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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHERN MS...FAR NORTHWEST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Southeast OK...northeast TX...northern LA...central/southern AR...western/middle TN...northern MS...far northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031622Z - 031815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe storm threat will increase into this afternoon. One or more watches will likely be needed, though timing is somewhat uncertain. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing this morning from eastern OK into AR and western TN. These storms are currently elevated to the north of an outflow-reinforced front draped from the ArkLaTex into southern AR and northern MS. A rather strong southerly low-level jet (as noted on regional VWPs) is expected to persist into the afternoon, which will help to maintain elevated convection north of the front. This regenerative convection will likely tend to limit northward advance of the front through the day. However, moderate to strong MUCAPE and favorable deep-layer shear will support development of elevated supercells and clusters north of the front, with an attendant threat of large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts. Along/south of the front, a favorable tornado environment is already in place, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, strong deep-layer shear, and enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2. This environment will remain in place into this afternoon. Decreasing MLCINH with time will support potential for surface-based storm development near and south of the front, though the coverage and residence time of warm-sector supercells remains uncertain. Any sustained surface-based supercell within this environment would pose a significant tornado (EF2+) threat, in addition to very large hail and severe wind potential. While timing remains somewhat uncertain, one or more watches will likely be needed this afternoon across the region, with a Tornado Watch likely for areas near/south of the front. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 34718775 33618958 32019427 31579503 31549574 31739596 31919600 32979564 33789503 34499354 35339112 36108940 36478757 36588665 36148628 35558661 34958739 34718775 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0107 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0107 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 3 17:37:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more