Severe Storms

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 469 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..07/10/23 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...DMX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-147-149-151-161-167-193- 102240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC SIOUX WOODBURY NEC001-003-005-009-011-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-035-037-039- 041-043-047-051-053-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085- 089-091-093-099-101-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-135-137-139- 141-143-149-163-167-171-173-175-179-183-185-102240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE ARTHUR BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO BURT BUTLER CEDAR CHASE CLAY COLFAX CUMING Read more

WW 469 SEVERE TSTM IA NE SD 102010Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across from central Nebraska into far northwest Iowa this afternoon. Environmental conditions support strong to severe thunderstorms, with some storms capable of producing very large hail greater than 2" in diameter and/or wind gusts near 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of North Platte NE to 60 miles northeast of Sioux City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 468... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN...NORTHERN WI...AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Areas affected...Far southeastern MN...northern WI...and southern Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102042Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail should increase during the next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops indicate deepening cumulus along an east-west-oriented cold front draped across parts of Upper MI, northern WI, and east-central MN. Continued diurnal destabilization amid frontal convergence should support increasing convective development during the next couple hours in the vicinity of the front as it moves slowly southward. Around 40 kt of effective shear oriented parallel to the cold front should favor a couple organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable of damaging winds and isolated large hail. With the stronger deep-layer flow/shear generally confined to the cool side of the cold front, it is somewhat unclear how organized storms will be as they progress southward into the stronger surface-based instability into the early evening. Environmental and convective trends will be monitored during the next couple hours for a potential watch issuance. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45328659 45948623 46208640 46318677 46278740 46228833 46138997 45989094 45789198 45579268 45309326 45019348 44579354 44199316 44009271 44039203 44129150 44439022 44668915 44978716 45328659 Read more

MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID AND WESTERN MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ID and western MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102007Z - 102230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the main concerns. DISCUSSION...Low-topped thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage across the higher terrain in eastern ID and far western MT -- aided by broad large-scale ascent preceding a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. During the next couple hours, continued diurnal heating amid cloud breaks should yield weakly unstable surface-based inflow for this activity. A belt of around 30-kt midlevel southwesterly flow (per regional VWP) accompanying the shortwave trough should support brief updraft organization and an attendant risk of marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts with the stronger/longer-lived cores. The severe risk is expected to remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 45161148 44891234 44771299 44741352 44831402 45091444 45491471 45991485 46531485 47041462 47361430 47671382 47781339 47881267 47791211 47661172 47261121 46561096 45931093 45391113 45161148 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and a couple of organizing storm clusters may pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. Main change at 20Z was to expand severe probabilities westward across Colorado as storms have formed near the Front Range. A very moist air mass remains over the eastern CO counties with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1483. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023/ ...Upper Midwest into Central Plains... Morning satellite imagery show several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving through the northern periphery of the upper ridging extending from the southern High Plains into the northern Rockies. One of these shortwaves is moving into central SD, with continued southeastward motion towards the Mid MO Valley anticipated. In addition to this approaching shortwave trough, a cold front stretches from western SD eastward through southern MN and northern WI and then back northeastward across Upper MI. This boundary is expected to push gradually southward throughout the day, moving across much of SD, southern MN, and northern/central WI. Convergence along this boundary is expected to result in thunderstorm development during the late afternoon across southern MN and northern/central WI. Low 60s dewpoints are already in place in this area, with additional moisture advection helping to offset mixing throughout the day. As such, low 60s will likely still be in place later this afternoon, helping to support moderate buoyancy amid late afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. This region will also be on the southern edge of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft around the cyclone centered over northern Ontario. These environmental conditions should support robust updrafts along the front. Hail is possible with the initial development, but low-level lapse rates will likely support outflow-dominant storm structures, with upscale growth into one or more linear segment anticipated quickly. These convective lines are then expected to shift southward into more of central WI northern IA during the evening before dissipating amid nocturnal stabilization. Farther west (from the Mid MO Valley into NE), thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the primary frontal zone along a sharpening pre-frontal trough, with low-level convergence along the trough augmented by ascent attendant the approaching shortwave. Afternoon dewpoints along this trough will likely be in the mid 60s, supporting strong buoyancy amid steep mid-level lapse rates and surface temperatures in the low 90s. Robust shear will be in place as well, as strong southerly surface winds veer to northwesterly aloft. This environment should support supercells capable of large to very large hail and strong outflow. Some upscale growth is possible, with the resulting convective line moving south into southern NE. Another shortwave trough is moving into western CO, which is expected to aid in the development of thunderstorms along the lee trough in eastern CO, where the environment will be similar to that over NE. Initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and strong downdrafts are anticipated, before potential upscale growth in this area as well. Interaction between these more eastward-progressing storms and then more southward-progressing storms in NE is likely. The latest guidance suggests this interaction will lead to the development of a robust MCS capable of significant wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain before then moving into the moderately unstable airmass downstream across eastern NM and west TX. The airmass across west TX will be characterized by greater low-level moisture/instability, supporting more robust updrafts and an increasing risk of a few severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. These storms may persist for a few hours and spread into southwest OK before weakening. ...Central MT... A few strong to severe storms are possible across the region where modest destabilization and shear will be in place ahead of a lead short wave trough progressing into the northern Rockies. Initial development is anticipated across the higher terrain before then spreading into more of south-central Montana later this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor refinements were made to the elevated area, with a slight expansion into portions of west-central Utah, based on the latest guidance. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/northern Arizona into southern Utah during the afternoon/evening. However, forecast soundings indicate PWAT values across this region exceeding 1 inch despite generally receptive fuels, thus precluding the introduction of highlights for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Karstens.. 07/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Southerly flow beneath the high pressure ridge across the Southwest will bring moisture northward into Arizona, keeping afternoon relative humidity higher with cooler temperatures and potential for wetting rainfall. Portions of Nevada and Utah will remain dry, warm, and breezy with Elevated fire weather conditions possible on Tuesday. ...Southern/Central Nevada far western Utah... Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible with sustained winds around 15 mph. ERCs within this region continue to be within the 90th percentile. An Elevated delineation has been maintained across portions of southern and central Nevada and far western Utah to cover this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... The greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will be centered over Nebraska, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. Other severe storms will be possible over northern and eastern Texas, from eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, and from northern Illinois to Lake Erie. ...Synopsis... Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains, between an upper high over AZ/NM and an upper low over Hudson Bay. Weak upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during day, but this will flatten as a weak wave moves east/southeastward out of MT. At the surface, high pressure will begin the day over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a stalled front roughly along I-80 in NE and IA. Substantial moisture will exist south of the boundary, with mid 60s dewpoints as far into northwest NE by late afternoon. Southerly winds above the surface will aid elevated moisture transport, with substantial elevated instability as far north as central SD. ...Northern/Central Plains... Scattered storms are likely by late afternoon from eastern MT into the western Dakotas as the influence of the midlevel wave is felt, with heating and convergence near a surface trough. A few cells may produce hail or gusty winds there. To the south, storms are likely to form over west-central/northern NE in proximity to the strong instability. Very large damaging hail will be likely. Model solutions vary as to how widespread storms will be, and whether an MCS may form. If that occurs, then the severe risk would spread eastward across NE, western IA, and parts of northern KS and MO. Elongated hodographs with veering winds with height will favor southeastward-moving supercells. ...Northern and eastern TX to the central Gulf Coast... Models indicate an MCS could be ongoing over parts of OK Tuesday morning, and any outflow with this system would continue south/southeast. Strong instability will develop over TX and LA due to the very moist air mass and steepening low-level lapse rates, with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Brief hail or locally damaging gusts may occur with redevelopment related to this regime, and portions of this region could reach Slight Risk levels in later outlooks as predictability increases. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 9 22:04:06 UTC 2023.

