Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the Southeast into the Hudson Valley. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern features broadly cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS, except for a narrow zone of ridging now located from the Four Corners region to central Canada. An upstream trough will move across the northern High Plains and central/ southern Rockies. Its field of UVV/cooling aloft will support isolated thunder potential in the four Corners region, in concert with marginal low/middle-level moisture. Downstream, a complex synoptic trough extends from northern ON across the lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains States. One previously intense shortwave trough is located over portions of the Lake Michigan region, and will continue to weaken as it ejects northeastward today. Another perturbation is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern KS, western OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature will pivot eastward across the Mid-South by 00Z, then weaken and eject to the inland Mid-Atlantic by 12Z tomorrow. Strong southwest flow aloft (e.g., a 120-140-kt 250-mb jet, and 90-105 kt at 500 mb) will extend from the Gulf Coast States to the Carolinas today, ahead of the second shortwave trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a deep (978 mb), occluded surface low near HTL, which will eject northeastward across ON and northern QC through the period. The associated surface cold front was drawn across western OH, eastern parts of KY/TN, northern AL, and extreme southeastern LA. This front should sweep eastward/ southeastward to central portions of NY/PA/VA by 00Z, extending southwestward across the FL Panhandle to the central Gulf. By 12Z, the front should extend from portions of ME, near Cape Cod, to near the NC Outer Banks, and across northern FL. ...Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the Southeast into the Hudson Valley. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern features broadly cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS, except for a narrow zone of ridging now located from the Four Corners region to central Canada. An upstream trough will move across the northern High Plains and central/ southern Rockies. Its field of UVV/cooling aloft will support isolated thunder potential in the four Corners region, in concert with marginal low/middle-level moisture. Downstream, a complex synoptic trough extends from northern ON across the lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains States. One previously intense shortwave trough is located over portions of the Lake Michigan region, and will continue to weaken as it ejects northeastward today. Another perturbation is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern KS, western OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature will pivot eastward across the Mid-South by 00Z, then weaken and eject to the inland Mid-Atlantic by 12Z tomorrow. Strong southwest flow aloft (e.g., a 120-140-kt 250-mb jet, and 90-105 kt at 500 mb) will extend from the Gulf Coast States to the Carolinas today, ahead of the second shortwave trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a deep (978 mb), occluded surface low near HTL, which will eject northeastward across ON and northern QC through the period. The associated surface cold front was drawn across western OH, eastern parts of KY/TN, northern AL, and extreme southeastern LA. This front should sweep eastward/ southeastward to central portions of NY/PA/VA by 00Z, extending southwestward across the FL Panhandle to the central Gulf. By 12Z, the front should extend from portions of ME, near Cape Cod, to near the NC Outer Banks, and across northern FL. ...Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022 Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PFN TO 15 E DHN TO 40 NNE DHN TO 10 SW AUO TO 20 NNW LGC TO 30 ESE RMG. ..BROYLES..03/31/22 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC067-069-081-113-311040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY HOUSTON LEE RUSSELL FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-133-311040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-037-053-061-077-087-095-099-131-145-149-197-199-201-205- 215-239-243-253-259-263-273-285-307-311040- GA Read more

WW 0075 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 75 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW LFK TO 5 E GGG TO 30 SW TXK TO 20 ESE DEQ TO 30 WNW HOT TO 20 SW RUE TO 35 NNW RUE TO 10 SSE HRO TO 10 SSW TBN. ..WENDT..03/30/22 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 75 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-041-043-045-049-051- 053-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-085-089-091-095-097- 099-103-105-109-115-117-119-121-125-129-135-137-139-141-145-147- 301540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LINCOLN LONOKE MARION MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SEARCY SHARP STONE UNION VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF Read more

