Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and hail. Additional development across portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more information. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Southern Plains... Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If the convection across south-central TX can persist through the afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been expanded eastward some to account for this potential. Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread the warm sector mainly this evening. Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent. The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina... A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA. Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening. Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions. ...Florida Peninsula... Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL Peninsula with this update. ...Western Dakotas... Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with pulse-type and loosely organized clusters. Read more