Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 16 13:34:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL... ...SUMMARY... The densest corridor of severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from southern Arkansas to southern Alabama. More-isolated and/or marginal severe weather is possible elsewhere from parts of south Texas to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal flow will prevail in mid/upper levels over most of the CONUS, south of a synoptic trough over the Northeast and QC, and a strong shortwave trough that will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies. Another well-defined shortwave trough -- loosely phased with the Northwest feature at this time -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery approaching the central/northern CA coastline. This perturbation should outrun the northern-stream one and move eastward to parts of the central/ southern High Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, convectively induced/enhanced, cyclonic vorticity lobes now over AL and AR will move eastward to southeastward across the Southeast today. Surface 11Z analysis showed a cold front across parts of western TN, central AR and eastern OK, through a frontal-wave low between FTW-SPS, then across northern parts of the Permian Basin region of west TX. The low should shift southeastward to east TX today, with the front reaching south-central/southwest TX by 00Z. By 12Z, a weaker version of the low should be located over northern LA, with cold front across southeast/deep south TX and eastern/northern Coahuila. An outflow boundary from southern AL across northern MS should sag southward over MS through the day. ...AR/MS/LA/AL... A corridor of damaging-wind and large-hail potential, with a tornado also possible, exists ahead of a strong-severe thunderstorm complex now over portions of AR. For near-term considerations, refer to SPC watch 134 and related mesoscale discussions. This activity and/or additional, surface-based severe convection should be focused today along and south of the outflow boundary and well east of the surface low. Preconvective low-level vorticity/ lift will be maximized along the boundary, with theta-e/instability diminishing to its north. To its south, rich low-level moisture, and limited/gradual diurnal heating beneath cloud cover, should remove most MLCINH and boost MLCAPE to around 1500-2000 J/kg. Meanwhile, 40-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, supporting mixed modes (messy/HP supercells, bowing QLCS segments and multicell clusters). ...TX MRGL area... Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front this afternoon, and maintain access to a favorably moist-heated warm sector long enough to produce severe gusts and large hail. Any relatively discrete convection that matures could become supercellular, at least for a short time, and offer very large/damaging hail. As such, a conditional significant-severe hail threat exists; however, concerns over low convective coverage and limited duration preclude assigning an unconditional 10%/significant-hail area. Forecast soundings suggest a brief period late this afternoon when minimal MLCINH and steep low-level lapse rates combine with surface dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s F, to yield 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though low-level flow will be weak, effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt should be common. Forecast moisture profiles suggest mixing/entrainment may be a hindrance for convection, as can be frontal undercutting. ...Eastern MRGL area... The eastern extent of diurnal development associated with the AL MCV and associated outflow/differential-heating boundaries is uncertain, with weaker low-level shear and midlevel lapse rates expected. Still, portions of southeastern AL, GA and the eastern/southern Carolinas may experience isolated severe potential -- southeast of those boundaries and the front -- and perhaps along sea-breeze boundaries as well. Modest low/middle-level flow will limit vertical shear overall, except where locally enhanced along favorably oriented boundaries, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly in the 25-40-kt range. Somewhat stronger deep/cloud-layer shear may exist over the Carolinas part of the area. Peak/ preconvective MLCAPE generally should reach the 500-1200 J/kg range through the afternoon. ..Edwards/Smith.. 04/16/2022 Read more

WW 0134 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 134 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLC TO 15 ENE TUL. ..SMITH..04/16/22 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 134 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-019-029-033-039-045-047-051-053-059-071-083-087-097- 101-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-141-143-149-161240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CLARK CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-145-161240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH Read more

WW 134 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 160655Z - 161500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday morning from 155 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A growing area of strong-severe thunderstorms, initially in watch 132, will persist beyond that watch's expiration time, and expand/shift into Arkansas as well. Additional thunderstorms should form in both areas through at least midmorning. Large hail (some potentially 2+ inches in diameter) will be the main threat. Some of the storms may become surface-based in Arkansas, and a severe-gust potential or conditional tornado threat may develop. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Muskogee OK to 5 miles north of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 132...WW 133... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Edwards Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 15 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 15 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail will be the main threat with thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks region into the lower Mississippi Valley, this evening and tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a long, west/east-oriented trough will extend across southern Canada. Attached cyclones are located over southern BC and northern ON near Lake Superior. The BC low temporarily will retrograde a short distance offshore, as the ON low moves northeastward toward James Bay. This will result in a continued broad fetch of essentially zonal flow over most of the CONUS, with only very weak/embedded perturbations. One of those weak shortwave troughs is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern UT/western CO region. With ambient height rises forecast, this perturbation should weaken over time as it moves eastward to the southern High Plains by 00Z, and to northern OK by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across northern IL, northwestern MO and northeastern KS, becoming quasistationary west-southwestward go a low over southwestern KS. This boundary is expected to move southward as a cold front across the Ozarks, much of OK and the TX Panhandle through the period, as the low redevelops southeastward by 12Z over the Red River region of south-central OK/extreme