Severe Storms

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E LCH TO 25 WSW MCB TO 20 ESE PIB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 ..GLEASON..04/05/22 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-117-121-125-051540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-035-045-073-091-109-113-147-051540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE FORREST HANCOCK Read more

WW 94 TORNADO AR LA MS CW 050815Z - 051600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast Arkansas Southern and Eastern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning from 315 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will move southeastward across the region through the early morning hours, with the possibility of additional and somewhat more isolated storms near/south of a warm front. Strengthening low-level winds and increasing moisture will support the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes aside from isolated large hail, especially near/north of the warm front. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Alexandria LA to 25 miles south southeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0405 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94...95... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Areas affected...Portions of southern MS into southern/central AL and the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...95... Valid 051345Z - 051515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94, 95 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest potential for tornadoes and damaging winds should focus across parts of southern Mississippi, southern/central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A small bowing line with embedded low-level circulations over parts of southern MS at 1345Z will move eastward across southern/central AL and the western FL Panhandle this morning. Surface-based storms appear most likely where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. Given the linear nature of this ongoing convection and the presence of 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear, damaging winds will continue to be a threat in the short term. Other, more cellular convection is occurring ahead of the line across southern into central AL within a strong low-level warm advection regime. Ample low-level shear noted on recent VWPs from KMOB and other area radars suggest the threat for tornadoes both within the line and with any supercells ahead of it will also persist this morning as convection spreads eastward across southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. The potential for a strong tornado may exist over portions of southern AL and the far western FL Panhandle in the next 1-2 hours, where the best instability and strongest low-level and deep-layer shear currently overlap. ..Gleason.. 04/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31228993 31608875 32308826 32708794 32648671 32458581 32168540 31388551 30948593 30628658 30548733 30568829 30638919 30998965 31228993 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Deep South, especially from southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama to the Carolinas. A swath of damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible across the region, including the risk of a strong tornado. ...Gulf Coast/Deep South/Coastal Southeast... The late-evening squall line across the ArkLaTex region has largely lost integrity in the predawn hours but multiple zones of mostly quasi-linear convection exist early this morning across Louisiana into southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama. Elevated storms with instances of large hail have occurred to the north of a north/northeastward-shifting warm front, while some semi-discrete showers/thunderstorms have increased within the coastal warm sector where lower 70s F surface dewpoints are increasingly common across southern Louisiana/southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama as of 12z. Aided by an eastward-progressive low-amplitude trough/MCV, at least a modestly organized squall line will persist eastward today from southeast Mississippi across southern Alabama and possibly the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia, while additional semi-discrete supercells may occur ahead of it. Multi-layer clouds are prevalent early this morning within much of the warm sector, but an increasingly moist air mass (14.6 g/kg mean mixing ratio at KLIX/Slidell LA) and insolation will quickly erode boundary layer inhibition in a broad corridor across southern Alabama, northern Florida and the southern half of Georgia into South Carolina. Strong wind profiles (effective shear magnitudes 45-60 kt) will support a multi-faceted severe storms including both semi-discrete warm sector supercells as well as fast-moving bows/mesovortices embedded within the broader QLCS. The potential for tornadoes along with swaths of damaging winds are expected across the region. The severe wind/tornado threat will persist as storms continue toward the southeast Atlantic coast by evening. ...Northeast Oklahoma/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon and early evening across the region near a southeastward-advancing front, with these storms increasing in coverage somewhat as they spread southeastward through the evening and early overnight. Buoyancy will be modest, especially with northern extent with initial development, but somewhat richer moisture and increased instability will exist across the Ozark Plateau and northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Wind profiles will be conducive for some severe storms and a few supercells, particularly into this evening. Severe hail, damaging winds, and/or a tornado risk are all possible on a relatively isolated basis. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/05/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 4 13:37:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 4 13:37:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms should start in parts of north Texas this afternoon and evening, shifting eastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A progressive, upper-air pattern is apparent over much of the CONUS, with the main perturbation for this forecast being a positively tilted trough initially from the Four Corners region southwestward across north-central Baja. This feature should elongate through the period, as it moves southeastward over northwestern MX and eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains. By 00Z, the CONUS portion should extend from central KS across the TX Panhandle to far west TX, then in the succeeding 12 hour, reach the Ozarks, Arklatex, and central TX, to near DRT. Convective vorticity generation overnight may help to strengthen this trough by the end of the period. Farther southeast, a weak, southern-stream shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the east-central Gulf, and should move over south FL this afternoon. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary to slow-moving cold front from northeast/south-central OK to a low between ABI-SPS, then arching southwestward across the Permian Basin. The low should migrate slowly/erratically east-northeastward across northwest/ north-central TX to near the Red River by 00Z, then eastward across southern AR by 12Z tomorrow. The cold front will move southeastward over northeast/central TX, though its baroclinicity may become weaker than that resulting from an expanding area of overnight outflow to its southeast. A marine/warm front drawn across south TX, near I-10, will become diffuse as it moves northward through central/north TX today and this evening, ahead of the convective processes described below. ...North TX to lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms should develop and increase near the surface low and front this afternoon, from the Red River region near SPS through parts of west-central TX, as the mid/upper trough approaches. Forecast wind profiles suggest some of this convection should evolve at least briefly into right- and/or left-moving supercells, offering large to significant/damaging hail, locally severe gusts, and for any sustained right-movers, a marginal tornado threat. This activity is expected to shift generally eastward, persist into the evening, grow upscale, and merge with any foregoing convection that forms in the (by then) weakly capped warm sector over north- central TX. The resulting MCS should organize a cold pool and sweep eastward to east-southeastward across the remainder of north-central/northeast TX -- including the DFW Metroplex -- then through the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z. The nighttime convective complex will pose a threat for severe gusts, a few tornadoes, and sporadic severe hail. Some parts of the MCS may translate around 50 mph through the Arklatex vicinity while the boundary layer remains neutrally to at least weakly unstable, with occasional hurricane-force gusts embedded in associated downbursts, LEWPs and bows. Accordingly, the main change to this outlook is to introduce an area of unconditional 10%+ significant-wind probabilities. Favorable low-level moisture will continue to advect from the Gulf and south TX across the outlook area, as fragmented/inconsistent diurnal heating occurs beneath variable warm-sector cloud cover. By early evening, a broad field of 60s F surface dew points should extent into north-central/northeast TX ahead of growing convection. Late-afternoon/evening MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg, amidst effective-shear magnitudes of 45-55 kt, will support storm organization. Preconvective hodographs should expand through the evening in north-central/northeast TX, southern AR and northern LA, as the LLJ strengthens to 45-55 kt. Whether discrete cells or (most likely) QLCS processes encounter the resulting favorable SRH, they should pose a tornado threat, along with the broader field of strong-severe winds produced by the complex. Eastward reach of the MCS by 12Z is uncertain, largely related to internal cold-pool dynamics and their superimposition on ambient deep-layer flow. Convection-allowing model guidance varies on the timing, as is common in such scenarios. As such, no changes are suggested to the lateral or eastern rim of the "enhanced" and "slight" areas at this time. ...Elsewhere in OK/TX... Thunderstorms north of the outflow boundary and behind the front today -- mainly over OK and northwest TX -- may produce sporadic, marginally severe hail. Isolated severe thunderstorms developing this evening over the Serranias del Burro of northern Coahuila also may reach nearby parts of south TX, potentially producing large hail and locally severe winds. The eastward progress of any such convection crossing the Rio Grande will be limited by MLCINH related to a combination of the basal EML inversion and nocturnal near-surface cooling. ...South FL... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop inland from midday through the afternoon -- mainly along sea-breeze boundaries south of a remnant front. Marginally severe gusts or hail may occur with the strongest cells. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer characterized by low 70s F surface dew points and 1.5-1.75-inch PW will remove MLCINH, while subtle forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave trough lessens some stable layers aloft. This all should yield peak preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range -- locally/briefly higher. Weak low-level winds/shear will keep hodographs small, and deep shear will me modest as well (effective- shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt). As such, the main mode should be multicellular, with convection diminishing markedly in coverage and intensity around sunset. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/04/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 3 13:40:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 3 13:40:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are expected across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern has transitioned temporarily to nearly zonal across the CONUS, perturbed my a series of northern-stream shortwave troughs across the northern tier of states that are not expected to influence severe potential directly this period. A mostly separate, positively tilted trough -- now located from northern parts of NV/CA across nearby parts of the Pacific -- will move east-southeastward through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, this trough should be strengthening, while located from central CO across southern AZ and north-central Baja. As that occurs, a weak, preceding perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern Baja/southern CA -- will move east-northeastward across AZ today and NM overnight, likely weakening further as the upstream trough amplifies. At 11Z, surface analysis showed an area of low pressure from near DUJ southeastward across the Delmarva Peninsula to the Atlantic east of Hampton Roads, along an occluded front. A cold front extended from the offshore part of the low-pressure area southwestward across south-central FL. The FL portion of the boundary should move slowly southward through the period while becoming more diffuse. The front will become quasistationary westward over the central/north-central Gulf. The western part was drawn as a warm front across south TX, and will move northward and become diffuse today across south to central TX. As limited northward moisture return occurs through that region, a dryline will develop across southwest/west-central TX, to near the OK/TX Panhandle border this afternoon. Farther north, a cold front (related to a northern-stream mid/upper perturbation) was drawn over south-central SD, western NE, to northeastern CO. This front will move southward/southeastward across the central Plains and southern High Plains through the period, reaching northeastern KS, northwestern OK, and the southern TX Panhandle by 00Z. The cold front will overtake the northern part of the dryline overnight, then by 12Z, extend from a low in the MSN/RFD region across south-central MO, south-central OK, and the Permian Basin region of west TX. ...Southern Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible near the dryline from late afternoon into early evening, moving generally eastward with sporadic damaging gusts and large hail possible. Despite locally strong heating, the air mass should remain devoid of deep convection through most of the afternoon, given capping related to a basal EML inversion. However, continued heating and lift near the dryline, along with increasing late-afternoon/early-evening moisture east of the dryline, and the eastern fringe of large-scale ascent ahead of the CA perturbation, will support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon into evening. Surface dew points from the mid 40s to mid 50s F will enable a north-south corridor of MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Near-surface winds will back with time into the evening, enlarging hodographs and increasing effective-shear magnitudes to near 50 kt. This will enable any relatively discrete convection to become supercellular with likely low-precip (LP) structure, into the twilight hour. Isolated large hail will be possible, despite the lack of greater inflow-layer moisture. Well-mixed subcloud layers also will foster locally severe downdraft gusts from loosely organized clusters that can form. Convection may persist eastward across the outlook area into the mid/late evening before a stabilizing boundary layer reduces severe-wind potential. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight atop outflow from evening activity, but with minimal severe potential (hail, if at all). ...South FL... Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today, with the main concerns being damaging gusts near severe limits and isolated, marginally severe hail. An outflow boundary near the Keys, from previous day's activity, is expected to drift northward and become diffuse into this afternoon, amidst favorable moisture and diurnally weakening MLCINH. Generally decreasing cloud cover with time this morning will allow sufficient heating to support MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, in tandem with surface dew points commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Despite a lack of substantial mid/upper-level ascent, thunderstorm development, both in clusters and as discrete cells, should form along and south of the front. Development should be concentrated especially where lift maximizes along sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries, as well as outflow boundaries produced from early convective processes. Though weak low-level flow will keep hodographs small and substantially limit boundary-layer shear, strong mid/upper westerlies beneath the subtropical jet will foster favorable cloud-layer shear, and effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt (locally higher). ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/03/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 2 14:40:02 UTC 2022.

MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021438Z - 021745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may begin initiating by 1-2 PM EDT, then pose a risk to produce severe hail and strong surface gusts through mid to late afternoon. Trends are being monitored for the possibility that this could require a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Convection-allowing model output is rather varied concerning potential convective evolution late this morning into mid afternoon, beneath generally zonal mid/upper flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. Low-amplitude shortwaves within one belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific remain out of phase with the branch of mid-level westerlies to its north. However, models do suggest that larger-scale mid-level flow may trend more broadly cyclonic through this afternoon, as a fairly vigorous short wave trough progresses east-southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Colder mid-level air (including temperatures of roughly +5 to -15C in the 700-500 mb layer) is in the process of spreading across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. Where surface dew points are now near 70F, this is expected to contribute to moderately large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg within the next few hours. Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, this might support increasing thunderstorm development as early as 17-18Z. Low-level wind fields are weak, but deep-layer shear beneath a strong sub-tropical jet is strong, and could contribute to the evolution of supercell structures. Some of this activity may pose a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts as storms intensify through mid to late afternoon. ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29738173 29408030 27577993 27648189 28158300 28888223 29738173 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are expected across mainly central parts of the Florida Peninsula today. ...Synopsis... A progressive, somewhat zonal mid/upper-level pattern has taken shape over the CONUS, with the most substantial perturbation being a trough now located from northwestern ON southward across IA/MO to the Arklatex region. A basal shortwave trough -- currently over western AR and east TX -- will outpace the remainder of the synoptic trough as it crosses the Tennessee Valley today. By 00Z, the shortwave trough should reach GA and the western Carolinas, possibly phasing with a convectively induced vorticity field to its south over the northeastern Gulf or northern FL. These features should move offshore to the Atlantic overnight, while the northern part of the synoptic trough moves slower across the Great Lakes and vicinity. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across central FL, to the outer shelf waters of LA and across deep south TX. A diffuse outflow boundary was drawn just to its south across central FL. These boundaries should blend into a single baroclinic zone across the peninsula through the remainder of the morning, before being modified by convection as discussed below. ...FL... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are expected over various parts of the outlook area today. Relatively discrete cells and cluster-embedded supercells will pose a threat for localized damaging downbursts and severe hail, while larger clusters will be a better-organized wind threat. Hail potential may extend somewhat north of the wind threat, with elevated cells (perhaps including a left-moving supercell or two) possible over parts of northern FL and the coastal-bend region. Tornado potential is marginal and conditional area-wide, given the generally weak low-level flow and small hodographs expected. However, supercell/boundary interactions may cause a tornado threat briefly on a local scale, especially near the front and sea breeze where boundary-layer vorticity can be maximized. An increasingly organized MCS is expected to move off the Gulf this afternoon and expand/intensify near the front, as it encounters a moist, diurnally destabilized boundary layer over the peninsula. The convection that should evolve into the MCS has developed and grown in coverage over the north-central/northeastern Gulf during the past few hours, along and north of the front. Also, strong to severe thunderstorms may form along the East Coast sea-breeze boundary (potentially merging with the MCS on the north end), and along outflow boundaries from the earliest convection. The preconvective environment should be characterized by MLCAPE growing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range, supported by temperatures in the 80s F, dew points in the 70s, and mean mixing ratios to near 15 g/kg. Though winds will be modest and mostly veered to southwesterly near the surface, strong mid/upper winds will provide ample cloud-layer shear, and effective-shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt are possible over most of the area. The severe threat should diminish from late afternoon into evening as the main cluster moves seaward to the Atlantic, and remaining surface boundaries become bracketed by outflow air and a nocturnally stabilizing preconvective boundary layer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/02/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 1 12:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast through the period. A high-amplitude trough -- currently located from the Great lakes to the southern Appalachians -- will deamplify slightly as it moves eastward over the Mid-Atlantic to New England by 00Z. An embedded/500-mb low should develop this evening over ME before the trough moves across adjoining Atlantic waters and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, a series of vorticity maxima characterize a synoptic trough that is apparent in moisture-channel imagery, from a low near the SK/MB border southward across the northern High Plains and central/southern Rockies. The trough should move eastward to the Dakotas, central NE, west-central KS, and the southern High Plains by 00Z, with a strong/basal perturbation over the TX Panhandle and South Plains. By 12Z tomorrow, the larger trough should extend from northwestern ON across MN, IA, and MO, through the basal perturbation over the Arklatex and east TX. The 11Z surface analysis showed a cold front across north-central FL to the central Gulf. This boundary will move slowly southward though much of the day before stalling across central FL, under parallel flow aloft. A low was analyzed over east-central CO, and is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Plains to southern IA or northernmost MO by 12Z, with a weak cold front trailing over OK and northwest TX. ...FL... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across the central peninsula throughout the day, mainly focused on the warmer parts of the frontal zone this morning, and later today on the eastern sea breeze. Isolated, marginally severe hail/gusts can occur from the most intense cells, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this morning, before hodographs shrink from veering/weakening with time of near-surface winds. Effective-shear magnitudes will remain in the 35-50-kt range this morning before gradually weakening, with the possible exception of localized favorable shear near the afternoon sea breeze. Surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s F, combined with intermittent/fragmented insolation under broken cloud cover, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, locally/briefly near 2000 J/kg. Coverage of the best-organized convection is in question, given expected slow weakening of frontal lift (related partly to the veering to its south), and lack of substantial mid/upper support. Still, isolated supercells or bowing segments may yield a localized severe threat. ...Southern Plains... Scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over northeastern NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, moving east-southeastward and expanding laterally in coverage toward parts of western OK and northwest TX this evening. Isolated severe gusts will be the main concern, with hail being limited by lack of greater inflow-layer moisture. Some potential exists for a mesobeta-scale concentration of severe gusts to develop within the broader outlook area. Threat probabilities may need to be upgraded in a succeeding outlook, if warranted based on mesoscale trends and 12Z and later guidance. The underlying boundary layer will be unusually dry for a southern High Plains severe scenario, with surface dew points only in the 20s and 30s F. However, given the strong cooling aloft expected to overlap a diurnally heated/well-mixed boundary layer, surface-based effective-inflow parcels are expected into early evening, fostering MLCAPE in the 100-500 J/kg range. The gust potential should diminish with eastward extent this evening as the foregoing boundary layer diabatically stabilizes/cools fairly quickly, still with modest moisture. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/01/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 1 12:54:02 UTC 2022.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z CORRECTED FOR DAY-7 AND 8 LABELS ...DISCUSSION... A complex pattern is evident during the Day 4-8 period with several mid/upper shortwave troughs, surface lows and cold fronts anticipated to impact severe potential across parts of Texas into the southeastern U.S. through Day 6/Wed. ...Day 4/Monday - Central/Eastern TX into Western LA... A mid/upper trough is forecast to shift east from the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico to OK/TX. A stalled front is forecast to extend from northwest TX to the Lower OH Valley early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across central/east TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast. As the western trough ejects eastward, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over TX and shift east toward AR/LA. While uncertainty exists in the northward extent of better moisture transport, a corridor of moderate instability amid 40+ kt effective shear will exist from central TX into western LA. Strong to severe thunderstorms, including supercells, will be possible from central/eastern TX into western LA. All severe hazards will be possible. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... The positive-tilt mid/upper trough extending from the Ozark Plateau into TX will shift east/northeast across the TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. A strong warm advection regime will exist across the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states as enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the region. There is some uncertainty in how much destabilization will occur as clouds and widespread rainfall could envelop much of the area. However, ensemble guidance indicates at least pockets of modest destabilization within a strongly sheared environment, as a weak surface low lifts northeast from AR/LA to the central Appalachians through the evening hours. This should support at least isolated severe potential. ...Day 6/Wednesday - TN Valley/southern Appalachians Vicinity... A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the central U.S. A strong cold front is forecast to advance east/southeast across the southern and central U.S. Ensemble guidance indicates adequate moisture will reside ahead of the front across the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians with temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. Strong deep-layer shear, mainly parallel to the surface boundary will support potential QLCS development and an attendant damaging wind threat across portions of the region. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... The central U.S. mid/upper trough will move offshore during the end of the period. Some severe potential could develop across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but guidance varies considerably in timing of both surface and upper level features, resulting in low confidence. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 31 14:34:02 UTC 2022.

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AAF TO 5 E TLH TO 15 NE MGR TO 35 W VDI TO 40 NNW VDI. ..KERR..03/31/22 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-047-065-067-079-121-123-129-311540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-019-027-065-069-075-101-107-161-173-185-209-271- 279-283-299-309-311540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BROOKS CLINCH COFFEE COOK ECHOLS EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARE WHEELER Read more

WW 85 TORNADO FL GA CW 311035Z - 311800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend area and northwestern Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 635 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong-severe thunderstorms, with occasional, embedded supercells, bows and mesovortices, will continue to pose a threat of tornadoes and damaging winds this morning. Activity should move into a destabilizing air mass later this morning across southern Georgia and the coastal bend. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Apalachicola FL to 80 miles northeast of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 84. Watch number 84 will not be in effect after 635 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Edwards Read more