Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday. ...Synopsis... Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies, allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Plains... Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Northern Cascades... West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage. Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to steep low-level lapse rates. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains largely on-track, with no changes needed to the ongoing outlook. While isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across portions of northeast Oregon, far southeast Washington, and adjacent portions of Idaho, low confidence in lightning potential coupled with uncertainty regarding fuels status, especially given recent rainfall over the past 24-48 hours, precludes introducing an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Nevertheless, a few new ignitions may be possible where fuels remain at least locally receptive - mainly across portions of northeast Oregon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more