Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will start to overspread the Southwest on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves out of southern Arizona into New Mexico. Deep mixing will bring some of this stronger flow to the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph expected. Relative humidity of 8 to 15 percent is expected in a region with 90th percentile ERCs. Therefore, elevated conditions are expected late morning and continuing into the evening hours across much of southeast Arizona and southwest/western New Mexico. A smaller area of critical fire weather conditions are most likely across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where these strongest winds are expected and the greatest chance for large fire spread will exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Arkansas into and lower Ohio Valley and Middle Tennessee Sunday afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A somewhat active upper pattern (by mid-June standards) is anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to drop southward into the Upper Great Lakes, encouraged southward by a shortwave trough progressing through its southern periphery across the Mid MS, OH and TN Valleys. Expectation is for this shortwave to be over the central/southern Appalachians by early Monday morning. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the St. Louis vicinity early Sunday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central MO and central OK to another low in northwest TX. This cold front is forecast to push southeastward throughout the day, as the surface low moves northeastward across the OH Valley. By 00Z Monday, expectation is for this cold front to stretch from the low in southern OH southwestward across western KY through the Mid-South and Arklatex to another low over north-central TX. Farther west, an upper low initially over the southern CA coast will likely track northeastward across southern CA and southern NV. As it does, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate through its western periphery into the Great Basin. Additionally, strong mid-level flow associated with this low will spread eastward through the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South into the OH/TN Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Mid MS Valley early Sunday morning, in the vicinity of the surface low. General expectation is for storm intensity and coverage to gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches, encouraging the surface low northeastward and its attendant front southeastward. Moderate air mass destabilization is anticipated ahead of the front from central AR into western/middle TN. Shear will be modest, but sufficient for a few more organized multicell clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the risk for damaging gusts, with a few updrafts likely strong enough to produce hail as well. Less destabilization is expected farther north across the OH Valley, but increased shear and ascent near the surface could still contribute to gusty winds with more robust storms. ...Central/Southern High Plains.. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of CO Sunday afternoon. Mean westerly flow will likely push these storms off the higher terrain into the adjacent plains, where moist post-frontal, easterly flow is expected. Veering wind profiles will contribute to moderate vertical shear, and the potential for a few supercells capable of all severe hazards. ...Great Basin.. Thunderstorms coverage is expected to increase during the afternoon as ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough moves through the modestly buoyancy air mass over the region. Steep low-level lapse rates will be in place, with modest mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures responsible for the buoyancy. High cloud bases and a few stronger updrafts may result in a few stronger downdrafts within this well-mixed environment. ...North TX into the Arklatex... A more conditional risk for an isolated severe storm or two is anticipated as the air mass recovers ahead of the approaching front. Warm and dry mid-levels from preceding convection may prevent deep convection, but there is some chance there is enough heating to remove this inhibition. If storms do develop, the overall environment should support supercells, with large hail as the primary threat. ..Mosier.. 06/10/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 9 22:16:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0961 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092113Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. DISCUSSION...While most CAM guidance, other than the NAM, mixed out dewpoints across the Texas Panhandle today, it has not materialized with upper 50 to low 60s dewpoints across much of the Texas Panhandle. As a result, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed across the region with only weak inhibition, per SPC mesoanalysis. A few storms have developed along a dryline from near Clovis to north of Lubbock with some additional towers observed beneath the cirrus plume. A broad region of ascent will continue to overspread this region through the evening which could help aid in storm development. If sustained updrafts can develop, supercell organization is possible with with around 40 knots of effective shear. These supercells will have a primary hazard of large hail, but a greater damaging wind threat could develop if more scattered development occurs and they consolidate into a linear segment. Would expect the threat to remain too isolated/short-lived for a watch, but if the severe threat becomes more widespread or shows signs of being longer lasting, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 33500128 34300211 34670312 34960370 35540420 36560284 36630102 35639979 34549950 33819946 33369957 33110004 33500128 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible late this afternoon into early tonight, mainly from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward in the Raton Mesa vicinity, where convection is increasing within a modestly unstable and sheared environment. Also, the 5% hail has been expanded into central NE, where severe hail was noted earlier this afternoon, and MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg may continue to support isolated hail with the strongest storms. