Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS INTO NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected across a broad portion of the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the south-central High Plains and North Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Mid-South/TN Valley... Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase this afternoon across the region as ascent from the approaching shortwave trough interacts with the moist and buoyant air mass in place. Effective bulk shear around 30-35 kt will support a mix of multicell clusters/line segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Additional information about this region is available in recently issued MCD #974. ...CO Front Range into the TX Panhandle... Cumulus continues to build across the higher elevations of north-central NM and south-central CO, with a few thunderstorms already in place. The expectation outlined in the previous discussion remains valid, with thunderstorms coming off the terrain into post-frontal upslope environment across the lower elevations. As mentioned in MCD #973, this environment will support high-based supercells with the potential for large hail (with instances near 2 inches) and damaging winds. Weak low-level shear will limit tornado potential but any discrete supercells that become established could pose risk of a tornado as they track eastward into the better air mass across far eastern Colorado/Oklahoma Panhandle. ...TX Big Country into North TX... Thunderstorm development is still expected later this afternoon/early evening in the corridor from SJT northeastward into the Young/Stephens/Eastland county vicinity. Robust buoyancy and shear will support the potential for splitting supercells capable of very large hail and strong downbursts. ...Great Basin... A few strong gusts remain possible across the Great Basin as clusters of high-based thunderstorms move northwestward this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier.. 06/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023/ ...Mid-South/TN Valley region through tonight... Around the southern periphery of a closed midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, embedded shortwave troughs will move eastward over the lower OH and TN Valleys through early tonight. An associated surface cyclone will likewise develop eastward along and just north of the OH River, as a trailing pre-frontal trough and cold front move southeastward across the Mid-South and southern Plains through tonight. Clouds are fairly widespread as of late morning from the southern Appalachians northward into the OH Valley and westward into the mid MS Valley. A little south of the thicker clouds and surface cyclone track, there is a corridor of stronger surface heating from south central KY into the Mid-South, where temperatures will warm into the 80s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints. These surface conditions beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will drive MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon in the zone of weak low-level confluence/convergence associated with an embedded midlevel speed max, along the edge of the thicker clouds from central KY into western TN and AR. The moderate-strong buoyancy and midlevel flow near 40 kt will support a mix of multicell clusters/line segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. There will be somewhat stronger deep-layer flow/shear and a little greater potential for supercells across the Mid-South later this afternoon/evening. The convection will continue to spread eastward and southeastward across the TN Valley early tonight, with some continued damaging-wind threat. Other scattered thunderstorms could form this afternoon/evening to the west of the thicker clouds across the southern Appalachians. The stronger wind profiles/vertical shear will be west and north of this area through the afternoon, so the primary severe threats will be damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail this afternoon/evening. Uncertainty increases with eastward extent due to the widespread clouds/rain from northeast GA into western NC and vicinity, and the primary increase in flow/shear will tend to occur after the muted diurnal cycle. ...Southern High Plains through tonight... Post-frontal, upslope flow is established this morning from eastern CO into northeast NM. Though not particularly large, buoyancy will be sufficient for supercells forming and moving eastward off the Raton Mesa, given easterly low-level inflow and relatively long hodographs. Large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the primary severe threats, though an isolated tornado could also occur. Convection will likely persist into the overnight hours, immediately downstream from an embedded mid-upper speed max that will move east-northeastward from AZ to NM. Storm development is much less certain farther south into northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/South Plains. If a storm were to form along the stalled front this afternoon, it would potentially become supercellular with a conditional large hail threat. ...North TX late this afternoon into early tonight... Strong surface heating is underway to the south of a pre-frontal trough and weak cold front that are moving slowly southward across OK. As surface temperatures warm well into the 90s, convective inhibition will diminish and MLCAPE will increase to 3000-4000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain rather weak, but deep-layer flow will be strong enough to support the potential for a few splitting supercells (given relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt). Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and damaging gusts will be the main threat with these storms from late afternoon into early tonight. ...Great Basin this afternoon/evening... Embedded speed maxima will rotate northward around the eastern periphery of the midlevel low over southern CA. The ascent attendant to the speed maxima, in concert with daytime heating, will support clusters of high-based storms capable of producing a few strong-severe outflow gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND FAR WEST TX... Only minor changes were made with this update based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet streak (60 to 70 knots) will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Monday. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Surface winds around 25 mph are expected with relative humidity of 7 to 11 percent. The strongest winds and lowest relative humidity will be across southern New Mexico and vicinity where the majority of ERC values are now above the 90th percentile, indicating critically dry fuels. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are expected from late morning through the evening hours across southern New Mexico and vicinity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND FAR WEST TX... Only minor changes were made with this update based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet streak (60 to 70 knots) will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Monday. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Surface winds around 25 mph are expected with relative humidity of 7 to 11 percent. The strongest winds and lowest relative humidity will be across southern New Mexico and vicinity where the majority of ERC values are now above the 90th percentile, indicating critically dry fuels. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are expected from late morning through the evening hours across southern New Mexico and vicinity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening across northwest into north-central Texas, with very large hail as the main risk. Severe thunderstorms are also expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern across the CONUS will feature a pair of cyclones early Monday morning, one centered over the Upper Great Lakes and the other one centered over the Great Basin. The Upper Great Lakes cyclone is forecast to slowly drift eastward towards Lower MI, while deepening slightly. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to rotate through this cyclone, with the lead wave progressing eastward/northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. The following wave will likely move across the OH Valley Monday afternoon/evening, reaching the Lower Great Lakes vicinity early Tuesday morning. The western cyclone is forecast to weaken as it moves into the Four Corner region, with shortwave troughs expected to move through its base as well. The lead wave should move through the southern High Plains and into the central Plains during the period, while the wave in its wake moves across southern CA and into AZ from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will extend throughout the base of this cyclone, and is expected to expand into the southern Plains throughout day. Stronger flow is expected through the base of the Great Lakes cyclone as well, and the combination of these areas will result in a corridor of enhanced mid-level flow from northern Baja/northern Mexico across the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. The surface pattern on Monday will be dominated by two features, strong ridging over the northern and central Plains, and a low and associated front over the eastern CONUS. The surface low will begin the period over the Lower Great Lakes before drifting northward and further occluding. The associated cold front is forecast to continue progressing eastward, interacting with the moist air mass in place along the Eastern Seaboard. Additionally, the boundary between the drier continental air mass associated with the ridging and more moist air mass in place across the southern Plains and Southeast is expected to sharpen, particularly over TX. ...Northwest into North-Central Texas... Strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) is forecast to develop over the TX Big Country, near a triple point low at the intersection of the stalled surface front and dryline. Mesoscale ascent associated will this low is expected to result in isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Strong vertical shear is anticipated with hodographs showing supercell wind profiles. Environmental conditions favor very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) as the primary risk with initial development. Low-level wind profiles do show veering with height, but flow is generally weak and the storms should be fairly high based. As such, the tornado threat is low, but non-zero, particularly if storms interact with the boundary. Upscale growth is likely, with the resulting line bringing a severe risk farther into north-central TX. Higher probabilities may be needed, but uncertainty regarding coverage limits the confidence to introduce any with this outlook. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop during the afternoon, amid the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints expected to be in place. Afternoon thunderstorms development appears likely along the cold front pushing into region. Seasonally strong mid-level flow is expected across the region as well. All of these factors will result in a broad area of severe risk. A locally higher severe risk is anticipated from eastern LA into southern AL and western FL Panhandle, where guidance suggests a convectively augmented vorticity maximum will interact with the already favorable environment. Higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed in this area, but low predictability of vort max strength and evolution, and uncertain frontal position currently limit the forecast confidence. ...Colorado Front Range into the TX Panhandle... Boundary-layer destabilization will remain confined to a narrow corridor, along a remnant surface front into the higher terrain, as a lead short wave impulse emerges from the Great Basin. Still, this environment may become favorable for a period of isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorm development, before convection tends to advect off and away from the higher terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic through the Carolinas... Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along the eastward-progressing cold front, with some development possible along any pre-frontal troughing as well. Lapse rates will generally be poor, but afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s should still support low to moderate buoyancy as the air mass heats up. The stronger mid-level flow will likely arrive during the evening, after the peak thunderstorm coverage, but some stronger storms are still possible, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. Less buoyancy is anticipated across the northern portions of the region, but stronger mesoscale ascent and greater shear near the triple point low could still foster a few severe storms. ..Mosier.. 06/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening across northwest into north-central Texas, with very large hail as the main risk. Severe thunderstorms are also expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern across the CONUS will feature a pair of cyclones early Monday morning, one centered over the Upper Great Lakes and the other one centered over the Great Basin. The Upper Great Lakes cyclone is forecast to slowly drift eastward towards Lower MI, while deepening slightly. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to rotate through this cyclone, with the lead wave progressing eastward/northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. The following wave will likely move across the OH Valley Monday afternoon/evening, reaching the Lower Great Lakes vicinity early Tuesday morning. The western cyclone is forecast to weaken as it moves into the Four Corner region, with shortwave troughs expected to move through its base as well. The lead wave should move through the southern High Plains and into the central Plains during the period, while the wave in its wake moves across southern CA and into AZ from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will extend throughout the base of this cyclone, and is expected to expand into the southern Plains throughout day. Stronger flow is expected through the base of the Great Lakes cyclone as well, and the combination of these areas will result in a corridor of enhanced mid-level flow from northern Baja/northern Mexico across the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. The surface pattern on Monday will be dominated by two features, strong ridging over the northern and central Plains, and a low and associated front over the eastern CONUS. The surface low will begin the period over the Lower Great Lakes before drifting northward and further occluding. The associated cold front is forecast to continue progressing eastward, interacting with the moist air mass in place along the Eastern Seaboard. Additionally, the boundary between the drier continental air mass associated with the ridging and more moist air mass in place across the southern Plains and Southeast is expected to sharpen, particularly over TX. ...Northwest into North-Central Texas... Strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) is forecast to develop over the TX Big Country, near a triple point low at the intersection of the stalled surface front and dryline. Mesoscale ascent associated will this low is expected to result in isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Strong vertical shear is anticipated with hodographs showing supercell wind profiles. Environmental conditions favor very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) as the primary risk with initial development. Low-level wind profiles do show veering with height, but flow is generally weak and the storms should be fairly high based. As such, the tornado threat is low, but non-zero, particularly if storms interact with the boundary. Upscale growth is likely, with the resulting line bringing a severe risk farther into north-central TX. Higher probabilities may be needed, but uncertainty regarding coverage limits the confidence to introduce any with this outlook. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop during the afternoon, amid the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints expected to be in place. Afternoon thunderstorms development appears likely along the cold front pushing into region. Seasonally strong mid-level flow is expected across the region as well. All of these factors will result in a broad area of severe risk. A locally higher severe risk is anticipated from eastern LA into southern AL and western FL Panhandle, where guidance suggests a convectively augmented vorticity maximum will interact with the already favorable environment. Higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed in this area, but low predictability of vort max strength and evolution, and uncertain frontal position currently limit the forecast confidence. ...Colorado Front Range into the TX Panhandle... Boundary-layer destabilization will remain confined to a narrow corridor, along a remnant surface front into the higher terrain, as a lead short wave impulse emerges from the Great Basin. Still, this environment may become favorable for a period of isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorm development, before convection tends to advect off and away from the higher terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic through the Carolinas... Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along the eastward-progressing cold front, with some development possible along any pre-frontal troughing as well. Lapse rates will generally be poor, but afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s should still support low to moderate buoyancy as the air mass heats up. The stronger mid-level flow will likely arrive during the evening, after the peak thunderstorm coverage, but some stronger storms are still possible, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. Less buoyancy is anticipated across the northern portions of the region, but stronger mesoscale ascent and greater shear near the triple point low could still foster a few severe storms. ..Mosier.. 06/11/2023 Read more

MD 0966 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0966 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...far southwest Nebraska...and northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102145Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and shift east/southeast across the northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska Plains into northwest Kansas this evening. Sporadic strong gusts and hail are possible. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed near higher terrain in the I-25 corridor in central/north-central CO this afternoon. Surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s, limiting stronger destabilization, but steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to sustain at least briefly strong updrafts as storms shift east/southeast. Vertical shear will be a limiting factor in a more widespread/better organized severe threat, with 0-6 km bulk shear only around 15-20 kt. Nevertheless, strong heating has allowed low-level lapse rates to become very steep. Given adequate instability/shear for at least briefly intense cells, the deeply-mixed boundary-layer may support strong downdrafts. Hail may also briefly be possible with the more intense cores. As convection percolates east through the evening toward southwest NE/northwest KS, some consolidation/organization along outflows is possible. This could result in some increase in severe gust potential after 00z. However, confidence in this evolution is somewhat low. While a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear necessary in the short term, convective trends will be monitored into this evening. ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41160212 40450105 39660063 39350071 38800123 38480217 38470377 38550425 39250455 40310479 40770459 41130397 41240292 41160212 Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/10/23 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-035-041-051-073-093-099-113-133-139-143-145-161- 185-193-213-217-221-225-237-251-257-281-289-293-309-313-331-333- 347-349-363-367-373-395-397-403-405-407-423-425-429-439-455-467- 471-503-102240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOUSTON JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER POLK ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SMITH SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER YOUNG Read more