WW 75 TORNADO AR LA MO OK TX 301025Z - 301800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 75 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas Northern Louisiana Southern Missouri Extreme southeastern Oklahoma Northeast and extreme east Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 525 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms is expected to reorient more north-south and gradually intensify through the morning and into midday, as it crosses the watch area. The southern end of the activity also may expand and become severe as it crosses from Texas into Louisiana and shifts eastward. Strengthening deep-layer wind fields and increasing moisture will favor a threat for tornadoes and severe gusts from this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Shreveport LA to 25 miles northwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 74... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23045. ...Edwards Read more

MD 0352 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0903 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern and east central Missouri and southern into northeastern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301403Z - 301600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region through 11 AM to Noon, accompanied by at least some risk for localized, potentially damaging wind gusts. It appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous mid-level short wave trough gradually pivoting in negatively tilted fashion across the southern Great Plains, models suggest that strong pre-cold frontal southerly low-level flow will continue to develop north-northeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley, toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity through 16-17Z. This includes speeds strengthening to 50-60+ kt around 850 mb . One area of organized convective development coinciding with this low-level jet is currently spreading through the lower Missouri Valley. This appears focused near a remnant mesoscale convective vortex and may persist in some fashion into midday, northeastward toward the Chicago area. Although the boundary-layer is still generally cool and stable across much of central through northern Illinois, models do suggest that it will destabilize with low-level thermal and moisture advection in advance of the convection. Although extensive cloud cover will limit insolation, and lapse rates will only become very weakly unstable with minimal CAPE, downward mixing of the strong environment wind fields may contribute to sporadic severe wind gusts. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38929080 41208868 40768743 38868859 38158907 37928996 38239094 38929080 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN/EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, and over portions of the central Gulf Coast states later today into tonight. The greatest concerns are tornadoes (some strong, EF2+) and severe gusts (some to hurricane force). ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, highly amplified pattern will persist, featuring a complex synoptic-scale trough shifting eastward over the central CONUS. A strong shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the northern/central High Plains through today, then pivot more eastward over KS/OK by 12Z tomorrow. As that occurs, a strong/basal shortwave trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery from central KS to the TX Big Bend region -- will pivot eastward to northeastward, becoming neutrally then negatively tilted today. The lead shortwave trough will eject northeastward and lose amplitude tonight, leaving behind a field of strong southwest flow through the mid/upper troposphere in the Ohio Valley and much of the South, ahead of the main synoptic trough. At the surface, the 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central IA. A warm front -- drawn across northern MO, southern IL, and western KY, will move northward across much of southern/central portions of IL/IN through the day. An arctic cold front was drawn from the low across southeastern KS, central OK, and northwest TX, to southeastern NM. A Pacific cold front largely has overtaken the dryline, and was drawn from western parts of north-central TX to near HDO, then southwestward into central Coahuila. The arctic front will overtake the Pacific front from north to south through the period. By 00Z, the low should reach northern IL or southern WI, with primary cold front roughly southward over IL and extreme western KY, western TN, northern MS, central LA, and near mid/upper coastal areas of TX. By 12Z, the low should occlude over western to northern Lower MI, with the cold front over parts of WV, northeastern TN, northern /western GA, the FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. The bulk of convection and severe potential will remain ahead of the cold front. ...Gulf Coast to lower Ohio/mid Mississippi Valleys... A band of convection, with embedded strong/locally severe thunderstorms, is ongoing from the west-central Ozarks to northeast TX. See SPC tornado watch 75 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term guidance on associated severe potential. As the basal shortwave trough pivots out today, strong height falls and rapidly increasing low/middle-level wind fields will spread farther over the warm sector adjacent to the ongoing, eastward- shifting convective band. In keeping with that mass response and the geometry of the height/vorticity fields, the convective band should pivot toward a more meridional alignment as