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WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-011-015-025-041-060040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES DE BACA EDDY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC003-103-135-165-301-317-329-461-475-495-501-060040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 227 TORNADO NM TX 052025Z - 060200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail (potentially up to baseball size/2.75 inches in diameter) as they move slowly east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts up to 65-75 mph may also occur on a more isolated basis. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Roswell NM to 20 miles east southeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 223...WW 224...WW 225...WW 226... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-039-041-051-089-157-167-185-201-321-339-473-477-481- 060040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON GMZ335-060040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 225 SEVERE TSTM TX 051855Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense supercell will likely pose a threat for large to very large hail up to 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter as it tracks east-southeastward towards the Houston metro area over the next few hours. Additional robust thunderstorms may also develop through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of College Station TX to 40 miles west southwest of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 223...WW 224... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0701 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052129Z - 052330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving north out of southeast Virginia will migrate into a buoyant air mass in place across the DelMarVa region. Re-intensification is expected and may result in an uptick in the severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is being considered to address this potential. DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete thunderstorms and weakly organized linear segments continues to migrate north out of southeast VA. While a few stronger cores persist, much of the convection currently appears weak/disorganized based on GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertical ice/echo top data. However, these storms are moving into an environment characterized by better buoyancy (MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg) that is in place across the DelMarVa region. Consequently, some uptick in intensity is anticipated within the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer wind shear sampled by regional VWPs is fairly modest - around 20-25 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this should be sufficient for a few organized cells and linear segments capable of producing damaging winds and 1.0 to 1.5 inch hail. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 37687760 38617858 39057882 39307881 39677865 39997827 40077798 40057760 39837722 39257636 38867603 38407592 38117592 37777606 37557624 37357656 37357685 37467726 37687760 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-011-015-025-041-052340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES DE BACA EDDY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC003-103-135-165-301-317-329-461-475-495-501-052340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FKL TO 25 S ZZV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-019-029-031-059-075-083-099-103-117-119-133-139-151-153- 155-157-169-052340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HOLMES KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MORROW MUSKINGUM PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-039-041-051-089-157-167-185-201-321-339-473-477-481- 052340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON GMZ335-052340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PBI TO 45 ESE APF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703 ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-061-085-093-095-097-099-111-117-127-052340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-650-052340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W OAJ TO 5 SW RWI TO 25 SSW RIC TO 35 E CHO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702 ..THORNTON..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-041-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-103-107-117-131-133- 143-147-187-195-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JONES LENOIR MARTIN NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PERQUIMANS PITT WASHINGTON WILSON VAC033-036-041-057-073-081-085-087-093-095-097-101-103-115-119- 127-133-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-570-595-620-650-670-700-730- 735-760-800-830-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD Read more

MD 0700 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225... Valid 052048Z - 052215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225. Large hail remains the main concern, but a tornado could still occur if a supercell can become surface based. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have developed across southeast Texas, and have been progressing eastward on the immediate cool side of a baroclinic zone. These supercells are likely still elevated, and given adequate buoyancy above 700 mb (per RAP forecast soundings), severe hail could still occur given elongated mid to upper-level hodographs and corresponding 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Closer to the Gulf Coast, multiple thunderstorms continue to intensify within a WAA regime. These storms are associated with a relatively more unstable, surface-based airmass. Regional VADs on the warm side of the baroclinic boundary show low-level hodographs with modest size and curvature, with around 300 m2/s2 SRH present (per 19Z mesoanalysis). It is unclear if these storms can organize and intensify into mature surface-based supercells before reaching the cool side of the baroclinic boundary. If they do though, a tornado remains possible. ..Squitieri.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28649649 29699684 30299679 30719650 30779603 30489538 29969505 29509497 29139500 28909533 28719573 28599604 28649649 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0699 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224... FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...east-central and southeast FL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224... Valid 052011Z - 052215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for isolated large hail and localized severe gusts should persist through early to mid evening across southeast and east-central Florida. DISCUSSION...Several cells across southeast FL have somewhat weakened after earlier producing large hail reported up to ping-pong ball size. This activity may still produce marginal hail/wind as storms oscillate in the near-term. Large-scale convective outflow has surged south and west, potentially serving as a focus for storm development in the interior peninsula into early evening. Farther north, the Melbourne VWP has consistently sampled around 40-45 kt 0-6 km shear. Although thunderstorm development has been subdued to an extent, additional storms may yet form along the Atlantic sea breeze to the quasi-stationary front. Ample buoyancy will favor isolated large hail and localized severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28838091 27758041 26858008 26008011 25618026 25468071 25458099 26458127 26738137 27488111 27968108 28328119 28388156 28518187 28828141 28838091 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more