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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0703 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224... FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...the east-central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224... Valid 052233Z - 060030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development within a buoyancy maximum will likely result in a lingering severe hail and wind threat for the next 1-2 hours across the east-central Florida Peninsula. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development along a convectively reinforced sea-breeze boundary has resulted in overturning of a buoyant air mass for much of the northern and southern east coast of FL. However, a relative minimum in convection across the central part of the east coast (roughly between Lake Okeechobee to Orlando, FL and eastward) has left a reservoir of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Over the past 15-30 minutes, robust convection has developed along the sea-breeze boundary and is migrating into this CAPE maximum. 0-6 km BWD values behind the sea-breeze remain near 40 knots per the KMLB VWP, which will support supercells with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail, possibly up to the size of golf balls. This activity should persist for the next 1-2 hours before destructive storm interactions, convective overturning, and the onset of nocturnal cooling lead to a gradual reduction in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26378060 26508099 26698128 26928145 27248147 27828148 28048138 28208116 28278099 28228085 28068069 27618043 27288023 27018015 26788011 26558021 26418032 26408045 26378060 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0704 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225... FOR PARTS OF SERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225... Valid 052234Z - 060030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development will continue for several more hours, including few cells which may become capable of producing severe hail, before activity weakens later this evening. It is unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A broad area of convection, rooted within forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, continues to gradually overspread much of eastern/southeastern Texas, with scattered embedded thunderstorm activity. This includes more recent vigorous development northwest of Victoria through mid/upper Texas coastal areas, in closer proximity to a stalled surface frontal zone extending inland of coastal areas, through the Texas Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. The northward edge of the stronger convection appears focused along the leading edge of southward propagating gravity waves, which may reach the Greater Houston and College Station vicinities by 00-01z. Until then, thermodynamic profiles characterized by seasonably moist air, surmounted by modestly steep lapse rates, above the frontal inversion, may remain supportive of convection capable of producing severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer. ..Kerr.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 30879768 30889612 30449458 29689377 29209346 28379536 28519646 29589766 30119827 30719788 30879768 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0705 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226... FOR NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0556 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Northern Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226... Valid 052256Z - 060030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226 continues. SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms migrating into northwestern parts of WW 226 may produce strong to severe winds and isolated hail, though it is not clear how long or far downstream this threat will persist. DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity data from KCLE shows an organized, but compact, convective band developing across central/north-central OH. Wind velocities between 1-1.2 km above radar level were recently sampled at 35-45 knots, which suggests winds capable of producing damaging winds are likely embedded within the band. Environmentally, this line is on the periphery of any appreciable buoyancy and continues to migrate away from the better low-level moisture. However, a 35 knot 0-3 km wind shear vector sampled by the nearby KCLE VWP is nearly orthogonal to the line, and strong ascent associated with a vorticity maximum/shortwave trough aloft will continue to provide ascent and some degree of mid-level cooling/destabilization in the vicinity of the line. Consequently, this line may pose a damaging/severe wind and isolated hail threat into north-central OH. Eventually, diminishing buoyancy with northwest extent will lead to the demise of the band so downstream watch issuance is not expected (though local watch expansions have been made), but exactly when this occurs remains somewhat unclear. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40348259 40238294 40458314 40788350 41088358 41288343 41418315 41488280 41408242 41288212 41088177 40688154 40478152 40328167 40398226 40348259 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HOU TO 45 ESE AUS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06/01Z. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-167-185-201-339-473-477-060100- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON GMZ335-060100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HOU TO 45 ESE AUS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06/01Z. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-167-185-201-339-473-477-060100- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON GMZ335-060100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HOU TO 45 ESE AUS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06/01Z. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-167-185-201-339-473-477-060100- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON GMZ335-060100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HOU TO 45 ESE AUS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06/01Z. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-167-185-201-339-473-477-060100- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON GMZ335-060100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HOU TO 45 ESE AUS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06/01Z. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-167-185-201-339-473-477-060100- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON GMZ335-060100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HOU TO 45 ESE AUS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06/01Z. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-041-051-167-185-201-339-473-477-060100- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS MONTGOMERY WALLER WASHINGTON GMZ335-060100- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ335 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 225 SEVERE TSTM TX 051855Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense supercell will likely pose a threat for large to very large hail up to 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter as it tracks east-southeastward towards the Houston metro area over the next few hours. Additional robust thunderstorms may also develop through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of College Station TX to 40 miles west southwest of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 223...WW 224... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW CNM TO 55 S CVS. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-103-135-165-301-317-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-501- 060140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW CNM TO 55 S CVS. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-103-135-165-301-317-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-501- 060140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more