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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0715 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 231... FOR CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Central to East-Central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 231... Valid 061550Z - 061715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 231 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase late this morning into the early afternoon across parts of central and east-central Texas. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection has resulted in increasing instability along the warm front in central/east-central Texas with low 70s dewpoints now present across this region. Cloud cover has limited heating thus far, but some breaks in the clouds have become apparent and should allow for heating into the early afternoon. A mature supercell already exists along this frontal zone in Bell County, Texas. Expect this cell to continue east along the front with an increasing tornado threat through the afternoon. Additional development has already started to the southwest with some hints of additional development farther east along the front. By later this afternoon, expect several supercells along and south of the warm front with a primary threat for large hail and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). The primary limiting factor based on 12Z forecast soundings was moist/neutral lapse rates in the low levels. However, at least some heating is already apparent south of the front which could result in low 80s temperatures and more favorable low-level lapse rates. Therefore, concern is increasing for an evolving tornado threat across east-central Texas. ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30969806 31369711 31399570 31279530 30919512 30159504 29589507 29479653 29549797 29559828 29659858 29849859 30969806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0233 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0233 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0233 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The communities of Hays and Russell made written requests on March 31 and April 2, respectively, to the Kansas Water Office for a water release from Cedar Bluffs Reservoir as water levels dropped in each towns’ wellfields along the Smoky Hill River. The gates at Cedar Bluffs Reservoir were opened by the Kansas Water Office to release water from May 5 through about May 11. The gates at the reservoir have not been opened since 2013. Hays gets about half of its water from wells along the Smoky River, while Russell has a mix of wells and surface water. KRSL (Russell, Kan.), April 29, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more