Severe Storms

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW OAJ TO 20 NW EWN TO 35 WSW ECG TO 25 SW ORF TO 20 NNW ORF. ..BENTLEY..07/09/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-029-031-041-047-049-053-055-073-095-103-129-133-137- 139-141-143-177-187-092140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HYDE JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC115-131-550-710-740-810-092140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 466 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 091610Z - 100000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 466...CORRECTED NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 CORRECTED FOR MISSING MARINE ZONES and INCORRECT END TIME The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina South-Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms is expected to continue moving eastward across southern Virginia and central/eastern North Carolina through the afternoon. Environmental conditions suggest strong to severe storms are possible within this line, with damaging gusts as the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Fayetteville NC to 30 miles northeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 465... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ILG TO 20 NW ILG TO 35 NNW ILG TO 5 ESE ABE TO 25 N JFK. ..BENTLEY..07/09/23 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-092140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MDC015-029-092140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CECIL KENT NJC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-023-027-033-035-092140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS SALEM SOMERSET Read more

WW 465 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 091505Z - 092200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northern Delaware Northeast Maryland Western New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1105 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours, resulting in widespread overall coverage. A few stronger storms are possible, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Allentown PA to 35 miles west southwest of Wilmington DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... The primary risk for damaging wind gusts remains across the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. Isolated severe gusts or marginal hail remain possible over much of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Remnant outflow from an earlier MCS continues to push east across AR and into western TN/northern MS. This system has not shown any signs of strengthening, despite the moist/unstable air mass downstream. Numerous showers and storms have already formed across LA, MS, and southern AL, and the large number of storms may tend to overturn the air mass quickly. Isolated strong gusts or marginal hail will remain possible mid modest effective shear around 30 kt. ...Mid Atlantic... Strong to severe storms currently extend from the Philadelphia area southward into eastern NC ahead of a cold front. These will continue to pose a wind damage threat as they consume the unstable air mass, then move offshore. ..Jewell.. 07/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic Region... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the central Appalachians. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, interacting with the very moist air mass across the Mid-Atlantic region. Mesoanalysis estimates that MLCAPE is already around 1500 J/kg from eastern PA into NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity. Shear is relatively modest across northern portions of the region, with effective bulk shear around 30 to 35 kt. As a result, a predominantly multicellular storm mode is anticipated, with updraft duration likely limited by the lack of strong shear and storm interactions. Even so, some water-loaded downdrafts appear likely, particularly from now until the early afternoon. Farther south (across VA and into the Carolinas), a cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal trough this morning across western NC. Vertical shear over this area (particularly NC) is a bit stronger and more westerly than areas farther north. This vertical shear will combine with ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy to support the persistence of this line as it moves eastward this morning through the afternoon. Robust updrafts are possible within this line, with the potential to produce damaging gusts. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Arklatex into Gulf Coast states... Updrafts along the leading edge of the ongoing convective complex have weakened for now. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to re-intensify along a cold front sagging across AR/TN. This activity will spread southeastward across much of northern MS/AL and northwest GA through the evening hours with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally, multiple clusters of storms are may form this afternoon ahead of the remnant aforementioned MCS over parts of southern MS/AL into the FL panhandle. This will be in a region of hot/humid boundary-layer air and beneath 25-35 knot westerly mid-level winds. The strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible later this afternoon into this evening as a subtle shortwave trough moves through the southern periphery of the cyclone centered over northern Manitoba. A modestly buoyant airmass is anticipated across the region, which will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases may support a few damaging gusts with any of the more robust storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly northward into eastern NV. Some uncertainty exists regarding how much precipitation may occur across the region on Sunday afternoon. However, well-cured fuels with ERCs around the 90th percentile, along with breezy and very dry conditions, warrant an Elevated fire-weather threat in this area. No changes were made to the dry-thunderstorm and Elevated areas in the Pacific Northwest. Current thinking is that the isolated, dry-thunderstorm threat will materialize by midday, with drier and gustier conditions along the OR/WA border expected later in the afternoon. The thunderstorms should reside in a slightly more moist environment and yield some wetting precipitation, but lightning starts are possible outside of main cores. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy.. 07/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the Western US on Monday increasing temperatures with drying conditions and generally weakening winds. A shortwave will rotate across the far northern periphery of the ridge bringing chances for dry thunderstorms and potential for dry and windy conditions across portions of the Pacific Northwest. ...Southern Nevada, Northern Arizona, and Southern Utah... Winds will weaken across northern Arizona and southern Utah from Sunday but locally breezy conditions will remain possible on Monday. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained winds 15-20 mph will be possible. Given that winds may only briefly approach Critical speeds, an Elevated delineation was most appropriate to cover the threat. Locally Critical fire weather conditions may briefly occur. ...Eastern Washington and northern Oregon... The approaching trough will lead to an increase in winds across portions of eastern Washington and northern Oregon on Monday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to as low as 15-20 percent and sustained winds around 20 mph (gusting up to 40 mph) will be possible across the Columbia Gorge into the Columbia Basin. Within this region, fine fuels have cured and will support fire spread potential. Larger fuels remain less receptive to fire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of eastern Washington and far western Idaho. High based storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds and lightning. New lightning starts will be possible with drying fuels within this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Greatest risk for severe storms will be over parts of the central and southern Plains on Monday. Sporadic severe storms are possible over the northern Rockies, parts of the upper Great Lakes region, and over a small portion of the Northeast. ...Much of the Central Plains... Strong instability over much of the Plains will again favor areas of severe storms, mainly from NE into NM/TX during the afternoon and evening. Although upper-level temperatures may be a bit warmer with indications of subsidence, strong heating and MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg in the northwest flow regime will favor severe hail and wind along the front in NE and into the deeply mixed/heated air over NM/TX. A disturbance rounding the AZ/NM upper high may support a continued severe threat into central TX late. Isolated very large hail cannot be ruled out conditional on proper storm mode over NE and perhaps northwest TX. ...Northern Rockies... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Pacific Northwest and into MT as a weak shortwave trough affects the area. The steep lapse rate environment will make the most of the minimal moisture, resulting in 500+ J/kg MUCAPE beneath moderate westerlies aloft, favoring both marginal hail and locally strong gusts. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A surface trough will set up from Nebraska into Upper Michigan during the day, just south of the stronger flow aloft around the Ontario upper low. Heating as well as convergence along the boundary will lead to a broken line of strong to severe storms from the Twin Cities to Lake Superior. The steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will strongly favor hail production, and isolated supercells will be possible. A brief tornado may occur near the boundary. ...Northeast... Cool air aloft with a small ejecting shortwave trough will combine with 65-70 dewpoints and minimal heating to produce areas of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day. This area of precipitation will shift northeastward with time, and the southern periphery could potentially harbor a few stronger cells as they will have access to stronger instability to southwest. That said, instability will be weak, as will shear, though winds will veer with height within the warm advection zone. Any rotation within storms is expected to be weak given aforementioned factors. Otherwise, locally strong wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/09/2023 Read more

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...462... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Far Southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462... Valid 082218Z - 090015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the central High Plains this evening. The threat will develop southward with time across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1005 mb low over south-central Colorado with a quasi-stationary front located across southeast Colorado. To the northeast of the front, winds are backed to the east-southeast. A gradually veering wind profile with height is evident on the Goodland WSR-88D VWP, which is contributing to 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. This, combined with moderate instability and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km, analyzed on the RAP, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The Goodland VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado or two will be possible with the stronger and more dominant supercells. As an MCS organizes, the wind-damage threat is expected to increase. The wind-damage threat will become maximized along the leading edge of any line that can form and persist. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37990089 39750129 40990214 41270276 41240342 40940391 40360433 39650438 38790393 37900285 37380243 37130189 37330118 37990089 Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0462 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 462 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 082205Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop within a relatively moist environment, initially across southeast Colorado and far northeast New Mexico late this afternoon. These will include supercells capable of large hail, and some tornado risk will also exist mainly across southeast Colorado this evening. Storms will gradually spread toward the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and western Kansas this evening, with an increasingly organized cluster of storms potentially evolving. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Lamar CO to 60 miles west southwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 461... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1465 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082129Z - 082330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will be capable of scattered damaging winds through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving through Western and Middle Tennessee has a history produced reports of 60 mph winds and penny size hail. Daytime heating and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s have supported MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Given weak flow aloft and deep layer shear around 20 kts, storm mode will likely remain clustered. RAP sounding analysis shows deep saturation with large CAPE throughout, supporting potential for wet microbursts and damaging winds. Given the weak flow and shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed at this time. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 35178734 35168738 35148757 35148779 35188803 35218819 35298844 35368852 35508862 35698870 35928858 36078828 36158785 36168746 36298720 36418697 36538686 36628676 36668673 36658615 36578574 36278541 36148533 36018527 35868527 35698538 35498558 35388587 35298608 35238630 35208652 35198685 35178734 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO OK...AND THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, are possible east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and Oklahoma. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the lower Mississippi into Ohio Valleys. Minor changes at 20Z including expanding the Slight Risk a bit more across western Nebraska to account for ongoing hail storms now developing. See WW 461 and mesoscale discussion 1462 for more information. Storms will continue to increase in coverage, with an eventual MCS possible tonight into the TX/OK Panhandles and across OK. Elsewhere, sporadic strong storms persist from KY to the Arklatex and into MS and AL. Storms are forecast to concentrate later today into this evening into northern MS and vicinity, with damaging wind threat. ..Jewell.. 07/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023/ ...Front Range of the Central Rockies into TX Panhandle and OK... A moist air mass is already in place across the Front Range, with recent surface observations sampling upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints. Southeasterly low-level flow will help maintain this moist air mass throughout the day. Steep mid-level lapse rates are in place atop this low-level moisture, with recent mesoanalysis estimate max 2-6 km AGL lapse rates around 8 to 8.5 deg C per km. Convective initiation appears most likely first across the high terrain of north-central CO (and maybe adjacent southern WY), with these storms then moving into the destabilizing air mass across the Front Range. Long hodographs, created by moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to moderate northwesterlies aloft, will combine with moderate to strong buoyancy to support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail greater than 2" in diameter and a tornado or two. These supercells will likely persist into the evening, when a strengthening low-level jet should help promote upscale growth into one or more linear clusters. The resulting convective lines are then expected to progress southeastward across the TX/OK Panhandles into OK overnight and into Sunday morning. Some potential for significant wind gusts exists with these clusters, but uncertainty regarding overall evolution (mostly the strength of the rear-inflow jet) and most likely location for significant gusts precludes delineating any areas in this outlook. ...Mid-South Vicinity... Surface observations show mid-70s dewpoints are already in place across the region, downstream of an MCV related to last night's thunderstorms across OK. As discussed in recently issued MCD #1461, greater thunderstorm strength and coverage is possible as the MCV continues eastward and interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the Mid-South. Mid-level flow throughout the region will be generally modest, contributing to a predominantly multicellular mode. Even so, some localized enhancement of the flow is possible near the vorticity maximum, resulting in the potential for a few more organized updrafts. Storm mergers could also help briefly augment overall updraft strength. These factors, combined with ample moisture and steep low-level lapse rates, result in the potential for a few water-loaded downbursts. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... Surface analysis places a pair of weak lows over southern Lower MI and western IN. A weak cold front extends between these two lows, and extends back farther southwestward from the western IN low. An area of showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing ahead of this front over western OH. Expectation is for this ongoing activity to continue eastward while gradually weakening over the next few hours. Associated cloud cover may temper daytime heating across IN and OH, but there should be a window for some limited heating/destabilization between the early cloudiness and the approaching cold front. Instability will still be modest, but this region will be on the southern periphery of the cyclonic flow covering eastern Canada, leading to slightly enhanced westerly flow aloft. The resulting combination of instability and shear could support a few stronger storms or bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA... The biggest change with this forecast update was to introduce an isolated dry thunderstorm area for portions of the Pacific Northwest. Here, a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. At the same time, however, relative humidity will be increasing, which might limit true dry thunderstorm potential. However, given the likelihood of at least a few lightning strikes over increasing receptive fuels, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was introduced. Elsewhere, the critical fire weather area in the Southwest was expanded slightly to account for increasing confidence in critical conditions. A more thorough meteorological discussion can be found below. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max will move across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin on Sunday, with an increase in surface winds and potential for Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions. ...Winds and RH... Weak moisture return into central and northern Arizona will bring afternoon relative humidity largely just above Critical values. Elevated conditions will remain possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent and sustained winds 15-20 mph. Further west across portions of southern Nevada and far western Arizona, and southern Utah, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent amid sustained winds 10-20 mph will support Elevated fire weather conditions and occasional spotty near Critical to Critical conditions. Stronger and longer duration sustained Critical winds are more likely across southern Nevada/far western Arizona amid relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Across southern Nevada, ERCs are approaching and exceeding seasonal averages for dryness. Fuels further north into central/northern