Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more