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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more