well. Strengthening of both deep ascent and low-level moisture/theta-e will reduce MLCINH observed in this morning's 06Z and 12Z warm-sector soundings, contributing to increasing intensity and coverage of thunderstorms in the main band, as well as some potential for convection to develop to its east. How much sustained convection can form ahead of the line will strongly influence the tornado threat, which will be strong with the main line, but which will be especially intense for any sustained supercells that can form to its east. The most-favorable parameter space still appears to be across the "moderate" area, where the greatest wind and tornado probabilities are drawn (including at least 10% significant-severe levels). In a northward-narrowing wedge of favorable warm-sector boundary layer, mid/upper 60s F surface dew points should become common from the Gulf Coast to parts of the Mid-South, decreasing northward to the mid 50s to low 60s south of the warm front, over outlooked parts of IL/IN. Though diurnal heating will be modest over most of the area, a combination of theta-e advection and cooling aloft will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg over parts of LA/MS/AL mainly south of I-20, decreasing to the 100-500 J/kg range near the Ohio Valley. Shear will be strong across the entire region, as 90-110 kt of 700-500-mb layer flow develop ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough over the Mid-South, along with a broad, 60-85-kt LLJ. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 50-70 kt effective-shear magnitudes, along with large, well-curved hodographs fostering 300-600 J/kg effective SRH (locally higher). This will support line-embedded tornadic supercells and LEWP/mesovortex features, as well as bowing segments to locally maximize destructive-wind potential. Any preceding, sustained supercells that do develop would be fast-moving (around 50 kt based on the Bunkers algorithm), with potential for long tornado tracks if storm-scale occlusions are not very rapid. Downward momentum transfer from layers of intense gradient flow in low/middle-levels also my augment the severe-downdraft threat, with bursts of hurricane-force gusts possible. The convective regime should weaken with time and eastern extent this evening and overnight across the Ohio Valley region, but may persist at severe levels through the night across the Gulf Coastal Plain as far east as eastern/southern AL, western GA and the FL Panhandle, where sporadic severe gusts and at least a few tornadoes will remain possible overnight. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/30/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 28 13:28:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 28 13:28:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the western United States. ...Synopsis... A large, complex, mid/upper-level cyclone with multiple/smaller- scale circulations and low-height centers will persist over eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. However, upstream ridging will shift eastward across the Plains States as a major synoptic trough moves through the West. The latter trough is anchored by a cyclone now evident in moisture-channel imagery west of CA, near 127W. By 00Z, the associated 500-mb low should be over near-coastal central CA, roughly between MRY-SBA, with trough northward across the interior Pacific Northwest. By 12Z tomorrow, the cyclone should reach southeastern CA and southern NV, with trough north- northeastward across the northern Rockies and southward over northern Baja. A series of vorticity maxima will orbit the cyclone, within about 300 nm radius of the 500-mb low. Isolated thunderstorms are possible today amidst height falls, across a broad swath of the western CONUS. Large-scale ascent ahead of the synoptic trough and the embedded cyclone will steepen low/ middle-level lapse rates, with at least marginally supportive moisture. ...Southern CA... A few somewhat organized thunderstorms -- with small hail and strong gusts -- may occur within either of two main ascent/convective bands forecast to affect near-coastal southern CA this afternoon and evening: 1. A corridor of convection along/ahead of the low-level cold- frontal zone, and in a regime of prefrontal warm advection. This activity is evident from near an MER-SBP line to the western Channel Islands, and should shift slowly eastward today, progressively affecting points farther southeast on the coastline from SBA-LAX-SAN through the daylight hours. Forecast soundings suggest weak low/ middle level lapse rates will limit both buoyancy and convective depth, with MLCAPE holding under 200 J/kg, and an inversion layer capping most (but not necessarily all) convection short of layers supporting lighting generation. 2. An arc of post-frontal convection with a few more embedded thunderstorms possible, nearer to the cold core of the mid/upper cyclone. Cooling aloft, at a greater pace than near the surface, will steepen lapse rates and support MLCAPE 100-400 J/kg, but with veered/substantially westerly near-surface winds away from local orographic influences, keeping low-level and deep shear weak. