Severe Storms

MD 1002 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO and northeastern NM Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276... Valid 122053Z - 122230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts will remain possible with thunderstorms spreading eastward this afternoon/early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed this afternoon across eastern CO and northeastern NM in a modest low-level upslope flow regime. Even though instability remains fairly limited, deep-layer shear of 40+ kt will remain favorable for updraft organization, including isolated supercells. Large hail will remain the primary severe threat with the more discrete convection across northeastern NM in the short term. Thunderstorms across eastern CO have recently congealed into a small cluster, which may pose more of a strong to locally severe wind threat as it develops eastward. The eastern extent of appreciable severe potential should be constrained by persistent cloud cover across the western OK/TX Panhandles and western KS. ..Gleason.. 06/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35410485 36010439 36590438 38200486 38970426 39310360 39220231 38350221 37210246 36950290 35360315 35240403 35410485 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon/evening across central Texas. Damaging winds and/or large hail will also be possible from the southern High Plains to the Gulf Coast, and across the Mid-Atlantic. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. Severe storms have formed relatively early over northern Louisiana, and from the Front Range into northeast New Mexico. Continued heating/destabilization and lengthening hodographs will favor cells capable of large hail. The most favorable area of severe storms including very large/damaging hail will be later today over central Texas. Here, visible imagery show continued growth of cumulus fields, which are situated both near an east-west outflow boundary and on the nose of the low-level lapse rate plume emanating out of southwest Texas. This area should favor at least isolated supercells by late afternoon. ..Jewell.. 06/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023/ ...TX area this afternoon through tonight... A front has stalled across central TX, and the cool air north of the front is being reinforced by elevated convection near the Red River. Visible satellite imagery suggest that strong surface heating will continue into the afternoon farther south from the Edwards Plateau into central TX, where a belt of low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints will coincide with the surface front. A warm elevated mixed layer and cap currently reside over this area, but warming temperatures into the 90s will reduce convective inhibition in a small area by mid-late afternoon between SJT-ABI-BWD. Thunderstorm development becomes probable by 21-23z in this zone, where MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates, and unusually long hodographs/strong vertical shear will all favor intense supercells. Storm splits will be possible initially with somewhat straight hodographs, and these storms will be capable of producing very large hail of 3-4 inches in diameter. There will be a narrow window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes with any supercell that can move along the zone of the mid 70s dewpoints and stronger low-level shear/larger hodograph curvature along the stalled front. There will be the potential for some storm clustering this evening, with continued large hail and damaging-wind threats. There will be some potential for occasional large hail with elevated storms through this evening in the zone of warm advection across north TX to the Red River. However, elevated storm development appears more probable overnight from north TX/southern OK to the Arklatex and northern LA, with profiles favorable for elevated supercells with large hail. ..LA to the FL Panhandle/south GA this afternoon/evening... Some convection is ongoing across north FL and could continue southeastward as the low levels warm/destabilize south of the anvil shading. Farther west and north, surface heating is underway in advance of a cold front from central GA westward across southern AL/MS into LA near I-20. The combination of weak convergence/ascent along the front, as well as along the sea breeze, will support scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Seasonably large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) and somewhat stronger-than-normal westerly flow aloft and resultant vertical shear will support the potential for multiple storm clusters and a few supercells capable of producing damaging outflow winds and large hail for several hours this afternoon/evening. ...Southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon/evening... Moist upslope flow persists from northeast NM into southeast CO, and convection has been persistent across this area since last night (in the zone of ascent downstream from an embedded speed max over NM). Clouds will tend to slow surface heating, but relatively rich moisture into the higher terrain and robust west-southwesterly flow aloft will support a few supercells with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter this afternoon through this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to NC this afternoon... A closed midlevel low persists over the Great Lakes, and to its south and southwest, a relatively strong subtropical branch of the westerlies extends from the southern Rockies to the northern Gulf Coast states. In association with an embedded shortwave trough rotating around the southeast periphery of the Great Lakes low, a surface cyclone will pivot northward across western PA/NY and occlude over southwest ON. A trailing cold front will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through late evening, providing a focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Surface heating east of the thicker clouds over VA/MD and a modest increase in midlevel flow will support the potential for a few storms with damaging outflow gusts this afternoon from southern NJ/southeastern PA to eastern NC. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Only minor changes were made with this update based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0259 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will linger across southern New Mexico on Tuesday with a broad surface low across West Texas. Deep mixing will bring some of this stronger flow to the surface and the tightening pressure gradient will also enhance the low-level flow. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected amid single digit relative humidity. ERC values are in the 90th percentile in this region and several days of elevated/critical fire weather conditions have further cured fuels in the area. In addition, poor overnight recoveries in the region (15 to 20 percent relative humidity) on Monday night will also aid in fuel receptiveness on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected throughout the period Tuesday, from parts of the southern Plains eastward across the Southeast. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move slowly eastward across the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, contributing to height falls along the East Coast. Meanwhile, a weak upper ridge will exist over the Southwest, with a belt of strong mid to upper level westerlies from the southern Plains into the Southeast. At the surface, 60+ dewpoints will remain roughly from TX/OK eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with 70+ dewpoints from TX eastward across the northern Gulf Coast and FL. Drier air will exist across much of the MO/Upper MS/OH Valleys owing the cooling influence of the upper low. However, weak low pressure is expected over Lower MI, with at least weak instability developing in that region. Otherwise, a mean surface boundary will extend roughly from northern TX eastward to GA/SC, reinforced by bouts of convection and outflow. This general zone, beneath the favorably strong westerlies aloft, will be the primary focus for severe storms throughout the period on Tuesday. ...TX eastward into GA/SC... Clusters of storms are expected throughout the period, and the influence of antecedent convection will have an impact on where the greatest threat corridors develop. At this time, it appears that storms will be ongoing from parts of MS, AL into GA and eventually SC during the day, with one or more clusters possible. Heating of a moist air mass will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in spots, with deep-layer effective shear around 50 kt. This will favor large hail and swaths of damaging wind, perhaps very large hail. The proportion of supercells may depend on whether outflow scour much of the warm sector. To the west, large-scale lift may be reduced in the wake of the systems passing to the east, with midlevel subsidence found in some forecast soundings. However, very strong instability will remain in place from TX into the lower MS Valley, and strong heating and convergence along any residual boundaries will provide a focus for storms during the afternoon. Very large hail may occur along with locally damaging gusts, from northeast TX into northern LA. Although locally higher-end hail potential will exist, predictability is a bit low to provide higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles... Residual moisture, surface heating and the influence of a low-amplitude wave will lead to storms forming over southeast CO and northeast NM during the afternoon. Strong high-level flow atop weak southerly winds will lead to cells moving in a southeastward direction, producing hail and locally gusty winds. These storms will likely encounter increased CIN from western OK into northwest TX, with lessening threat there overnight. ...Central IN into western OH... Westerly surface winds and heating will lead to a narrow plume of steeper low-level lapse rates from IL into southern IN and OH, with temperatures in the 70s F. Dewpoints will generally be in the 40s to near 50 F, and this may contribute to weak instability during the peak heating hours. The combination of mixing of 30 kt flow at 850 mb and increasing precipitation during the afternoon could lead to gusty winds. At this time, the threat for severe does not appear high enough to introduce low wind probabilities. Any cellular convection could result in small/sub-severe hail as well. ..Jewell.. 06/12/2023 Read more

