Aggregator

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-057-069-073-079-081- 091-095-099-103-139-032040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC015-017-027-111-119-032040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE UNION WEBSTER MSC011-133-151-032040- Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-023-029-045-051-053-059-061-063-067-071-083-085-097-101- 105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-137-141-145-147-149- 032040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JOHNSON LOGAN LONOKE MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL OKC089-032040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379, 0380. ..DEAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LMK...JKL...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-077-107-032040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN LEE PHILLIPS KYC001-003-009-013-025-045-051-053-057-095-109-119-121-125-129- 131-133-137-147-169-171-189-193-199-203-207-213-231-235- 032040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY METCALFE MONROE OWSLEY PERRY PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SIMPSON Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more