Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more