped across the region, though the cell currently south of Nashville is located in the immediate vicinity of this front. With some heating/destabilization ongoing south of the front, there will be some potential for storm intensification with cells that can remain rooted near the boundary, which may move northward through the day. With MLCAPE expected to increase through the 500-1000 J/kg along/south of the front and favorable wind profiles expected to persist through the day, some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time near the boundary, with an isolated hail and damaging wind threat north of the boundary. However, with generally modest large-scale ascent expected through the morning, the short-term severe threat and need for watch issuance remains uncertain. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36248666 37098489 37358389 37178332 36978312 36878304 36608303 36088384 35928449 35838494 35748547 35648610 35648662 36248666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...South-central into southeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031355Z - 031530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will spread northeastward this morning. The longevity of the morning threat remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Despite being elevated above an outflow-reinforced front draped across north TX, a bowing segment has recently produced several severe gusts ranging from 63-72 mph across south-central OK. This bowing segment is moving along the gradient of elevated buoyancy, with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt) providing a favorable environment for maintenance of this bow as it moves east-northeastward. Given its elevated nature and location near the gradient of favorable MUCAPE, the longevity of the severe threat with this bowing segment is uncertain. However, a threat for severe gusts and isolated hail through at least mid morning. If this storm cluster and bowing segment can keep pace with returning deeper moisture above the surface, then it could persist later into the morning with a continued severe threat. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34729700 35119641 35559522 34659475 34309476 33989611 33909661 33989655 34279676 34729700 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0375 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... FOR NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...north Texas and southeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106... Valid 031138Z - 031345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...Elevated cells will continue to pose a large hail risk this morning across portions of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...A couple of strong, elevated supercells across western north TX will continue to shift east through the morning. This activity is occurring in a warm advection regime atop a stalled surface boundary draped across north/north-central Texas eastward to the AR/LA border. Steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to modest elevated instability, with MUCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. Additional cells may develop within this regime through the morning hours and large hail potential may persist beyond the 13z expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106. Some severe potential also could persist downstream of the current watch, though north and east extent is somewhat uncertain. A new watch, or a local watch extension will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33859877 34489576 34399464 33889441 32979495 32419639 32189815 32349875 32749908 33369911 33859877 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW TPL TO 40 SSW ABI TO 65 NNW ABI. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143- 147-181-193-207-217-221-231-237-251-253-257-337-349-363-367-397- 399-417-425-429-439-441-447-497-503-031240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON JONES KAUFMAN MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW TPL TO 40 SSW ABI TO 65 NNW ABI. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143- 147-181-193-207-217-221-231-237-251-253-257-337-349-363-367-397- 399-417-425-429-439-441-447-497-503-031240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON JONES KAUFMAN MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0374 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS INTO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern MS into Middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 030955Z - 031130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado risk may persist across portions of northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee another few hours. A local watch extension may be needed. DISCUSSION...Occasionally intense cells exhibiting moderate rotation continue along the stalled surface boundary from northern MS into Middle TN early this morning. A supercell southwest of the Nashville area has recently shown increasing rotation over the past 20 minutes. Wind profile data from GWX and HUN continue to show supercell wind profiles across the warm sector, while a narrow corridor of modest MLCAPE extends northeast across the MCD area. Convection may continue to be sustained in the warm advection regime along the surface boundary and within a favorably sheared environment such that tornado/severe potential could persist a few more hours. With Tornado Watch 104 set to expire at 11z, a local watch extension may be needed. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 35688586 35098720 34968766 34558853 34568882 34638910 34898920 35338855 36428625 36568555 36478504 36208510 35688586 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 106 SEVERE TSTM TX 030625Z - 031300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into North-Central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning from 125 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Elevated supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this morning as they move quickly northeastward. Some of the hail could reach up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of San Angelo TX to 50 miles east northeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...WW 104...WW 105... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0373 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA INTO WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of western PA into WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105... Valid 030854Z - 031030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential will wane with time and eastward extent. Locally strong gusts may continue in the short term from western Pennsylvania into central West Virginia. DISCUSSION...A line of convection from western PA into western WV will continue to progress east over the next few hours. Much of this activity is outpacing weak instability and moving toward strong inhibition. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear remains over the region, which may maintain some organized linear convection in the short term. The main risk across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105 will be locally strong gusts. A downstream watch is not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL... LAT...LON 41387881 40527874 38728024 37738198 37968255 38278277 38778254 39808111 41337949 41387881 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-035-049-059-077-081-083-085-093-095-097-113-121-133- 139-143-147-151-181-193-207-217-221-231-235-237-251-253-257-307- 327-333-337-349-353-363-367-397-399-411-413-417-425-429-431-439- 441-447-451-497-503-031040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COKE COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN FISHER GRAYSON HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HUNT IRION JACK JOHNSON JONES KAUFMAN MCCULLOCH MENARD MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WISE YOUNG Read more