Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 11 13:49:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 11 13:49:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from parts of northeast Texas to the Ozarks and Mid-South, with the greatest threat expected over parts of far eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma to Mid-South... Broad cyclonic mid/high-level flow will persist over the region today, although there will be a tendency for upper heights to rise regionally, particularly late today through tonight. A cold front will continue to slowly advance southeastward across the Ozarks/Mid-South and toward southeast Oklahoma today, although it is expected to return northward as a warm front tonight in response to lee cyclogenesis across the north-central High Plains. A byproduct of an early overnight MCS near the I-44 corridor, an outflow boundary also continues to settle southward/decay across north-central Arkansas and east-central Oklahoma in the predawn hours. A few stronger storms could occur early today across northern Arkansas northeastward toward the lower Ohio Valley, but a more appreciable severe risk is likely to unfold later this afternoon, farther to the south-southwest. The outflow boundary will likely further stall/decay during the day, but its residual influence/imprint, particularly where it intercepts the front, is a probable focus for at least widely scattered deep convective development by late afternoon across east/southeast Oklahoma into western/northern Arkansas. Upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE may exist by peak heating, particularly across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. Some diurnal weakening of the strong early day southwesterly low-level jet will likely occur today, although mid-level winds will remain strong (40-45 kt 700-500 mb) particularly at a latitude including Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will support supercells where storms do develop later today. Large hail can be expected along with the potential for tornadoes, with low-level SRH/hodograph curvature maximized near the boundary(ies). Storms should remain semi-discrete for a duration through late afternoon/early evening, particularly given the relatively weak forcing-for-ascent influences. Even so, some eventual upscale growth is probable this evening with at least some increased potential for wind damage. ...Central/north Texas... A conditionally favorable environment for supercells will be in place along and east of a dryline into parts of central and north Texas this afternoon/evening. The potential for deep convective initiation remains highly uncertain, however, under the influence of height rises and residual mid-level capping. Regardless, at least a couple of late afternoon/early evening storms are plausible given modest near-dryline convergence and ample post-dryline heating/mixing. Should initiation occur and sustain, a conditional risk of very large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be present with any sustained supercell. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/11/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 10 14:04:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 10 14:04:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main threats. ...Oklahoma to southeast Kansas/Ozarks... Gradual height falls are expected toward the region on the southern periphery of an upper-level trough shifting eastward from the northern High Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will take place from Kansas toward the Upper Midwest as a cold front advances southeastward toward the Ozarks/central Oklahoma through tonight, while a dryline will extend from a secondary surface low southward across western North Texas/west-central Texas around peak heating. Modest-caliber moisture return will occur across the eastern halves of Texas/Oklahoma into the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints rising into the 50s F to locally near 60 F across the warm sector. A stout elevated mixed layer will likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorm initiation for much of the day, but MLCAPE will steadily increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range as robust diurnal heating occurs beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, conditional upon initiation. Isolated storm development cannot be entirely ruled out near the dryline/triple point across west-central/southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon/early evening, but substantial MLCIN across the warm sector is expected to limit this potential. A more probable scenario will be for increasing post-sunset development across north-central and especially northeast Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and the Missouri/Ozarks. This will be aided by a strengthening low-level jet and warm advection, with much of this development tending to be at least slightly elevated to the north of the front. Regardless, moderate buoyancy and strong effective shear will support some supercells capable of large hail. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible if any cells sustain along the boundary. ...Northern/central Texas... Deep convective potential is still currently expected to remain limited owing to factors such as persistent capping and only modest convergence near the dryline, but it is conceivable that a couple of storms could develop near the dryline late this afternoon. Such development might be aided by a subtle mid-level impulse/speed max over New Mexico early today. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks/daytime trends to see if an addition of at least low conditional-type severe probabilities are warranted given the potentially unstable air mass that will be in place near/east of the dryline. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/10/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 9 14:04:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 9 14:04:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... As a highly amplified large-scale pattern persists, a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to move eastward today, as an additional upstream trough amplifies over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A surface low will move across portions of New England during the day, while a stronger cyclone deepens over the central High Plains in response to the amplifying upper trough. Moisture will remain quite limited across the CONUS, resulting in a generally limited/spatially confined potential for thunderstorms. ...New England... Despite limited low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 30s to low 40s F), steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support the potential for isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms today as the surface low and attendant cold front move eastward across the region. Small hail and/or locally gusty winds could accompany the stronger convective elements, but the overall severe risk is expected to remain low due to very limited buoyancy. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... Weak convection may develop across portions of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon/evening, as the upper-level trough amplifies across the region. Inverted-V profiles will support the potential for locally strong/gusty winds across the lower elevations, but convection is expected to remain too weak and disorganized for an appreciable severe risk. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/09/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 8 14:03:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 8 14:03:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Fri Apr 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified flow pattern will exist over the CONUS and nearby Canada through tonight, with severe storms not expected owing to the general prevalence of limited moisture/instability. An upper trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will shift eastward through tonight. While moisture will be limited to the west of a cold front now over the western Atlantic, cold mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening lapse rates will allow for the possibility of isolated low-topped thunderstorms late this morning through afternoon across the Ohio Valley and northern/central Appalachians, and near the coastal Mid-Atlantic through early evening. A secondary upper trough is forecast to move inland over the Pacific Northwest today. Related forcing for ascent and orographic lift may support isolated lightning flashes from the Washington/Oregon coasts to the northern Rockies, primarily this afternoon. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/08/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 7 14:03:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 7 14:03:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States, as well as across the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a couple of tornadoes may occur. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Steady height falls and increasingly strong cyclonically curved mid/high-level winds are expected over the region owing to a slow-eastward shift of the prominent Midwest/Great Lakes-centered upper trough. The region will continue to be influenced early today by last night's extensive storms across Georgia/South Carolina with lingering cloud cover/some precipitation as well as somewhat lesser moisture quality with northward extent. Regardless, steady additional low-level moistening will occur today into the coastal Mid-Atlantic where lower 60s F surface dewpoints should become more common this afternoon coincident with a northward-shifting warm front, and ahead of an upstream cold front and modestly deepening surface low. Surface-based thunderstorms could develop in vicinity of the Piedmont as early as midday/early afternoon, with a subsequent increase in storm coverage and intensity farther east, particularly across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. A mixed convective mode including some semi-discrete supercells and bowing segments can be expected in the presence of strong effective shear. The potential for tornadoes and damaging winds should be regionally maximized in the immediate vicinity of the surface low and warm front across northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia this afternoon. Isolated large hail will be possible as well owing to relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and the long/semi-straight hodographs coincident with the cloud-bearing layer. ...Florida Peninsula... A southeast-moving surface front extends from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula, with scattered thunderstorms along and just ahead of it. A moist air mass with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s precedes the front, with early day visible satellite imagery showing relatively cloud-free skies over the central Peninsula to the south of the ongoing near-frontal convection. This will support MLCAPE up to around 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective shear of 40+ kt may support a few supercells and other well-organized bands/segments. Isolated large hail and locally damaging winds are most probable, but a tornado or two could also occur, particularly across the north-central Peninsula. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/07/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 6 13:55:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 6 13:55:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts, large hail, and several tornadoes are expected across the Southeast States and near the southern Appalachians this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Southeast States including AL/GA/SC... Prior outflow boundary and resultant moisture gradient via last evening's storms near the Georgia/Florida border vicinity will continue to decay and otherwise shift northward today effectively into/across Georgia as a weak warm front. Surface dewpoints rising through the upper 60s F and cloud breaks will result in moderate destabilization with upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Scattered thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely into early/mid-afternoon especially across central/eastern Alabama into Georgia, owing to pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector and/or near the imprint of the residual outflow boundary, with storms also increasing later in the afternoon farther northwest near the approaching upstream cold front. Deep-layer/low-level shear will tend to be regionally maximized across far southeast Alabama, the southern half of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, and in closer proximity to the approaching cold front this afternoon and evening, where cyclonically curved mid/high-level winds will be strengthening and backing. These sub-regional areas will be more supportive of some initial supercells including tornado and severe hail risks. Parts of central/southern Georgia into southern South Carolina, given the influence of prior outflow/warm front and strong deep-layer/low-level winds, may be a preferred corridor of tornado potential as well as eventual upscale quasi-linear growth and heightened/semi-focused wind potential by late afternoon/early evening. ...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A broad cluster of elevated storms are ongoing around sunrise near an east/southeastward-advancing cold front and to the north of a warm front across the Tennessee Valley. This complex of storms and related cloud debris should temper/delay downstream destabilization although low-level moisture will nonetheless increase into and across eastern Tennessee into eastern Kentucky through late afternoon and early evening. Somewhat stronger late-day destabilization is expected on the south/southwest flank of the early day complex of storms, within a relatively narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving cold front. This is expected across eastern Tennessee and other windward areas of the Appalachians. Presuming at least weak to locally moderate destabilization, forecast wind profiles are supportive of a mix of supercells and evolving bowing segments with the potential for hail/damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes across this region this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/06/2022 Read more

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PIB TO 60 N MOB TO 50 WNW GZH TO 35 WNW SEM TO 25 SE TCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 ..GLEASON..04/05/22 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-061- 067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-105-109-113-129-131- 051540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 95 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 051150Z - 051900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 650 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms including damaging winds and tornadoes, along with some hail, is expected to further increase this morning across the region. This will be as increasingly moist and unstable air mass develops across the region in the presence of strong deep-layer/low-level winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Meridian MS to 25 miles northeast of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more