Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SJT TO 30 S ABI TO 5 NW ABI TO 65 NNW ABI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-031-049-053-059-083-093-095-099-133-137-143-171-193- 209-253-259-265-267-281-299-307-319-325-327-333-363-385-411-413- 417-429-435-453-491-061340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS JONES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MEDINA MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SJT TO 30 S ABI TO 5 NW ABI TO 65 NNW ABI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-027-031-049-053-059-083-093-095-099-133-137-143-171-193- 209-253-259-265-267-281-299-307-319-325-327-333-363-385-411-413- 417-429-435-453-491-061340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BELL BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS JONES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MEDINA MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0711 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... FOR TX CONCHO VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...TX Concho Valley into Northwest TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230... Valid 061006Z - 061130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue through dawn, with potential for hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat also remains near the warm front. DISCUSSION...Several strong to potentially severe storms are moving east-northeast across the Concho Valley region of TX into the Big Country. The bulk of the ongoing convection is elevated to the north of a warm front that is gradually moving northward across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts with any elevated supercells. The line segment that earlier organized along a cold front and is now moving through San Angelo could pose a somewhat greater threat for strong to severe gusts, in addition to hail with embedded supercells. Farther southwest, increasing convection has been noted along the trailing cold front/outflow into Crockett County, TX. Convection in this area is in closer proximity to the warm front and rich surface moisture. Low-level hodographs remain sufficiently large to support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercell that moves within the vicinity of the warm front early this morning. ..Dean.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30740160 31650092 32619985 32999917 32989797 31629805 30979850 30329929 30310159 30740160 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-031-049-053-059-081-083-093-095-099-133-143-151-171-193- 209-235-253-281-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-399-411-417-429-431- 441-451-453-491-061040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH FISHER GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS IRION JONES LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR TOM GREEN TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more