MD 0979 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0979 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of north-central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 112217Z - 112315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase across portions of north-central Mississippi this evening. Damaging gusts and hail will be possible, and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A couple of isolated supercells likely producing large hail across east-central AR will continue shifting east/southeast toward north-central MS the next couple of hours. The downstream environment is characterized by strong instability amid effective bulk shear values around 35-40 kt. This should support continuation of these cells, with additional activity expected to develop/shift southeast from northern MS this evening. Initially, large hail and gusts to 60 mph will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds over the next couple of hours. A modestly low-level jet (around 25-30 kt) is forecast to increase this evening and some upscale development into bowing segments is possible. If this evolution occurs, potential for swaths of damaging gusts will increase. Given the overall environment, and trends in HRRR/RRFS guidance, a severe thunderstorm watch likely will be needed in the next hour or so for portions of north-central MS. ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34209091 34119040 33888950 33658894 33188849 32728873 32548903 32588976 32689019 32939081 33149107 33469128 33709132 34079121 34209091 Read more

MD 0978 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 0978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267... Valid 112206Z - 112330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat, which is primarily large to very large hail, will persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Strengthening low-level upslope flow (1km deep per PUX VWP) has led to the development of numerous thunderstorms along the Colorado Front Range. The strongest of these is a supercell which has taken a right turn across Las Animas county. Most CAM guidance indicated only one or two strong storms may materialize, but that they could persist well into the evening and eventually move into the TX/OK Panhandle. Current observations would support this solution as additional strong cells have not developed yet and the environment remains favorable (1000+ MLCAPE and 40 knots of effective shear) ahead of the ongoing strong supercell. Hail up to 2 inches has already been reported in Las Animas county with similar peak hail size expected for the duration of the supercell lifecycle as it moves southeast this evening. Will not rule out additional strong supercell development this evening, but expect the primary threat will be associated with the ongoing strong supercell in Las Animas county. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36250539 37400514 38150415 38070235 37050186 36170208 36080334 36250539 Read more