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/28/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 25 13:45:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 25 13:45:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mean mid/upper-level troughing over the eastern CONUS will be maintained as a series of shortwaves and small cyclones pass through the associated cyclonic-flow field, south of a synoptic cyclone with multiple centers located over southeastern Canada. A leading shortwave trough --- evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Carolinas and GA to the northeastern Gulf -- will eject northeastward across the NC/VA Tidewater and Delmarva Peninsula around 18Z, while weakening rapidly. A trailing open-wave trough -- now over the Tennessee Valley region -- should pivot across eastern NC by around 00Z, then offshore soon thereafter. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out near the southeastern NC coastline and ahead of this perturbation, in the associated regime of DCVA/cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, potential over land currently appears too isolated for a general-thunder designation. A weaker perturbation -- currently over IA -- will follow closely, moving across SC then offshore between 00-06Z. Finally, a compact cyclone should develop from a strong shortwave trough now over the Upper Midwest. The resultant 500-mb low should reach the CLE vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. Ridging aloft will prevail west of the Rockies. At the surface, most of the central/eastern CONUS will remain under the influence of continental/polar air following yesterday's frontal passage out over Gulf/Atlantic waters. Weak lee troughing should form just east of the Rockies under mid/upper northwesterlies. The air mass in general should remain too dry and/or stable for areas of thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH VALLEY VICINITY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered large hail are possible across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity this afternoon. Otherwise, a couple tornadoes and isolated damaging winds or hail will remain possible across parts of the Midwest and Southeast regions into this evening. ...OH Valley and Midwest... A substantial shortwave impulse over the Ark-La-Miss will move northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. An attendant intense mid-level speed max (at or above 110-kt at 500-mb) will become centered from central KY to the northern MS/AL border area by 21Z. While the primary surface cyclone will drift east-northeast across parts of northern IL, a secondary low should develop within the exit region of the mid-level jet across west-central to northwest OH along the arcing baroclinic zone. Cloud breaks to the west of stratiform rain across the central Appalachians should yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg), as a corridor of mid to upper 50s surface dew points become established within the thermal axis near the OH/WV/KY border area. Most CAMs suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop towards early afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau and spread northeast across the Upper OH Valley. Very strong effective shear in excess of 70 knots should yield a highly elongated hodograph, and foster at least a few discrete splitting supercells. Optimal low-level hodographs may only be present in the early portion of the convective life cycle within in the narrow warm/moist sector, lowering confidence of a greater severe threat. Nevertheless, the presence of the surface warm front suggests a few tornadoes and scattered large hail appear possible. A more limited severe threat is anticipated farther west into IN where less boundary-layer heating and weaker low-level hodographs will be present. However, cooler mid-level temperatures yielding steeper lapse rates should support a primary threat of hail. The overall severe threat region-wide will subside after sunset. ...Southeast... Severe potential across the region appears much more nebulous and sporadic through this evening. Low-level hodographs will remain enlarged within broad 40-50 kt 850-mb southerlies, but the low-level jet axis will shift northeast through the day. The best potential for moderate buoyancy should exist across parts of the South Atlantic Coast ahead of a generally weakening swath of convection over the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. It is plausible that remnants of this activity may intensify with diurnal heating and pose some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon within the warm conveyor region from the GA/SC border area north into southern VA, in the wake of a leading swath of showers. Boundary-layer heating is expected to be limited and mid-level lapse rates weak, suggesting that MLCAPE should only reach around 500 J/kg. This may be enough to support a conditional supercell threat given the favorable low-level SRH. While it is plausible that little to no severe may be realized, will maintain a cat 2/SLGT for an isolated tornado threat. Marginal potential for tornado/wind will probably persist into tonight across eastern portions of the Carolinas and VA. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 23 12:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 23 12:49:02 UTC 2022.