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See MCD 958 for more information regarding the short-term threat in the central Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 06/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ...Eastern CO/western KS to west TX through tonight... Embedded speed maxima within the southern stream will eject east-northeastward from NM toward the southern High Plains through tonight. This will support continued weak lee troughing across the southern High Plains, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to mix into the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon immediately east of the trough/dryline. Thunderstorm initiation appears more probable along the east slopes of the higher terrain in southeast CO by early-mid afternoon, and convection will spread eastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle/northern TX Panhandle through early tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt with relatively straight hodographs), but MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and DCAPE > 1200 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates will favor occasional severe outflow gusts as the main threat late this afternoon into early tonight. The degree of storm cluster organization is somewhat in question, but the threat for severe gusts appears to be high enough to warrant a Slight risk area. Farther south, a few storms should form this afternoon near the high terrain in southwest TX, and storms will subsequently spread eastward this evening. Deep mixing will support high-based storms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Thunderstorm development is less certain along the arcing dryline from west central TX into the TX Panhandle. If storms form, there will be a conditional threat for damaging gusts and some hail. ...FL this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move eastward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, while a surface front stalls near the FL/GA border. Strong surface heating is underway across FL, and thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along the front across north FL and along sea breeze boundaries. Weak low-midlevel, west/southwesterly flow profiles will favor the Atlantic coast sea breeze for primary storm development, with multicell clusters the main storm mode. Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts with downbursts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Only minor changes were made to the forecast based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A relative weakness in mid-level flow is anticipated for much of the day Saturday. However, surface conditions will be very dry with single digit relative humidity across much of southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. Late Saturday afternoon, some stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread southern New Mexico ahead of an approaching mid-level jet streak. The strongest winds will remain over northern Mexico during peak heating, but some stronger flow is expected to overspread southern New Mexico and vicinity with sustained surface winds of 15 to 20 mph for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening. Therefore, an Elevated fire weather risk is warranted for southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico, primarily for the late afternoon to early evening period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex, and lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible across the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley, with some potential for very large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two across parts of north and central Texas. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, a seasonably deep upper-level trough will shift slowly eastward across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS on Saturday, as a notable upper ridge remains in place from the northern High Plains into the Canadian Prairies, and a longwave trough generally remains in place from the Great Lakes into much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move through the northern and eventually central Plains, with a frontal wave expected to move southeastward somewhere across NE/KS, and another weak surface wave potentially developing near a surface trough across the southern High Plains. ...ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions... A thunderstorm cluster or loosely organized MCS may be ongoing somewhere across OK/north TX/western AR Saturday morning, aided by low-level warm advection. Some rejuvenation and/or redevelopment along the gust front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon into parts of the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions, as rather strong heating and destabilization occurs downstream of any morning convection. Scattered damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible if this scenario does evolve on Saturday. Any storm cluster or MCS would likely tend to lose organization as it moves toward the lower MS Valley, due to weaker deep-layer shear and low-level inflow with eastward extent, though some damaging wind threat could persist with any remnant cluster into central/southern MS. A few strong multicells could also develop across parts of AR/MS ahead of any outflow-driven cluster during the afternoon, within a warm, buoyant, and uncapped environment. ...Parts of north/central into east TX... Confidence is rather high regarding the development of severe thunderstorms somewhere across central/north TX Saturday afternoon, as a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough moves across the region and an outflow boundary potentially spreads into the area from the north. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding the position of the outflow boundary (if any) during the afternoon. In general, scattered storm development will be possible near any outflow boundary, and also along a diffuse surface trough/dryline that may gradually mix eastward during the afternoon. Strong heating of a favorably moist environment will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near/south of any outflow boundary, and along/east of the weak surface trough/dryline. Midlevel west-northwesterly flow will not be overly strong, but sufficient to support 30-40 kt of effective shear (greater where surface winds are locally backed), and initial development may quickly evolve into supercells with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, depending on mesoscale details regarding the orientation of any outflow boundary and the extent of modification on the cool side of the boundary. With time, storm clustering may result in some upscale growth, with a threat of damaging winds and embedded hail spreading south-southeastward Saturday evening into portions of central/southeast TX. Storms will eventually move into a region of weaker deep-layer shear and increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat may reach as far as the upper TX coast Saturday night. ...Central Plains... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across the High Plains, and along/ahead of the cold front from central/eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally remain rather weak, with some uncertain potential for locally enhanced shear near any MCVs. One or more weakly organized clusters may eventually evolve and move east/southeastward with time across the region, with an attendant threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/09/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 8 21:48:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 8 21:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... The most likely corridor for large hail and isolated damaging winds will be across a portion of southeast Texas into early evening. ...South central/southeast TX through this evening... Convection is ongoing from just east of San Antonio to north/northeast of College Station. The somewhat stronger vertical shear and potential for more organized/supercell storms with large hail will remain from the San Antonio cluster southeastward, in association with a remnant MCV. Farther northeast, weaker vertical shear suggests more pulse-type storms into southeast TX, where isolated wind damage and large hail may occur for the next few hours. ...ND area this afternoon through tonight... Convection is forming this afternoon along a wind shift/front across west central ND. Flow is weak over this area near the midlevel ridge, but moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg) and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support the threat for occasional strong-severe gusts and isolated large hail with multicell clusters that will spread slowly east/southeastward through tonight. ...South GA and vicinity the remainder of the afternoon... Storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated, given weak forcing for ascent and relatively dry midlevel air. However, a few storms remain possible along a weak front from southern SC across south GA and far north FL. Moderate buoyancy and rather weak vertical shear will primarily support multicell storms with a marginal wind threat. Slightly stronger vertical shear is present near the front across southern SC, where isolated large hail may also occur. ..Thompson.. 06/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023/ ...Southeast TX... An MCV over central TX will track southeast off the Upper TX Gulf Coast this evening. Nearly full insolation will occur ahead of the MCV coincident with upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points which persist north of an MCS that tracked across Deep South TX earlier this morning. This should yield a pocket of moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg at peak heating. Consensus of CAM guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms should develop ahead of the MCV, with the 12Z WRF-NSSL indicative of at least scattered coverage which would typically be expected with an MCV. Guidance generally indicates slight mid-level warming in forecast soundings which may explain the tendency for more isolated coverage in most CAMs. A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies from 30-40 kt should be relegated to south-central TX and the Middle/Lower TX Gulf Coast. A relatively confined overlap of favorable CAPE/shear space should occur in a portion of southeast TX. With minimal 0-3 km SRH, updraft rotation should be limited to the mid-levels. Main threat will be large hail along with isolated damaging winds until convection moves offshore this evening. ...South GA/SC and north FL... A slowly southward-sagging surface cold front will serve as a focus for at least isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon across parts of the Southeast. West-southwesterly low-level flow will persist ahead of the front similar to yesterday, but mid-level westerlies will be stronger today owing to a jet arcing across the southern Appalachians and the NC/SC border area. This should compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates and may yield small to marginally severe hail over the Lower Savannah Valley. Otherwise, with nearly full insolation, steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for a primary threat of strong to marginally severe microbursts. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic Coast... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should persist through the mid-afternoon until lower-topped, frontal-forced thunderstorms move offshore. A pocket of steeper 850-600 mb lapse rates in conjunction with an elongated hodograph in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile will support small to marginally severe hail production. This may enhance downdraft potential over the Delmarva peninsula where boundary-layer heating is relatively greater and yield locally strong surface gusts despite weak low-level flow. For additional information, please see MCD 952. ...Northern Great Plains... An upper ridge persists across the central Great Plains northwestward into eastern MT. With 60-64 F boundary-layer dew points, an arc of moderately large buoyancy with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop from parts of eastern MT to the eastern Dakotas. Deep-layer shear will be rather weak, especially within the axis of the mid-level ridge, suggesting that slow-moving, pulse storms will dominate. 15-25 kt effective bulk shear may develop across parts of central to eastern ND where light low-level southeasterlies persist beneath modest mid to upper-level west-northwesterlies. In this regime, sporadic occurrences of isolated severe wind gusts and large hail should peak in the late afternoon to early evening, before waning after sunset. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z No Changes; see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough on the East Coast will begin to eject into the Atlantic as a mid-level impulse overspreads the Desert Southwest tomorrow/Friday. Dry air will continue to meander around the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and points eastward to the Carolina Piedmont, but with weak surface wind fields. The lack of stronger surface winds suggests that fire-weather spread potential should remain more localized. As the western upper-level impulse overspreads the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. 