north-central TX. A marine/warm front over coastal LA/southeast TX and south-central TX bounds the northern part of a maritime/tropical air mass with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface dewpoints observed this morning over deep south TX to the upper TX Coast. This boundary is forecast to move northward and become diffuse today, amidst a broad low-level warm-advection regime. As moisture returns northward through central/eastern portions of TX/OK and the Arklatex region toward the Ozarks, a dryline will become better-defined across west-central/northwest TX into western/central OK, intersecting the cold front over north-central OK around 00Z. ...Eastern OK/Ozarks region to lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms should form late this afternoon near or north of the northern front, over the Ozarks region and/or northeastern OK, becoming more intense and numerous this evening as convection moves east-southeastward to southeastward across the outlook area. Large hail is the main concern, and some of the hail may become significant and especially damaging, at 2+ inches in diameter. Isolated damaging gusts also may occur. Tornado potential is non-zero, but marginal and very conditional, given the early stage of return flow (lack of more-robust moisture and of lower LCL). The dryline itself should stay capped along the great majority if not all) of its length in OK/TX. With height rises forecast (even ahead of the weak mid/upper perturbation), large-scale support other than warm advection will be modest at best, and the bulk of activity may hold until after dark as moisture content increases below LFC. A combination of theta-e advection and diurnal heating will destabilize the low levels throughout the day, beneath an inversion later at the foot of an EML evident in morning RAOBS to the west and southwest. The cap should weaken through late afternoon to around 00Z, fostering the development of a 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE corridor (locally/ briefly higher) from south-central to northeastern OK. Steepening low-level lapse rates and some vertical mixing will lead to high-LCL well-mixed boundary layers suitable for strong-severe gust potential in any cells that can develop before too much evening near-surface cooling/stabilization occurs to substantially inhibit such gusts from reaching the surface. However, the greater threat (especially with any relatively discrete activity) will be severe and locally significant/damaging hail. Wind profiles favor supercell potential to optimize updraft strength in favorable hail-growth layers, as flow veers with height and effective-shear magnitudes commonly attain the 50-65-kt range. Lingering dryness in the subcloud layer will support evaporative cooling in downdrafts and maintenance of much of the hail size from its peak in-cloud growth to the surface. Severe potential should peak during the evening, diminishing slowly overnight (and with eastward extent) as convective mode gets more messy/clustered and inflow-layer buoyancy slowly weakens (with a deepening near-surface stable layer). ..Edwards/Smith.. 04/15/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 14 13:57:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 14 13:57:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Steady height falls are expected as the region is increasingly influenced by the lead portion of an upstream upper trough over the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F) will be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, and to the south of a wedge/backdoor front across southern parts of New England. Relatively robust heating (70s to low 80s F) will result in the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front by mid-afternoon, with convection spreading into the I-95 corridor by late afternoon or early evening. Relatively strong mid-level flow on the periphery of the large mid/upper-level low will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for some storm organization. Low-level flow is expected to remain rather weak, but relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind gusts potential with the strongest cells/clusters through around sunset. ...Georgia to Carolinas/southeast Virginia... Prevalent multi-layer clouds exist or are moving into the region today in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. More appreciable forcing for ascent will be directed north of the region, but weak height falls will tend to occur along with a strengthening of winds aloft, especially with northward extent. Although questions exist regarding the exact degree of destabilization due to early day cloud cover, at least modest diurnal destabilization is expected by mid/late afternoon ahead of the cold front and probable increasing thunderstorm development. This developing afternoon convection may remain somewhat disorganized due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some potential for damaging winds with the strongest storms. Marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out in areas where somewhat stronger buoyancy can materialize. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/14/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 13 14:46:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 13 14:46:02 UTC 2022.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0814 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Arkansas Central and Southern Illinois Western and Middle Tennessee Southern and Eastern Missouri Western and Central Kentucky Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Louisiana Western and Northern Alabama * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022 Read more

MD 0472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...central and eastern MO...western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131238Z - 131445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible through the mid morning. Storm coverage and the limited magnitude of the risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance in the short term (through 10am). DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over central MO in the vicinity of a cold front pushing east-southeast across the lower MO Valley this morning. Surface temperatures ahead of this thunderstorm activity are in the mid to upper 60s with lower 60s dewpoints, yielding a marginally unstable airmass. There is some uncertainty regarding destabilization this morning over the mid MS Valley due in part to an extensive cloud shield and deleterious effects emanating from the puddle of convectively processed air over the lower MS Valley at least potentially affecting this region. Nonetheless, as an intense mid-level shortwave trough over the TX Panhandle approaches this region later today, an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity is expected. However, in the meantime, the overall limited buoyancy in place across the mid MS Valley through mid morning will likely limit both the magnitude and coverage to a potential severe threat. Marginally severe hail and wind damage would be the hazards with this activity. ..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37899301 39549185 39849078 39639013 39199003 38479058 37579255 37899301 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 12 13:50:02 UTC 2022.

