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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0228 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Lake Okeechobee releases were reduced on May 3 due to drought conditions. With less freshwater flowing down the Caloosahatchee River, the estuary was becoming saltier, and saltwater was moving upriver. The higher salinity can damage tape grass, disrupt fish nurseries, and hurt oysters during the spawning season. WFTX (Cape Coral, Fla.), May 2, 2025

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-011-015-025-041-052240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES DE BACA EDDY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC003-103-135-165-301-317-329-461-475-495-501-052240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-039-041-051-089-157-167-185-201-321-339-473-477-481- 052240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON GMZ335-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-089-099-103-111-117- 119-121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-052240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX LICKING MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-007-019-059-073-085-121-125-052240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEAVER BUTLER GREENE LAWRENCE MERCER VENANGO WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-061-085-086-093-095-097-099-111-117-127-052240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W OAJ TO 25 SSW AVC TO 20 NNE AVC TO 35 ESE LYH. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-041-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-103-107-117-127-131- 133-143-147-185-187-191-195-052240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PERQUIMANS PITT WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093- 095-097-101-103-109-115-119-127-133-135-145-147-149-159-175-181- 183-193-199-570-595-620-650-670-700-730-735-760-800-830- 052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE Read more

MD 0697 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... FOR EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern NC and southeast VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223... Valid 051910Z - 052115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223 continues. SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat should persist across eastern North Carolina and advance/shift north-northeast across southeast Virginia through early evening. DISCUSSION...Numerous cells have been prevalent, especially across central into eastern NC this afternoon. Here, a south-southwesterly deep-layer wind profile, per area VWPs, along with transient supercell structures has resulted in convection largely progressing northeastward thus far. But activity should pivot to a greater northerly component given the evolution of the upstream vort max/attendant mid-level jetlet. Air mass appears to be modestly unstable downstream across southeast VA with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This should help sustain a severe hail/damaging wind threat through early evening. Despite numerous cells and hail reports, peak severe magnitude has only reached 1 inch thus far. ..Grams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35777850 36717804 37187784 37797747 37877710 37787662 37427648 36687664 35597701 35077731 34887758 34717781 34747818 35047835 35777850 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0698 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051916Z - 052045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of hail may occur with the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular high-based convection has developed along a cold front, atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8-9.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, over the SD/WY border. As the boundary layer further destabilizes, additional pulse-cellular and multicell storms should form along the cold front through the afternoon. Given a dry boundary layer, evaporative cooling via the stronger storm cores will promote some potential for severe gusts. With mid-level lapse rates also approaching 8 C/km amid marginal vertical wind shear, an instance of severe hail also cannot be ruled out. With the severe threat likely remaining isolated, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43050607 44340454 45140387 46640203 46930114 46480038 43660143 43610153 43110352 42790535 43050607 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0227 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of far southeast New Mexico into far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051858Z - 052030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across southeast NM into far western TX. Supercells should organize over the next few hours, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk. The tornado risk will initially be low, but should increase by evening. A Tornado Watch may be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently occurred over far southeastern NM along a confluence band ahead of a surface trough, with CU gradually becoming more agitated farther south into the Trans-Pecos region of southwestern TX. Ahead of the developing/intensifying storms, continued diurnal heating beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates is supporting 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. With stronger 500 mb flow rotating around a parent upper low and overspreading the southern High Plains, effective bulk shear continues to increase (currently over 45 kts per 18Z mesoanalysis). As such, storms that mature and become sustained should become supercellular, with an initial severe hail/wind risk. The regional VADs and 18Z mesoanalysis currently depict weak to modest low-level shear, which should temper the tornado threat to a degree. However, a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary, identified via visible satellite, resides from Chaves County, NM to Howard County, TX. While the tornado threat will increase later this evening with the intensification of the low-level jet, localized earlier tornado potential may exist with a supercell that can anchor to this boundary. Given the increasing severe threat, a Tornado Watch may be needed in the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31120309 31830426 32290470 32980517 33680518 33950510 34200489 34280438 33920344 33090228 32400183 31730162 31050197 31120309 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-089-157-185-201-339-473-477-481-052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO FORT BEND GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-061-085-086-093-095-097-099-111-117-127-052140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-052140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W OAJ TO 25 SSW AVC TO 20 NNE AVC TO 35 ESE LYH. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-041-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-103-107-117-127-131- 133-143-147-185-187-191-195-052140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PERQUIMANS PITT WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093- 095-097-101-103-109-115-119-127-133-135-145-147-149-159-175-181- 183-193-199-570-595-620-650-670-700-730-735-760-800-830- 052140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE Read more

MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051816Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and localized damaging winds are possible into late afternoon across northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. This region may remain in a less favorable setup relative to areas south and west, lowering confidence for a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Scattered, low-topped convection has been persistent during early afternoon from northern VA into western PA. Generalized northwestward movement has stymied destabilization deeper into PA, with a gradual uptick in intensity over northern VA to western MD. Deep-layer speed shear will remain favorable (per Sterling VWP data) for further intensification, but this may be confined to the southeast extent of sustained storms and yield predominately marginal severe hail/wind. Meanwhile, more widespread deep convection is occurring across central to eastern NC. Latest trends with this activity suggest it may largely shift across southeast VA into late afternoon. Overall, the potential for a sustained hail/wind threat through peak heating appears nebulous. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39747685 38577681 38327750 38267842 38687916 39217967 39627974 40057919 40287847 40167757 39747685 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more