15 mph sustained westerly surface flow is forecast to overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS... AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should occur Saturday across parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Miss. ...Updated discussion... A storm cluster and associated MCV are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of central OK Saturday morning. The convection will likely persist through the day while spreading east-southeastward toward the ArkLaTex and the Ark-La-Miss regions, with an accompanying threat for damaging winds. Outflow with the MCS will likely spread southward into TX, and potentially provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Storms along the outflow, especially if it can stall by mid-late afternoon, will have the potential to be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail. The potential for additional diurnal development in northwest OK and KS, in the wake of the morning convection, is highly uncertain. Given background shortwave ridging, plus subsidence in the wake of the MCV, the potential for severe storms appears limited at best. --Previous discussion below issued at 0730z-- ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... Associated with modest low-level warm advection, mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of OK towards the Ozarks. With steep mid-level lapse rates present and ample MUCAPE available, this convection may pose an isolated threat for severe hail Saturday morning. This activity may produce an outflow boundary, which could provide a focus for renewed thunderstorm development across parts of OK Saturday afternoon. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to continue moving eastward across the southern Plains through the period. A surface dryline should mix eastward across TX by late Saturday afternoon. This boundary should also provide a focus for severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain through the day due to the influence of morning thunderstorms, and weak large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Regardless, ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass east of the dryline should foster moderate to strong MLCAPE by late afternoon. Any convection that can initiate along the dryline will likely become severe. Somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels and steep mid-level lapse rates should support an isolated threat for very large hail with any discrete thunderstorms that initially develop. The potential for one or more convective clusters/MCSs is less clear, but still possible. Some guidance suggests that robust thunderstorms will develop on the southern flank of the morning convection, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex vicinity and eventually lower MS Valley. A destabilizing airmass ahead of this possible MCS would support some threat for damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to account for this potential. Otherwise, discrete thunderstorms may grow upscale into an MCS Saturday evening as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. This convection may also pose a threat for severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward. ..Thompson.. 06/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe outflow gusts will be possible late Friday afternoon/evening from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Great Plains Friday afternoon into Friday night... A midlevel trough will persist over the Northeast, with an associated threat for diurnal convection with the midlevel cold pool. Farther west, weak ridging aloft will persist over the High Plains, with a weak trough over the Great Basin. A weak southern stream will remain across NM, and an embedded speed maximum will eject northeastward by Friday evening. Lingering low-level moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate buoyancy across much of the Plains tomorrow afternoon. A somewhat better focus for thunderstorm development will be in the immediate lee of the higher terrain across southeast CO tomorrow afternoon/evening, downstream from the weak ejecting trough. The storm environment will support a mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells initially, given MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near 30 kt. Storms should grow upscale during the evening through outflow interactions, and a cluster is expected to move southeastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle early Friday night. The strongest storms in the cluster could produce a few severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, along with isolated large hail. The storms will spread southeastward overnight into the main body of OK, though they should weaken during the early morning hours. Otherwise, isolated strong-severe storms may occur farther south along the dryline into parts of west TX, though storm coverage is a bit in question. Farther north, vertical shear will generally remain weak. However, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge across eastern SD early in the day, which will then move southward through the afternoon. Isolated strong-severe gusts and large hail may occur with the strongest storms with the MCV. ...FL tomorrow afternoon... A stalled front and local sea breeze circulations will help focus widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development Friday afternoon across north FL and along the Atlantic coast in the westerly flow regime aloft. Moderate buoyancy and slightly enhanced vertical shear will favor a mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells, with an attendant threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and large hail. ..Thompson.. 06/08/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 7 22:10:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072150Z - 072315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional instances of severe hail and wind are possible with the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated enough such that a WW issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells have developed over the past hour across the TX Trans Pecos region. A mid-level shortwave trough and associated 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates continue to overspread upper 50s/low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in increasing buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer ascent to support the continued intensification of storms. Modest mid-level flow is also overspreading southwestern Texas, resulting in lengthy hodographs and accompanying 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. Large hail may accompany the stronger storms, with severe gusts also possible (given the well-mixed boundary layer and 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates). However, the overall severe threat should remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 30250461 31060520 31520556 31900493 32030393 32000250 31530176 30970141 30410157 30080230 29910382 30250461 