MD 0977 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265...266... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...NORTHERN MS...WESTERN TO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0977 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...northern MS...western to Middle TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...266... Valid 112143Z - 112315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265, 266 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for damaging gusts and large hail is expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours from parts of eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi into western and Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Mostly discrete cellular convection will continue to shift east the next few hours. Recent radar trends have shown increasing intensity in this activity, especially over eastern AR and western TN, with more modest intensification toward Middle TN. These storms will continue to shift into moderate to strong instability over the next few hours. Steep to very steep low-level lapse rates are in place downstream of this ongoing activity with MLCAPE values ranging from 1500 J/kg across Middle TN to 3000 J/kg further west. Vertical shear remains favorable for organized convection, though is somewhat lower over Middle TN and becomes stronger with western extent into northern MS. VWP data from NQA also shows a bit more elongated hodographs compared to the hodograph at OHX as well, suggesting some better potential for large hail. Overall this environment should support increasing potential for large hail and damaging gusts over the next couple hours. With time, potential exists for some upscale development into bowing clusters via storm interactions and consolidating outflows. ..Leitman.. 06/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 36498615 36388590 36188577 35948580 35548612 35128720 34508881 34118979 34059091 34119137 34289167 34539172 34879151 35219096 35578989 36048814 36528679 36528655 36498615 Read more

WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0269 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 269 SEVERE TSTM TX 112140Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening along a weak boundary from near Abilene to near Dallas. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Abilene TX to 40 miles south southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265...WW 266...WW 267...WW 268... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HOP TO 15 NW HOP TO 25 ESE OWB TO 25 ESE OWB. ..SUPINIE..06/11/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-021-029-031-045-047-049-053-057-061-067-073- 079-085-087-093-099-111-113-123-137-141-151-155-167-169-171-179- 207-209-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-239-112240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BOYLE BULLITT BUTLER CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART JEFFERSON JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE NELSON RUSSELL SCOTT SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WOODFORD TNC003-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-055-061-081-083-085- 087-099-101-111-117-119-125-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165- Read more

WW 265 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 111925Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon along and just southeast of a cold front, and the storms will spread eastward/southeastward through late evening. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the main concern, though isolated large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter and an isolated tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles east of Bowling Green KY to 55 miles southwest of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0976 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0976 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Trans Pecos Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112137Z - 112300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts possible through the evening across the Trans Pecos. DISCUSSION...A cluster of updrafts have developed south of Fort Stockton along a sharp dryline. Updrafts have yet to consolidate, but are expected to eventually consolidate and organize into a strong supercell given a downstream environment of 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support robust updrafts capable of some very large (2+") hail. Long/straight hodographs could favor some splitting supercells, especially early in the life cycle. Most guidance suggests storm coverage should remain isolated in this region. However, current radar/satellite trends suggest storm coverage may be higher than initially thought. At this time, the expectation for an isolated severe threat precludes the need for a watch, but if more scattered storm development appears imminent, a watch may need to be considered. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29550272 30250290 30780287 31440263 31540140 31490062 30920029 30030064 29450101 29260120 29390146 29540177 29570227 29550272 Read more

WW 0267 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 267 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/11/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 267 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-025-031-035-039-041-055-071-089-101-119- 112240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PUEBLO TELLER NMC007-059-112240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX UNION OKC025-112240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 267 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 112015Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Front Range into southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forming over the high terrain from Colorado into extreme northeast New Mexico, and storms will spread generally eastward through late evening. The storm environment will support the potential for supercells with large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, along with isolated severe outflow gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Colorado Springs CO to 25 miles southwest of Clayton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265...WW 266... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/11/23 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-119-121-125-129-131-133-147-153-165- 173-175-189-193-197-199-203-231-235-237-112240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-067-129-151-173-112240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE HANCOCK MORGAN SCOTT UNION Read more

