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WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW FST TO 40 SE MAF TO 20 ENE MAF TO 40 N MAF TO 40 SW LBB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-105-137-173-235-265-267-271-371-383-385-413-431-435-443- 451-463-465-060940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA CROCKETT EDWARDS GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY PECOS REAGAN REAL SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 229 TORNADO NM TX 060155Z - 060900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast New Mexico West into Southwest and South-Central Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 855 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue across the Permian Basin this evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are forecast farther southeast into the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau regions. It is here that scattered supercells are forecast to evolve by late evening and persist into the overnight. Moist low levels with strengthening flow fields will support supercells potentially capable of a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 50 miles south southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 227...WW 228... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0230 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MRF TO 40 ENE FST TO 15 NNW MAF TO 50 SW LBB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-019-103-105-135-137-165-173-235-265-267-271-317-329-371- 383-385-413-431-435-443-451-461-463-465-060840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BANDERA CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN REAL SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0709 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 229... FOR PARTS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT SERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM Concerning...Tornado Watch 229... Valid 060430Z - 060630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity. A few cells may undergo considerable further intensification accompanied by increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the southwest of Midland/Odessa. This is contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb). This environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270 30760382 31330385 31890394 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060740- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-019-103-105-135-137-165-173-235-265-267-271-301-317-329- 371-383-385-389-413-431-435-443-451-461-463-465-475-495- 060740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BANDERA CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN REAL REEVES SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE Read more