Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Lower Colorado River Basin... The Elevated area was expanded westward where stronger surface winds and lower afternoon RH should overlap with pockets of better fuels in the lower deserts D2/Monday afternoon. Elevated meteorological conditions will also be possible across portions of northern AZ into the southern Great Basin, but area fuels remain mostly unfavorable for more widespread fire-weather concerns. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the Northeast while a second mid-level trough impinges on the Southwest States tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure will continue across the Great Lakes area, fostering dry northeasterly flow amid curing fuels (given the lack of recent or forecast appreciable rainfall). However, the lack of stronger surface wind speeds suggests that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks pending stronger surface winds via guidance consensus. Across the lower Colorado River Basin, 15+ mph sustained southerly winds amid 15 percent RH are likely by afternoon peak heating, driven by a mixing boundary layer and the approach of the upper trough. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned favorable surface winds/RH will overlap with dry fuels supporting wildfire spread. Like Day 1, dry conditions will also exist across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest (to the lee of the Cascades), where fuels continue to cure. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Lower Colorado River Basin... The Elevated area was expanded westward where stronger surface winds and lower afternoon RH should overlap with pockets of better fuels in the lower deserts D2/Monday afternoon. Elevated meteorological conditions will also be possible across portions of northern AZ into the southern Great Basin, but area fuels remain mostly unfavorable for more widespread fire-weather concerns. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the Northeast while a second mid-level trough impinges on the Southwest States tomorrow/Monday. Surface high pressure will continue across the Great Lakes area, fostering dry northeasterly flow amid curing fuels (given the lack of recent or forecast appreciable rainfall). However, the lack of stronger surface wind speeds suggests that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks pending stronger surface winds via guidance consensus. Across the lower Colorado River Basin, 15+ mph sustained southerly winds amid 15 percent RH are likely by afternoon peak heating, driven by a mixing boundary layer and the approach of the upper trough. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned favorable surface winds/RH will overlap with dry fuels supporting wildfire spread. Like Day 1, dry conditions will also exist across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest (to the lee of the Cascades), where fuels continue to cure. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across western portions of Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Both occasional damaging winds and hail appear possible. ...Synopsis... An expansive anticyclone is forecast to remain centered near the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border throughout the day Monday, with its influence stretching through the Upper Midwest into the northern and central Plains. Upper troughing is anticipated east of this anticyclone, extending from Quebec through the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. A shortwave trough is expected to move through this troughing, from the Lower Great Lakes region across the Mid/Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. A pair of upper lows are anticipated west of the anticyclone, one over British Columbia and the other just off the southern CA Coast. The surface pattern will likely be void of any well-defined features, with generally modest winds across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception in across the High Plains in the vicinity of the lee trough. Somewhat stronger flow is possible from southern CA into NV and western AZ. Low-level moisture will remain within the southern and western periphery of the surface ridging, i.e. from the Southeast across the Lower MS Valley and into the southern and central Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening in these areas, but weak shear should foster a mainly multicellular mode across the majority of the region, limiting the severe potential. ...Carolinas and Northeast GA... The best overlap between buoyancy, moderate flow aloft, and forcing for ascent is anticipated from the western Carolinas into northeast GA, ahead of the subtle shortwave trough. A mix of multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two appears possible, with a corresponding risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. This activity should generally spread southeastward through early Monday evening before weakening. ...Central ID into western MT... With the region oriented between the anticyclone to its east and upper troughing across British Columbia, slightly stronger mid-level flow is anticipated from central/eastern ID into western MT on Monday. Modest buoyancy is anticipated as well, with afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected. Given the slightly stronger mid-level flow, potential exists for a strong storm or two. However, the overall severe threat will be mitigated by the limited buoyancy. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... High-based thunderstorms will likely move westward across the region throughout the afternoon and evening, fostered by increased mid-level moisture and orographically enhanced ascent. Shear will be weak, but the high-based character of these storms amid the well-mixed boundary layer may result in a few strong downbursts, particularly over lower elevations. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 3 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 3 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... A swath of severe wind gusts may occur between about 8 PM to Midnight CDT along a portion of the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Otherwise, isolated severe thunderstorms with wind and hail will be possible across parts of the south-central and northeastern states, mainly through this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Far eastern NM to South TX... Thunderstorm initiation has already occurred across the higher terrain, with deepening cumulus along the lee trough as well. Expectation is for these storms to move eastward over time, posing a threat for isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few instances of hail. Cumulus is deepening just south of SJT as well, along a remnant outflow boundary. Continued development is anticipated, with scattered thunderstorm coverage likely by the late afternoon. Shear is limited, but strong buoyancy is in place, supporting the potential for robust updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Conditional scenario outlined in the previous discussion still appears plausible this evening and overnight, with recent CAM solutions contributing to its validity. Expectation is for persistent development over the higher terrain of Coahuila to eventually move eastward as an MCS. This supports continuing the 15% wind across the RGV. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians/Upper OH Valley... Thunderstorms initiated a few hours ago along a southward/southwestward progressing cold front moving through central PA. A few stronger storms are possible within the eastern periphery of this region, particularly eastern PA, where slightly stronger flow overlays the unstable airmass. Mesoanalysis indicates effective shear of 30-40 kt across this region. Flow weakens with westward extent and storms will tend to be more disorganized within this weakly sheared environment. Even so, sufficient buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates may support localized downbursts and small to briefly severe hail. ...Arklatex to Southern LA... As mentioned in MCD #931, a Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds remains through the afternoon from the Arklatex into southern LA. Moderate buoyancy is in place, but weak shear should limit storm organization and strength. Isolated gusty winds and hail are the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023/ ...Far eastern NM to south TX... An elongated, low-amplitude upper trough will stay anchored from the Great Basin to the southern High Plains through tonight. The attendant belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will largely remain confined across northern Mexico into Deep South TX. Several areas of isolated to scattered thunderstorm development are expected later this afternoon into the evening: 1) the higher terrain of northern Coahuila into perhaps the Big Bend, 2) a remnant outflow boundary over the Concho Valley, and 3) the far eastern NM/west TX border area from the Raton Mesa to the Permian Basin. Areas to the north of south TX will be in a more modest deep-layer shear environment with effective values around 20-30 kt. This should generally support weak and transient mid-level updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Owing to continued steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with overall coverage expected to remain isolated. A relatively greater but largely conditional severe threat may occur over a portion of the Rio Grande Valley in south TX later this evening if supercell clusters over Coahuila can develop an adequate cold pool prior to the nocturnal increase in MLCIN. The 14Z HRRR is the most insistent of morning CAMs with its depiction of an MCS moving east of the international border. Guidance is fairly consistent that negative low-level theta-e advection will shift west from the northwest Gulf across Deep South TX tonight, likely yielding weakening of convection as it spreads farther east of the Rio Grande. ...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians/Upper OH Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along a west to southwest-moving cold front, with initial development expected in PA based on a swelling cu field already. A pocket of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will similarly form just ahead of this portion of the front. Guidance suggests there may be a belt of somewhat greater north-northeasterly mid-level winds in the eastern PA vicinity. But the lack of a 12Z ALB observed sounding or VWP data high enough to sample this lowers overall confidence. CAM guidance does suggest that a couple of southwest-moving cells that initiate in this region may contain mid-level updraft rotation which could result in a meso-beta corridor of relatively greater hail and wind potential. Elsewhere, weaker deep-layer shear and buoyancy will serve to limit potential to locally strong gusts from sporadic microbursts amid steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively deep mixed boundary layer. ...Ark-La-Tex to south LA... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon within a moderately buoyant and weakly sheared environment. The strongest storms will be capable of locally strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... A few hours of modestly dry and breezy conditions may develop D2/Sunday afternoon in the wake of a backdoor cold front moving through portions of the Midwest. Area forecast soundings show surface winds of 10-15 mph may briefly overlap with afternoon RH values below 35% across portions of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes. Despite relatively dry conditions over the preceding days, area fuels remain largely unreceptive to fire spread. While some drying of area fuels will likely occur, the lack of more robust fuels suggests widespread fire-weather concerns are low. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... A benign upper pattern will remain in place across the CONUS tomorrow, with moist low-level conditions and weak surface winds limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across most the CONUS. Seasonably dry low-level air will continue to meander over the Southwest, but wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, given weak surface winds. The latest guidance consensus also depicts some overlap of dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of Pennsylvania toward Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley. However, modest surface winds and fuel receptiveness suggest wildfire-spread potential should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 2 22:16:08 UTC 2023.

WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0255 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 255 TORNADO TX 022155Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop east-southeastward this evening towards/across the Edward Plateau vicinity, with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two all possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Junction TX to 35 miles east southeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253...WW 254... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/02/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-022240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-103-105-115-135-165-173-227-235-317-329-335-371-383- 415-431-443-461-475-495-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL PECOS REAGAN SCURRY STERLING TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 254 TORNADO NM TX 021655Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell development is underway near Fort Stockton. Slow-moving, splitting supercells that may be long-lived are expected across the Lower Pecos Valley. A few additional supercells may form farther north in the Permian Basin. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Midland TX to 55 miles south southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC041-022240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROOSEVELT TXC045-075-079-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-179-191-211-219-263- 269-295-303-305-345-357-359-393-433-445-483-501-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALL HEMPHILL HOCKLEY KENT KING LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OCHILTREE OLDHAM ROBERTS STONEWALL TERRY WHEELER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 253 TORNADO NM TX 021625Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico Northwest Texas * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell clusters are forming along the southeast New Mexico border with the Texas South Plains. These will become more widespread through the afternoon, with the best chance for semi-discrete storms with southern extent in northwest Texas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Childress TX to 40 miles southwest of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive baseball to softball sized hail, and scattered severe wind gusts to around 75 mph will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern High Plains... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. Higher thunderstorm coverage across and more linear storm structure has materialized across the western TX Panhandle, with more discrete activity farther south across far southeast NM into west TX. A tornado has been reported with the supercells in Gaines and Pecos Counties in Texas, with large hail reported in these storms as well as the other more discrete storms across the region. A trend towards additional upscale growth is anticipated with this more discrete activity entering the TX South Plains. All severe hazards are possible before this transition occurs, with the primary threat then becoming damaging gusts. There is also some potential for the lone storm in Pecos county to eventually trend more linear and progress southeastward. Additional storm development is ongoing back farther west over the higher terrain, with at least some potential for additional hail and a strong gusts or two as it gradually moves eastward this afternoon and evening. ...Eastern MT... Recently issued MCD #922 addresses this region, where a marginal wind and hail threat is expected through the afternoon and early evening. Overall, the weak mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing for ascent (mainly terrain driven) will keep the threat localized. ...New England... As discussed in MCD #919, thunderstorms with marginal severe wind threat are possible through the afternoon. 18Z GYX sounding sampled modest buoyancy, but relatively high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could still contribute to occasional damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Large-scale ascent is already underway ahead of a shortwave trough over NM that will slowly shift into west TX through tonight. Stratus is fairly pervasive across most of west TX, outside of the Permian Basin. In this latter area, with mid 60s surface dew points and a pocket of nearly full insolation, convection will likely develop in the next couple hours. With around 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and an elongated nearly straight-line hodograph, splitting discrete supercells are expected with very large to giant hail possible. A couple long-lived supercells may occur as they slowly move southeast along the Lower Pecos Valley through early evening. More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected farther north, initially beginning in southeast NM and then spreading into the South Plains and southern TX Panhandle areas. Relatively larger low-level SRH compared to farther south should support potential for at least a couple tornadoes in addition to significant severe hail, centered on the late afternoon period. Amalgamation of numerous cells should result in upscale growth into an MCS by early evening with a threat for localized significant severe wind gusts. Overall severe threat should wane after sunset into late evening as the MCS spreads deeper into southwest OK through the Big Country. ...Central High Plains to eastern MT... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a lee trough later this afternoon in the presence of generally 50s surface dew points. Convection will probably tend to focus near a pair of slow-moving mid-level impulses across eastern CO and eastern MT. For the eastern MT regime in the mid-levels, lapse rates will be weak but compensated by a belt of 25-30 kt southeasterlies. This may be adequate to support transient weak supercell structures. In the eastern CO regime, steep mid-level lapse rates will counter weaknesses in the low to mid-level hodograph. Isolated severe hail and wind will be possible, centered on the late afternoon to early evening. ...New England... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected downstream of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching from Quebec. Nearly all enhancement to mid/upper flow will be confined to the cool side of a surface cold front pushing south-southwest. 