WW 268 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 112035Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme western Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward into eastern Kentucky/northeast Tennessee through the afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Jackson KY to 75 miles south of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265...WW 266...WW 267... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0266 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 266 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/11/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-021-023-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075- 077-085-089-093-095-107-111-117-121-123-129-135-137-141-145-147- 112240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LEE LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-112240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 266 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 111945Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and eastern Arkansas The Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northern Arkansas into western Tennessee this afternoon, and storms will spread east-southeastward through late evening. The storm environment favors a mix of multicell clusters/line segments and the potential for a couple of supercells. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1.5-2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest storms, and an isolated tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Jackson TN to 35 miles southwest of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0975 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR BIG COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...Big Country into north Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112102Z - 112300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with gusty winds and large hail possible through the afternoon. This area is being monitored for watch potential in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 90s across portions of central Texas with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This has yielded MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. In the last hour, thunderstorms have begun to develop, with cumulus increasing near Abilene. In addition, surface winds indicate a convergence zone across Central Texas. Timing of development further east into the Metroplex is less certain. Cu in this region shows little vertical extent as of 20:45z. However, given strong buoyancy initiation could occur before CAM guidance window of 22-00z. Storm mode will favor clustered supercells with potential for large hail and damaging winds (occasional splits given straight, elongated hodographs). Given uncertainty on timing of initiation, trends within this area are being monitored for a watch. ..Thornton/Thornton.. 06/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31800025 32180013 32479981 32889904 33219822 33309722 33209620 32759568 32469559 32059564 31819578 31569620 31659799 31479859 31369906 31309947 31319973 31420008 31800025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS INTO NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected across a broad portion of the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the south-central High Plains and North Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Mid-South/TN Valley... Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase this afternoon across the region as ascent from the approaching shortwave trough interacts with the moist and buoyant air mass in place. Effective bulk shear around 30-35 kt will support a mix of multicell clusters/line segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Additional information about this region is available in recently issued MCD #974. ...CO Front Range into the TX Panhandle... Cumulus continues to build across the higher elevations of north-central NM and south-central CO, with a few thunderstorms already in place. The expectation outlined in the previous discussion remains valid, with thunderstorms coming off the terrain into post-frontal upslope environment across the lower elevations. As mentioned in MCD #973, this environment will support high-based supercells with the potential for large hail (with instances near 2 inches) and damaging winds. Weak low-level shear will limit tornado potential but any discrete supercells that become established could pose risk of a tornado as they track eastward into the better air mass across far eastern Colorado/Oklahoma Panhandle. ...TX Big Country into North TX... Thunderstorm development is still expected later this afternoon/early evening in the corridor from SJT northeastward into the Young/Stephens/Eastland county vicinity. Robust buoyancy and shear will support the potential for splitting supercells capable of very large hail and strong downbursts. ...Great Basin... A few strong gusts remain possible across the Great Basin as clusters of high-based thunderstorms move northwestward this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier.. 06/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023/ ...Mid-South/TN Valley region through tonight... Around the southern periphery of a closed midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, embedded shortwave troughs will move eastward over the lower OH and TN Valleys through early tonight. An associated surface cyclone will likewise develop eastward along and just north of the OH River, as a trailing pre-frontal trough and cold front move southeastward across the Mid-South and southern Plains through tonight. Clouds are fairly widespread as of late morning from the southern Appalachians northward into the OH Valley and westward into the mid MS Valley. A little south of the thicker clouds and surface cyclone track, there is a corridor of stronger surface heating from south central KY into the Mid-South, where temperatures will warm into the 80s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints. These surface conditions beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will drive MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon in the zone of weak low-level confluence/convergence associated with an embedded midlevel speed max, along the edge of the thicker clouds from central KY into western TN and AR. The moderate-strong buoyancy and midlevel flow near 40 kt will support a mix of multicell clusters/line segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. There will be somewhat stronger deep-layer flow/shear and a little greater potential for supercells across the Mid-South later this afternoon/evening. The convection will continue to spread eastward and southeastward across the TN Valley early tonight, with some continued damaging-wind threat. Other scattered thunderstorms could form this afternoon/evening to the west of the thicker clouds across the southern Appalachians. The stronger wind profiles/vertical shear will be west and north of this area through the afternoon, so the primary severe threats will be damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail this afternoon/evening. Uncertainty increases with eastward extent due to the widespread clouds/rain from northeast GA into western NC and vicinity, and the primary increase in flow/shear will tend to occur after the muted diurnal cycle. ...Southern High Plains through tonight... Post-frontal, upslope flow is established this morning from eastern CO into northeast NM. Though not particularly large, buoyancy will be sufficient for supercells forming and moving eastward off the Raton Mesa, given easterly low-level inflow and relatively long hodographs. Large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the primary severe threats, though an isolated tornado could also occur. Convection will likely persist into the overnight hours, immediately downstream from an embedded mid-upper speed max that will move east-northeastward from AZ to NM. Storm development is much less certain farther south into northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/South Plains. If a storm were to form along the stalled front this afternoon, it would potentially become supercellular with a conditional large hail threat. ...North TX late this afternoon into early tonight... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a pre-frontal trough and weak cold front that are moving slowly southward across OK. As surface temperatures warm well into the 90s, convective inhibition will diminish and MLCAPE will increase to 3000-4000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain rather weak, but deep-layer flow will be strong enough to support the potential for a few splitting supercells (given relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt). Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and damaging gusts will be the main threat with these storms from late afternoon into early tonight. ...Great Basin this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will rotate northward around the eastern periphery of the midlevel low over southern CA. The ascent attendant to the speed maxima, in concert with daytime heating, will support clusters of high-based storms capable of producing a few strong-severe outflow gusts. Read more