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Consistency between global models, regarding their depiction of the synoptic-scale pattern over the U.S., deteriorates rapidly/substantially with time, during the medium-range period. The divergence in solutions manifests initially during Day 5/Sunday -- initially over the West Coast with progression of an eastern Pacific low/trough. The divergence then increases/expands with time, to the point where by the end of day 7, the GFS depicts a mature surface cyclone entering western Ohio and a trailing cold front across the Mid South/central Gulf Coast region, while the ECMWF places the low -- though similarly mature -- over western Oklahoma. Given this unusually large spread in solutions, which is particularly highlighted in the increase evident in standard-deviation fields within GEFS output through time, during the medium-range period, no severe weather assessment is being offered beyond Day 5/Sunday at this time. In the Day 4-5 time frame, the upper pattern will likely remain characterized by maintenance of broad cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S., and upstream ridging over western and central portions of the country in advance of the aforementioned eastern Pacific trough. With surface high pressure prevailing as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of prior cold frontal intrusion(s), severe convective potential east of the Rockies will likely remain muted to non-existent. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 22 12:52:03 UTC 2022.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley today... * LOCATIONS... Much of Mississippi Southern and eastern Louisiana Western Alabama * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A regional severe weather outbreak appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States today, with some threat continuing into tonight. Tornadoes, some of which should be strong, and potentially widespread damaging winds will be the most impactful hazards. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 03/22/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST TO EAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe weather outbreak appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States today, with some threat continuing into tonight. Tornadoes, some of which should be strong, and potentially widespread damaging winds will be the most impactful hazards. ...Lower MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... An elongated QLCS is ongoing from northwest MS to southeast TX. Much of the overnight severe threat has been subdued given the slow movement of the squall line in between two primary shortwave impulses (lead one now in eastern KS and the next one over the Lower Rio Grande Valley). Forcing for ascent downstream of the latter impulse appears to be influencing the far southern extent of the QLCS near the Upper TX Coast. This will support eventual forward acceleration of the QLCS today as a sub-synoptic surface cyclone tracks northeast from near Houston, TX to near Memphis, TN within a nearly meridional deep-layer flow regime. The plume of moderate buoyancy near the Upper TX Coast and much of LA will shift/expand across most of MS into far western AL through this afternoon as the boundary-layer warms within cloud breaks. With at least a 60-70 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, classic sickle-shaped hodographs in a broad portion of the warm/moist sector will conditionally support potential for a regional tornado outbreak. The primary uncertainty is the degree of warm-sector discrete supercell development ahead of the QLCS. The most plausible corridor for this to occur appears to be from near the northern LA/southwest MS border area to the MS/AL border area from midday through the afternoon. It still looks more probable that the bulk of convective activity will ultimately remain tied to the QLCS given the largely meridional flow regime. The impinging of an intensifying mid-level jet should favor bowing segments (especially with northern extent) and embedded supercells. Tornadoes from both supercells and mesovortices are likely, some of which will probably be strong, with the greatest potential this afternoon. Damaging winds may become widespread, with multiple long-lived swaths possible. The overall severe threat should diminish during the evening through a combination of the northern portion of the QLCS outpacing surface-based instability and waning of large-scale ascent near the central Gulf Coast as the shortwave impulse ejects away from the region to the north-northeast. Nevertheless, a still strong low-level jet and presence of rich boundary-layer moisture will foster a persistent but probably spatially diminishing threat tonight across parts of AL and the western FL Panhandle. ...Western to northern MO... Scattered low-topped convection is expected to develop midday into the afternoon in the left-exit region of the intense mid-level jet over the south-central states. Boundary-layer winds are consistently forecast to diminish during this time frame, as the area remains well displaced from the tighter pressure gradient over the OH/TN Valleys. In addition, buoyancy is expected to be meager and mid-level lapse rates modest. While small hail may accompany the most robust updrafts, the overall setup does not appear favorable for an appreciable threat of organized severe storms. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/22/2022 Read more