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW WAL TO 15 N SBY TO 20 NNE DOV. ..BROYLES..07/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC005-092340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SUSSEX MDC039-047-092340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WORCESTER NJC009-092340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE MAY VAC001-092340- Read more

WW 467 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ VA CW 091720Z - 100000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central Maryland Far Southern New Jersey Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase within the developing convective line forecast to move east across the region. Some strong thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible within this line, and with any additional storms that develop ahead of the main line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Patuxent River MD to 30 miles west northwest of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 465...WW 466... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW OAJ TO 20 NW EWN TO 35 WSW ECG TO 25 SW ORF TO 20 NNW ORF. ..BENTLEY..07/09/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-029-031-041-047-049-053-055-073-095-103-129-133-137- 139-141-143-177-187-092140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HYDE JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC115-131-550-710-740-810-092140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 466 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 091610Z - 100000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 466...CORRECTED NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 CORRECTED FOR MISSING MARINE ZONES and INCORRECT END TIME The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina South-Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms is expected to continue moving eastward across southern Virginia and central/eastern North Carolina through the afternoon. Environmental conditions suggest strong to severe storms are possible within this line, with damaging gusts as the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Fayetteville NC to 30 miles northeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 465... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ILG TO 20 NW ILG TO 35 NNW ILG TO 5 ESE ABE TO 25 N JFK. ..BENTLEY..07/09/23 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-092140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MDC015-029-092140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CECIL KENT NJC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-027-033-035-092140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS SALEM SOMERSET Read more

WW 465 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 091505Z - 092200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northern Delaware Northeast Maryland Western New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1105 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours, resulting in widespread overall coverage. A few stronger storms are possible, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Allentown PA to 35 miles west southwest of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... The primary risk for damaging wind gusts remains across the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts or marginal hail remain possible over much of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Remnant outflow from an earlier MCS continues to push east across AR and into western TN/northern MS. This system has not shown any signs of strengthening, despite the moist/unstable air mass downstream. Numerous showers and storms have already formed across LA, MS, and southern AL, and the large number of storms may tend to overturn the air mass quickly. Isolated strong gusts or marginal hail will remain possible mid modest effective shear around 30 kt. ...Mid Atlantic... Strong to severe storms currently extend from the Philadelphia area southward into eastern NC ahead of a cold front. These will continue to pose a wind damage threat as they consume the unstable air mass, then move offshore. ..Jewell.. 07/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic Region... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the central Appalachians. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, interacting with the very moist air mass across the Mid-Atlantic region. Mesoanalysis estimates that MLCAPE is already around 1500 J/kg from eastern PA into NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity. Shear is relatively modest across northern portions of the region, with effective bulk shear around 30 to 35 kt. As a result, a predominantly multicellular storm mode is anticipated, with updraft duration likely limited by the lack of strong shear and storm interactions. Even so, some water-loaded downdrafts appear likely, particularly from now until the early afternoon. Farther south (across VA and into the Carolinas), a cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal trough this morning across western NC. Vertical shear over this area (particularly NC) is a bit stronger and more westerly than areas farther north. This vertical shear will combine with ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy to support the persistence of this line as it moves eastward this morning through the afternoon. Robust updrafts are possible within this line, with the potential to produce damaging gusts. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Arklatex into Gulf Coast states... Updrafts along the leading edge of the ongoing convective complex have weakened for now. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to re-intensify along a cold front sagging across AR/TN. This activity will spread southeastward across much of northern MS/AL and northwest GA through the evening hours with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally, multiple clusters of storms are may form this afternoon ahead of the remnant aforementioned MCS over parts of southern MS/AL into the FL panhandle. This will be in a region of hot/humid boundary-layer air and beneath 25-35 knot westerly mid-level winds. The strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible later this afternoon into this evening as a subtle shortwave trough moves through the southern periphery of the cyclone centered over northern Manitoba. A modestly buoyant airmass is anticipated across the region, which will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases may support a few damaging gusts with any of the more robust storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly northward into eastern NV. Some uncertainty exists regarding how much precipitation may occur across the region on Sunday afternoon. However, well-cured fuels with ERCs around the 90th percentile, along with breezy and very dry conditions, warrant an Elevated fire-weather threat in this area. No changes were made to the dry-thunderstorm and Elevated areas in the Pacific Northwest. Current thinking is that the isolated, dry-thunderstorm threat will materialize by midday, with drier and gustier conditions along the OR/WA border expected later in the afternoon. The thunderstorms should reside in a slightly more moist environment and yield some wetting precipitation, but lightning starts are possible outside of main cores. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy.. 07/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the Western US on Monday increasing temperatures with drying conditions and generally weakening winds. A shortwave will rotate across the far northern periphery of the ridge bringing chances for dry thunderstorms and potential for dry and windy conditions across portions of the Pacific Northwest. ...Southern Nevada, Northern Arizona, and Southern Utah... Winds will weaken across northern Arizona and southern Utah from Sunday but locally breezy conditions will remain possible on Monday. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained winds 15-20 mph will be possible. Given that winds may only briefly approach Critical speeds, an Elevated delineation was most appropriate to cover the threat. Locally Critical fire weather conditions may briefly occur. ...Eastern Washington and northern Oregon... The approaching trough will lead to an increase in winds across portions of eastern Washington and northern Oregon on Monday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to as low as 15-20 percent and sustained winds around 20 mph (gusting up to 40 mph) will be possible across the Columbia Gorge into the Columbia Basin. Within this region, fine fuels have cured and will support fire spread potential. Larger fuels remain less receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of eastern Washington and far western Idaho. High based storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds and lightning. New lightning starts will be possible with drying fuels within this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Greatest risk for severe storms will be over parts of the central and southern Plains on Monday. Sporadic severe storms are possible over the northern Rockies, parts of the upper Great Lakes region, and over a small portion of the Northeast. ...Much of the Central Plains... Strong instability over much of the Plains will again favor areas of severe storms, mainly from NE into NM/TX during the afternoon and evening. Although upper-level temperatures may be a bit warmer with indications of subsidence, strong heating and MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg in the northwest flow regime will favor severe hail and wind along the front in NE and into the deeply mixed/heated air over NM/TX. A disturbance rounding the AZ/NM upper high may support a continued severe threat into central TX late. Isolated very large hail cannot be ruled out conditional on proper storm mode over NE and perhaps northwest TX. ...Northern Rockies... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Pacific Northwest and into MT as a weak shortwave trough affects the area. The steep lapse rate environment will make the most of the minimal moisture, resulting in 500+ J/kg MUCAPE beneath moderate westerlies aloft, favoring both marginal hail and locally strong gusts. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A surface trough will set up from Nebraska into Upper Michigan during the day, just south of the stronger flow aloft around the Ontario upper low. Heating as well as convergence along the boundary will lead to a broken line of strong to severe storms from the Twin Cities to Lake Superior. The steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will strongly favor hail production, and isolated supercells will be possible. A brief tornado may occur near the boundary. ...Northeast... Cool air aloft with a small ejecting shortwave trough will combine with 65-70 dewpoints and minimal heating to produce areas of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day. This area of precipitation will shift northeastward with time, and the southern periphery could potentially harbor a few stronger cells as they will have access to stronger instability to southwest. That said, instability will be weak, as will shear, though winds will veer with height within the warm advection zone. Any rotation within storms is expected to be weak given aforementioned factors. Otherwise, locally strong wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/09/2023 Read more

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...462... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Far Southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462... Valid 082218Z - 090015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the central High Plains this evening. The threat will develop southward with time across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1005 mb low over south-central Colorado with a quasi-stationary front located across southeast Colorado. To the northeast of the front, winds are backed to the east-southeast. A gradually veering wind profile with height is evident on the Goodland WSR-88D VWP, which is contributing to 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. This, combined with moderate instability and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km, analyzed on the RAP, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The Goodland VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado or two will be possible with the stronger and more dominant supercells. As an MCS organizes, the wind-damage threat is expected to increase. The wind-damage threat will become maximized along the leading edge of any line that can form and persist. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37990089 39750129 40990214 41270276 41240342 40940391 40360433 39650438 38790393 37900285 37380243 37130189 37330118 37990089 Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0462 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 462 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 082205Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop within a relatively moist environment, initially across southeast Colorado and far northeast New Mexico late this afternoon. These will include supercells capable of large hail, and some tornado risk will also exist mainly across southeast Colorado this evening. Storms will gradually spread toward the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and western Kansas this evening, with an increasingly organized cluster of storms potentially evolving. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Lamar CO to 60 miles west southwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 461... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more