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS OF THE CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with wind and hail remain possible in several areas of the country this afternoon and evening: the southern High Plains, the South Carolina vicinity, south to east Florida, the interior Northwest, and the eastern Dakotas. ...20Z Update... Some minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm lines across NC/VA, but severe probabilities remain unchanged. The potential for a supercell or two late this afternoon into this evening remains evident across the TX Trans Pecos, with generally more disorganized threats scattered elsewhere across the CONUS. For more information regarding the short-term threats, see MCD 945 across Florida, MCD 946 across South Carolina, and MCD 947 across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 06/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... A southern-stream upper jet will gradually expand east across much of northern Mexico. Within the left-exit region of this jet, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos and eastern NM. Proximity of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will yield weak deep-layer shear north of the Trans-Pecos, with the latter seeing strengthening flow during the late afternoon into the evening. Here, a couple supercells should form with a primary threat of isolated large hail before clustering towards the Rio Grande. Farther north, loosely organized multicell clusters should dominate with sporadic occurrences of severe hail and wind possible through early tonight. ...Southeast... Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be commencing across the south to eastern FL peninsula, with additional storms likely to form later this afternoon near a southward-sagging cold front in the SC vicinity. Belts of 30-40 kt west-southwesterlies will persist across central to south FL ahead of a low-amplitude trough over the east-central Gulf and along the frontal zone to the south of the amplified trough across the Northeast. While low-level flow will be weak over FL and predominately westerly over the SC vicinity, adequate effective bulk shear will exist for transient supercell and multicell structures capable of isolated damaging winds and lower-end severe hail. ...Northeast CA to southwest MT... A weakening upper low will drift northeast from southeast CA into southern NV. This will result in gradual decay of the mid-level wind field. However, adequate speed shear from the mid to upper levels should still support semi-organized multicell clustering later this afternoon, mainly across southern to eastern OR and the southern half of ID. Similar to yesterday, isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, with small to marginally severe hail also possible. ...Eastern Dakotas... A mid to upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the central Dakotas. A pocket of moderate buoyancy should develop across a portion of the eastern Dakotas where boundary-layer dewpoints can hold from 60-64 F. While deep-layer flow will remain weak, directional change with height from light low-level south-southeasterlies to weak mid-level northerlies may yield a strip of 15-20 kt effective bulk shear. A few marginally severe wind and hail events from pulse to weakly organized multicells remain possible during the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes; localized fire-weather conditions will remain possible across the Great Lakes D2/Thursday, but noticeably weaker winds should be less favorable for widespread fire concerns. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to slowly sag southward along the East Coast while weak, cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the western U.S. tomorrow/Thursday. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the central and eastern CONUS. Dry low-level air will continue to drift southward from the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Carolina Piedmont during the afternoon. At the moment, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be weak, with fire weather highlights withheld this outlook. Likewise, seasonably dry low-level air will meander across the Southwest, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 6 22:12:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023 Areas affected...South Carolina into extreme eastern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062155Z - 062330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms through the evening, with a gradual weakening trend likely after sunset. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across SC over the past hour or so, with MRMS mosaic radar data indicating 30 dBZ echo tops exceeding 45 kft and MESH showing hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. Shear across the region is poor, though mid 60s F surface dewpoints amid 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis) is contributing to 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. The stronger pulse storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps an instance of severe hail. After sunset, nocturnal cooling should result in waning storm intensity. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated at best and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34748269 34898170 34657984 34297932 33667940 33027969 32658011 32368066 32208104 32258139 32928248 33738287 34748269 Read more

MD 0943 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and northern New Mexico...far southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062031Z - 062230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across portions of far eastern Arizona and New Mexico. A few of these storms have produced nickel to quarter size hail across eastern Arizona and northeastern New Mexico. Surface objective analysis indicates daytime heating yielding around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE atop steep lapse rates through the profile. Increasing southerly flow from a mid-level jet max across Arizona has led to around 20 kts of shear, which is largely speed shear as winds are uniform in direction with height. This environment will favor multi-cell clusters, a few of which may produce instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Weak shear for organization is expected to keep coverage of this threat too localized to warrant watch issuance. ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 35810577 36370543 36680528 37120485 37260471 37420443 37570405 37430317 37090314 35790322 35220332 33780435 33370443 32750495 32720496 32490615 32630654 33070726 33620774 33750811 33970856 34320870 34610885 35010888 35310879 35480871 35320801 35340698 35810577 Read more