12Z GYX sounding revealed very light winds throughout the troposphere. As such, single-digit effective bulk shear is anticipated across most of the region, with values perhaps into the teens closer to the front. Well-mixed and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles should support locally strong wind gusts in sporadic microbursts during the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The probability of widespread fire-weather conditions is low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A benign upper pattern will prevail over the U.S. tomorrow/Saturday, promoting relatively weak surface winds across the CONUS. Rich low-level moisture will accompany the weaker surface winds, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential in most locales. Dry air will meander across the lower Colorado River Basin, but the weaker surface winds suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0252 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 252 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 012100Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify through late afternoon, especially near a boundary across the region where the air mass is very moist and unstable. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Hobbs NM to 85 miles east northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0915 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OK...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AND FAR NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Areas affected...Parts of western OK...far south-central KS...and far northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012036Z - 012230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts will be possible this afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms are evolving over western Oklahoma this afternoon -- along the eastern edge of outflow from earlier convection over the TX Panhandle. Downstream, efficient diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 60s surface dewpoints) is destabilizing inflow for this activity. While VWP data shows generally weak midlevel flow over the area, a veering low/midlevel winds profile combined with the destabilizing air mass could support a few loosely organized updrafts capable of sporadic marginally severe hail and strong to locally severe gusts this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain too isolated for a watch. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT... LAT...LON 33939975 34319968 34939946 36089931 37139921 37299884 37269841 36979818 36439808 35609810 34669827 33769846 33429867 33379914 33449937 33629958 33939975 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail along with a severe wind/tornado risk will remain focused across far eastern New Mexico and west Texas late this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the severe probabilities across the southern High Plains, based on recent observational trends regarding the position of an outflow boundary and the movement of a small semi-organized storm cluster across parts of the TX South Plains. Some threat for localized severe hail/wind cannot be ruled out with the ongoing storm cluster as it moves eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, with some modest destabilization noted downstream. Along the trailing outflow, at least isolated development will be possible, given that some recovery is occurring in the wake of earlier convection. Any supercell that can move east-southeastward along the outflow later this afternoon and evening would pose a conditional risk for all severe hazards. Elsewhere, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 06/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023/ ...Southern High Plains including Eastern NM/West TX... Key mesoscale factors for severe-weather potential later today are a composite outflow boundary and zone of differential heating/baroclinicity that extends roughly west-east across southeast New Mexico and the Texas South Plains. Convection continues to redevelop into midday and reinforce the aggregate/primary boundary across the aforementioned corridor, casting uncertainty/doubts on more northward-aggressive (with respect to boundary/destabilization) guidance such as the 12z NAM. Regardless, satellite/surface observations and related trends imply that ample heating will occur to the west/south of this boundary within an air mass that continues to remain rather moist (upper-end of daily climatological values). The strongest destabilization is expected to occur across the Texas South Plains and far southeast New Mexico, which is where severe potential later today is expected to be maximized in vicinity of the modifying outflow boundary. Owing to moderately strong mid-level southwesterly winds (and considerably stronger high-level winds), wind profiles will be supportive of initial supercells capable of large hail. At least some tornado potential will be semi-focused in vicinity of the modifying boundary, although low-level winds are not expected to be overly strong, which should tend to limit the overall tornado likelihood and risk magnitude. Storms may again cluster with a somewhat localized but increasing potential for severe-caliber winds by early evening, potentially toward parts of the Texas Low Rolling Plains. Farther to the northwest, somewhat more modest, but potentially severe-conducive, destabilization is expected as far northwest as east-central/northeast New Mexico, with isolated instances of severe hail as the most probable hazard this afternoon and early evening. ...North-central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, near the dryline/lee trough, from near I-80 northward over the Nebraska Panhandle and eastern Wyoming toward the Black Hills vicinity. This activity may be associated with a corridor of relatively maximized large-scale ascent aloft, ahead of a minor shortwave trough ejecting northward out of northern Colorado. Although mid/upper-level lapse rates will be seasonally modest over this region, surface dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s F may support pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level/deep-layer shear are forecast, but isolated instances of severe hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts are possible. Read more