Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains today, but any severe potential should remain low. ...DISCUSSION... Flow at mid-levels will remain northwesterly over the top of a moist airmass today in the southern and central Plains. A weak upslope flow regime will be in place to the east of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this airmass, scattered thunderstorms will develop. Isolated storms may form near the surface trough and instability axis, with increased convective coverage further to the east in the less unstable air. A few strong storms will be possible in areas where convection is co-located with maximized instability. However, lapse rates will be weak suggesting that the severe potential will remain low in the southern and central Plains today. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on today. Ridging will continue to build across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light with no thunderstorm activity expected. A few spotty Elevated conditions will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Ranges where breezy northerly winds will overlap dry fuels. However, this threat appear to be too brief and localized to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more