WW 262 SEVERE TSTM TX 101935Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and east Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to form this afternoon along and south-through-west of an outflow boundary across the southern Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. The initial discrete storms will have the potential to produce isolated very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter. Storms will move southeastward this evening with the potential for upscale growth and an increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-75 mph. An isolated tornado or two could occur with supercells along the slow-moving parts of the outflow boundary late this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Stephenville TX to 50 miles northeast of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 33025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE TYR TO 25 S SHV TO 30 NNW MLU. WW 261 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SUPINIE..06/10/23 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-127-102200- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC365-401-419-102200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PANOLA RUSK SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 261 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 101550Z - 102200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1050 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to develop southeastward through the afternoon toward extreme southwest Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, and northeast Texas. The strongest embedded storms will be capable of producing damaging outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter through mid-late afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southeast of El Dorado AR to 30 miles west northwest of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0263 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 263 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 102120Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect much of northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi through the early evening. Strong instability will promote the potential for gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Natchez MS to 45 miles northeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through late evening from the ArkLaTex into central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...North/Central TX... Recent surface analysis places an outflow boundary from Wise County southeastward to Ellis/Navarro Counties and then back eastward/east-northeastward into northwest LA. Cumulus is developing along this boundary across the southern Metroplex vicinity, and the air mass here and south is strongly unstable (i.e. MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg). An initially cellular mode is anticipated, with some supercells possible. Very large hail will be primary threat, but a tornado or two is also possible if any storms interact with the outflow boundary. Expectation is for eventual upscale growth, with the line then moving southeastward into east/southeast TX. The threat would transition to damaging gusts during that time, with a few gusts from 60-75 mph are possible. This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #964 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262. ...Central Plains/Central High Plains... Overall expectations across the central High Plains and central Plains have not changed. Across the central High Plains, thunderstorms expected to come off the higher terrain and move into the lower elevations, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts. Over the central Plains, a strong storm or two is still possible this evening and overnight as a cold front pushes through the region. ..Mosier.. 06/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through late evening... A cluster of thunderstorms is moving southeastward across the ArkLaTex as of late morning, with an MCV over eastern OK (trailing the initial convection/outflow). Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s from northeast TX into northern LA/southern AR, which is boosting MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Vertical shear remains relatively weak near and ahead of the primary convective band along the outflow, and the strongest updrafts should remain along the southern flank of the cluster. Thus, the expectation is for occasional damaging gusts with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, with a somewhat outflow-dominant structure to the cluster as is moves southeastward through the afternoon. Other, more isolated storm clusters with isolated downburst potential, may occur this afternoon along the instability gradient into MS. Farther west, outflow with the morning cluster is moving southward into north TX. Strong surface heating and a feed of steep midlevel lapse rates from the west will contribute to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) this afternoon, along and south of the outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon along the slowing outflow, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward toward southeast TX before weakening early tonight. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells along the outflow boundary as a weak midlevel trough/speed max moves eastward over TX within the southern stream. The steep lapse rates/large buoyancy, in combination with mainly straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, will support supercell clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. Some upscale growth will be possible this evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for damaging outflow gusts. Any tornado threat will rely on favorable storm interactions with locally backed flow/stronger low-level shear along the modifying outflow boundary late this afternoon. ...Central Plains this afternoon into tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central Plains in associated with remnant MCVs and differential heating zones. Buoyancy and vertical shear will not be strong, but isolated/marginal hail/wind events will be possible. Other clusters of storms may form across the High Plains and move east-southeastward this evening into tonight. These storms may produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from eastern CO into KS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will start to overspread the Southwest on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves out of southern Arizona into New Mexico. Deep mixing will bring some of this stronger flow to the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph expected. Relative humidity of 8 to 15 percent is expected in a region with 90th percentile ERCs. Therefore, elevated conditions are expected late morning and continuing into the evening hours across much of southeast Arizona and southwest/western New Mexico. A smaller area of critical fire weather conditions are most likely across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where these strongest winds are expected and the greatest chance for large fire spread will exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Arkansas into and lower Ohio Valley and Middle Tennessee Sunday afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A somewhat active upper pattern (by mid-June standards) is anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to drop southward into the Upper Great Lakes, encouraged southward by a shortwave trough progressing through its southern periphery across the Mid MS, OH and TN Valleys. Expectation is for this shortwave to be over the central/southern Appalachians by early Monday morning. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the St. Louis vicinity early Sunday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central MO and central OK to another low in northwest TX. This cold front is forecast to push southeastward throughout the day, as the surface low moves northeastward across the OH Valley. By 00Z Monday, expectation is for this cold front to stretch from the low in southern OH southwestward across western KY through the Mid-South and Arklatex to another low over north-central TX. Farther west, an upper low initially over the southern CA coast will likely track northeastward across southern CA and southern NV. As it does, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate through its western periphery into the Great Basin. Additionally, strong mid-level flow associated with this low will spread eastward through the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South into the OH/TN Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Mid MS Valley early Sunday morning, in the vicinity of the surface low. General expectation is for storm intensity and coverage to gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches, encouraging the surface low northeastward and its attendant front southeastward. Moderate air mass destabilization is anticipated ahead of the front from central AR into western/middle TN. Shear will be modest, but sufficient for a few more organized multicell clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the risk for damaging gusts, with a few updrafts likely strong enough to produce hail as well. Less destabilization is expected farther north across the OH Valley, but increased shear and ascent near the surface could still contribute to gusty winds with more robust storms. ...Central/Southern High Plains.. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of CO Sunday afternoon. Mean westerly flow will likely push these storms off the higher terrain into the adjacent plains, where moist post-frontal, easterly flow is expected. Veering wind profiles will contribute to moderate vertical shear, and the potential for a few supercells capable of all severe hazards. ...Great Basin.. Thunderstorms coverage is expected to increase during the afternoon as ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough moves through the modestly buoyancy air mass over the region. Steep low-level lapse rates will be in place, with modest mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures responsible for the buoyancy. High cloud bases and a few stronger updrafts may result in a few stronger downdrafts within this well-mixed environment. ...North TX into the Arklatex... A more conditional risk for an isolated severe storm or two is anticipated as the air mass recovers ahead of the approaching front. Warm and dry mid-levels from preceding convection may prevent deep convection, but there is some chance there is enough heating to remove this inhibition. If storms do develop, the overall environment should support supercells, with large hail as the primary threat. ..Mosier.. 06/10/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 9 22:16:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0961 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092113Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. DISCUSSION...While most CAM guidance, other than the NAM, mixed out dewpoints across the Texas Panhandle today, it has not materialized with upper 50 to low 60s dewpoints across much of the Texas Panhandle. As a result, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed across the region with only weak inhibition, per SPC mesoanalysis. A few storms have developed along a dryline from near Clovis to north of Lubbock with some additional towers observed beneath the cirrus plume. A broad region of ascent will continue to overspread this region through the evening which could help aid in storm development. If sustained updrafts can develop, supercell organization is possible with with around 40 knots of effective shear. These supercells will have a primary hazard of large hail, but a greater damaging wind threat could develop if more scattered development occurs and they consolidate into a linear segment. Would expect the threat to remain too isolated/short-lived for a watch, but if the severe threat becomes more widespread or shows signs of being longer lasting, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 33500128 34300211 34670312 34960370 35540420 36560284 36630102 35639979 34549950 33819946 33369957 33110004 33500128 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible late this afternoon into early tonight, mainly from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward in the Raton Mesa vicinity, where convection is increasing within a modestly unstable and sheared environment. Also, the 5% hail has been expanded into central NE, where severe hail was noted earlier this afternoon, and MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg may continue to support isolated hail with the strongest storms. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See MCD 958 for more information regarding the short-term threat in the central Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 06/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ...Eastern CO/western KS to west TX through tonight... Embedded speed maxima within the southern stream will eject east-northeastward from NM toward the southern High Plains through tonight. This will support continued weak lee troughing across the southern High Plains, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to mix into the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon immediately east of the trough/dryline. Thunderstorm initiation appears more probable along the east slopes of the higher terrain in southeast CO by early-mid afternoon, and convection will spread eastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle/northern TX Panhandle through early tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt with relatively straight hodographs), but MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and DCAPE > 1200 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates will favor occasional severe outflow gusts as the main threat late this afternoon into early tonight. The degree of storm cluster organization is somewhat in question, but the threat for severe gusts appears to be high enough to warrant a Slight risk area. Farther south, a few storms should form this afternoon near the high terrain in southwest TX, and storms will subsequently spread eastward this evening. Deep mixing will support high-based storms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Thunderstorm development is less certain along the arcing dryline from west central TX into the TX Panhandle. If storms form, there will be a conditional threat for damaging gusts and some hail. ...FL this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move eastward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, while a surface front stalls near the FL/GA border. Strong surface heating is underway across FL, and thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along the front across north FL and along sea breeze boundaries. Weak low-midlevel, west/southwesterly flow profiles will favor the Atlantic coast sea breeze for primary storm development, with multicell clusters the main storm mode. Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts with downbursts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Only minor changes were made to the forecast based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A relative weakness in mid-level flow is anticipated for much of the day Saturday. However, surface conditions will be very dry with single digit relative humidity across much of southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. Late Saturday afternoon, some stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread southern New Mexico ahead of an approaching mid-level jet streak. The strongest winds will remain over northern Mexico during peak heating, but some stronger flow is expected to overspread southern New Mexico and vicinity with sustained surface winds of 15 to 20 mph for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening. Therefore, an Elevated fire weather risk is warranted for southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico, primarily for the late afternoon to early evening period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex, and lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible across the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley, with some potential for very large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two across parts of north and central Texas. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, a seasonably deep upper-level trough will shift slowly eastward across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS on Saturday, as a notable upper ridge remains in place from the northern High Plains into the Canadian Prairies, and a longwave trough generally remains in place from the Great Lakes into much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move through the northern and eventually central Plains, with a frontal wave expected to move southeastward somewhere across NE/KS, and another weak surface wave potentially developing near a surface trough across the southern High Plains. ...ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions... A thunderstorm cluster or loosely organized MCS may be ongoing somewhere across OK/north TX/western AR Saturday morning, aided by low-level warm advection. Some rejuvenation and/or redevelopment along the gust front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon into parts of the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions, as rather strong heating and destabilization occurs downstream of any morning convection. Scattered damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible if this scenario does evolve on Saturday. Any storm cluster or MCS would likely tend to lose organization as it moves toward the lower MS Valley, due to weaker deep-layer shear and low-level inflow with eastward extent, though some damaging wind threat could persist with any remnant cluster into central/southern MS. A few strong multicells could also develop across parts of AR/MS ahead of any outflow-driven cluster during the afternoon, within a warm, buoyant, and uncapped environment. ...Parts of north/central into east TX... Confidence is rather high regarding the development of severe thunderstorms somewhere across central/north TX Saturday afternoon, as a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough moves across the region and an outflow boundary potentially spreads into the area from the north. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding the position of the outflow boundary (if any) during the afternoon. In general, scattered storm development will be possible near any outflow boundary, and also along a diffuse surface trough/dryline that may gradually mix eastward during the afternoon. Strong heating of a favorably moist environment will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near/south of any outflow boundary, and along/east of the weak surface trough/dryline. Midlevel west-northwesterly flow will not be overly strong, but sufficient to support 30-40 kt of effective shear (greater where surface winds are locally backed), and initial development may quickly evolve into supercells with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, depending on mesoscale details regarding the orientation of any outflow boundary and the extent of modification on the cool side of the boundary. With time, storm clustering may result in some upscale growth, with a threat of damaging winds and embedded hail spreading south-southeastward Saturday evening into portions of central/southeast TX. Storms will eventually move into a region of weaker deep-layer shear and increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat may reach as far as the upper TX coast Saturday night. ...Central Plains... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across the High Plains, and along/ahead of the cold front from central/eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally remain rather weak, with some uncertain potential for locally enhanced shear near any MCVs. One or more weakly organized clusters may eventually evolve and move east/southeastward with time across the region, with an attendant threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/09/2023 Read more