Mandatory water restrictions in Westfield, Massachusetts

3 months 3 weeks ago
Mandatory water restrictions went into effect on May 5 in Westfield and prohibited non-essential outdoor water use. The restrictions, which were approved by the city’s Water Commission, were enacted because the state’s Department of Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Rebecca Tepper declared the Connecticut River Valley region in a level 1 mild drought. MassLive (Springfield, Mass.), May 6, 2025

SPC MD 714

3 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0714 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...north-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230... Valid 061417Z - 061515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 continues. SUMMARY...A downstream/replacement severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to move east across north Texas. This line appears mostly elevated with occasional wind signatures, but no substantial measured wind gusts. Ahead of this line, elevated storms have started to develop into supercells. Expect this elevated activity to increase through the morning as a 40-45 knot low-level jet intensifies across northeast Texas with ~1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Some supercell structures will be possible given the strong wind profile. Large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. A replacement severe thunderstorm watch will be needed by 15Z across north-central Texas with additional areas east of watch 230 also needed. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 31429837 32309818 32869814 33309789 33479698 33289584 32729544 31859548 31539597 31499709 31499781 31429837 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Northeast Nebraska farmer reluctantly beginning to irrigate crop to promote emergence

3 months 3 weeks ago
An Antelope County farmer started pivot irrigation to help the crop emerge because the topsoil was very dry. In April, the area received just 0.35 inches of rain. Because irrigation is so expensive, the farmer did not want to start the engines. The crop will be more costly to grow, not to mention labor intensive. Pastures have not yet turned green, making her worry that she may not have enough grass to feed the cattle that they bought. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 6, 2025

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 230 SEVERE TSTM TX 060825Z - 061500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and North-Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning from 325 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are expected to expand east-northeastward across parts of the Low Rolling Plains toward North-central/central Texas. Large hail will be the primary hazard overnight, with locally damaging winds also possible. Tornado potential should increase into central Texas/I-35 vicinity later this morning. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north northwest of San Angelo TX to 55 miles north of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 231 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123-145-149-157- 171-177-185-187-201-209-225-259-281-285-287-289-299-309-313-331- 339-395-407-453-455-471-473-477-481-491-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL CORYELL DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE LEON LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 231 Status Reports

3 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123-145-149-157- 171-177-185-187-201-209-225-259-281-285-287-289-299-309-313-331- 339-395-407-453-455-471-473-477-481-491-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL CORYELL DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE LEON LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC MD 713

3 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0713 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north-central TX and far south-central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230... Valid 061255Z - 061430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat could spread eastward with time this morning. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster with an embedded supercell is approaching north-central TX this morning, with other convection increasing in advance of this cluster within a low-level warm-advection regime. The 12Z FWD sounding depicted moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and some short-term threat for hail and isolated strong to severe gusts may spread eastward this morning, both with the ongoing cluster and any intensifying downstream cells. Depending on short-term trends, local extension of WW 230 and/or new watch issuance is possible later this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33129906 34039832 34019722 33439699 33049679 32449677 32069711 31949816 31899889 32019891 32249892 33129906 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 712

3 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0712 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...South-central into east-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230... Valid 061111Z - 061415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 continues. SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat is expected with time this morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely later this morning, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Some increase in convection has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, in close proximity to a surface warm front that is expected to lift northward through the morning across parts of south-central into east-central TX. Favorable deep-layer shear and low-level SRH (as noted on the KEWX VWP) will result in supercell potential through the morning, especially as the warm front moves northward and rich low-level moisture continues to support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Timing of additional supercell development and maturation within the warm-advection regime remains somewhat uncertain, as does the potential influence of an ongoing eastward-moving storm cluster near San Angelo. However, as the threat for surface-based supercells increases, a corresponding increase in the tornado threat is expected with time this morning, in addition to potential for large hail and locally damaging winds. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed later this morning, though timing is uncertain. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30109969 30469938 31789706 31789594 31279547 30499537 30219581 29779648 29509720 29339823 29329926 30109969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC May 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC May 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC May 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more