MD 0453 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...far northwestern South Dakota...and much of western North Dakota. Concerning...Blizzard Valid 121348Z - 121745Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are beginning across portions of western North Dakota, far northwest South Dakota, and far eastern Montana. DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has begun across a broad swath of the northern Plains. Winds are already strong (sustained 25 knots with gusts 35 to 40 knots) and are expected to strengthen through the afternoon. Blizzard conditions have already been reported at KHEI and KBHK this morning. Widespread blizzard conditions are expected across much of western North Dakota, far eastern Montana, and far northwest South Dakota later this morning and this afternoon. Snowfall rates up to 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected late this morning and into early afternoon across central North Dakota with these conditions expected to persist for several hours before lifting into northern North Dakota. Moderate snow will remain in its wake with snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour persisting well beyond this afternoon. Some locations are forecast to receive over 2 feet of snow with persistent blizzard to near blizzard strength winds and visibilities expected for the next 24 to 48 hours. This is expected to cause extreme impacts across the region. ..Bentley.. 04/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46110471 47090440 47710363 48360263 48470059 48179998 47319973 46400040 45760233 45560373 45550444 45690482 46110471 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Middle Missouri Valley and Midwest this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Eastern Nebraska Northwest Missouri Eastern Kansas Southern Minnesota Far Southeast South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Portions of west-central/north-central Iowa have been upgraded to a Categorical Moderate Risk, with a somewhat focused potential for tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds expected late this afternoon and evening near the surface low and nearby triple point/warm front vicinity. Potentially intense thunderstorm development, including surface-based convection and elevated storms to the north of the northward-shifting warm front, is expected by late afternoon across eastern Nebraska/northwest Iowa/southeast Minnesota generally near the surface low/triple point. Moisture return across the warm sector will be relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), but will be sufficient for the development of moderate buoyancy due to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite favorable for supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity of the warm front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged low-level hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within this regime will be capable of all severe hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Later this evening, more widespread/southward-spatially expanding convection is expected along the eastward-surging cold front, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat this evening. Damaging winds aside, a tornado threat will also exist with any embedded circulations within the line of frontal convection given the robust magnitude of low-level winds (upwards of 60-70 kt) in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Overall storm intensity will tend to diminish by early in the overnight. ...Central/North Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... A southern-stream/lead shortwave trough nearing the south Texas/Mexico border vicinity this morning will continue northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss through evening. Storms may develop as soon as mid-afternoon near the dryline as it extends across north/west-central Texas. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized clusters into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat of very large hail and severe wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. Any supercells that can persist into the richer low-level moisture east of the dryline may also pose some tornado threat. An additional/somewhat separate corridor of potentially severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening farther east across far east Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas. While the details are a bit unclear, strengthening deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy would be supportive of at least some hail/wind potential, and low-level shear/helicity, enhanced by a diurnally sustained branch of the low-level jet, may be sufficient for a couple of tornadoes as well. ...Central/eastern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas... A conditionally favorable supercell environment will exist late this afternoon into evening along and ahead of the dryline that will exist from central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. However, this region will be between the main mid-level trough and surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude shortwave trough to the south. Most convection-allowing models continue to show very little signal for deep convective initiation in this region. However, some global guidance such as multiple runs of the ECMWF depict isolated development across central Oklahoma, and this may be plausible given ample post-dryline heating/mixing and confluence/modest convergence near the dryline. If/where storms develop and sustain, localized intense/significant severe weather may occur. Very large hail would be a possibility and a tornado risk will likely exist as well, especially if any storms are sustained through early/mid-evening as low-level hodographs further enlarge. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/12/2022 Read more