Nevada are drying but remain more marginal. A small Critical delineation was added where the highest conditional probabilities for Critical meteorological conditions lines up with drying fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0461 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 461 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 081910Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 461 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM MDT Sat Jul 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Far Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon, with some supercells likely. Primary severe risk is large hail, with some isolated very large hail (i.e. 2" in diameter or greater) possible. A few strong gusts and a tornado or two could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Torrington WY to 5 miles southeast of Limon CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast from the Arklatex region across the Gulf Coast States, and across the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Isolated severe storms will be possible over the far northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will develop over the Rockies while a large upper low develops over south-central Canada. Generally low heights aloft will exist over much of the East, with various disturbances moving around the base of this broad trough from the Arklatex across the Southeast and up the East Coast. At the surface, a weak front will extend from NC/VA northward across PA and NY, with a leading midlevel wave and around 35-40 500 mb winds. Southerly winds ahead of this boundary will maintain dewpoints generally in the 65-70 F range. This weak boundary will trail southwestward into the southern Plains, with 70s F dewpoints to the south aiding instability. Here, a disturbance associated with ongoing storms will enhance wind fields aloft from the Arklatex into parts of the central Gulf Coast States, with damaging wind gusts expected. Elsewhere, cool air aloft and cyclonic flow around the Canadian cyclone will affect parts of ND and northern MN, providing cool air aloft and steep lapse rates. ...OK/TX into the lower MS Valley... Models indicate a likely MCS will exist early in the day over OK, and will move east/southeastward across AR, LA, MS and western AL during the day. Given the very moist air mass and corridor of 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, areas of wind damage will remain possible as the system evolves, and/or new storms form on the existing outflow. Confidence is low with both timing and placement of the greatest risk corridor given the nature of these regimes, but statistically the best corridor appears to stretch from the Arklatex into central MS. ...Carolinas northward into southern New England... The uncapped, moist air mass combined with minimal heating will result in relatively early development of storms centered over VA, MD, eastern PA and NY. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg as well as deep-layer mean winds over 30 kt should support a few clusters of damaging outflow winds. Isolated marginal hail appears most likely over northern areas where temperatures aloft will be cooler, and hodographs a bit more favorable with gradually increasing speeds aloft. ...ND/MN... Heating will result in a well-mixed boundary layer during the afternoon, while sufficient moisture contributes to 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE. Scattered storms may develop within the surface trough, with marginal hail or locally strong gusts possible. Storm mode may remain cellular despite the deep mixed layer as deep-layer shear increases to around 35 kt along with around 100 m2/s2 effective SRH. ..Jewell.. 07/08/2023 Read more

MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... FOR WEST TEXAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Areas affected...West Texas...Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459... Valid 072220Z - 080015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across parts of west Texas over the next couple of hours. Wind-damage and isolated large hail will continue to be possible with the stronger storms. An isolated severe threat will also be possible to the northwest of Lubbock early this evening, where the severe thunderstorm watch has been extended in area. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. The southern end of the shortwave trough is located in northeast New Mexico, just to the west of a maximum in instability where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. The lift and instability will continue to support thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Two line segments are currently ongoing with one in the northwest Texas Panhandle, and the other located about 70 statute miles to the northwest of Lubbock. Some bowing structure is evident in each of these lines. The MCS is moving to the east at around 40 knots. This should be favorable for wind damage along the leading edge of the stronger parts of the line. The strong instability, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will also support an isolated large-hail threat. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34030286 34750263 35860250 36250243 36600213 36700138 36520073 35970035 34770052 33880115 33350186 33290266 33700300 34030286 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through tonight across portions of the central and southern Plains. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the primary risks, with the greatest potential for significant (75+ mph) winds across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this outlook is to trim parts of the Marginal Risk across parts of the northern and central Plains, generally behind a cold front across parts of ND/MN, and in the wake of earlier convection across parts of the central Plains. Otherwise, isolated supercells will be possible this afternoon across eastern CO into northeast NM, with upscale growth into a severe-wind producing MCS expected across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles by this evening. See MCD 1455 for more information regarding the short-term threat across the southern High Plains, MCD 1454 for more information across northern New England, and MCD 1456 for more information across the northern Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 07/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023/ ...Southern/Central Plains...Southern/Central High Plains... Ongoing MCS across central OK is expected to continue weakening over the next few hours as it moves into the more stable conditions downstream in the Arklatex vicinity. A large ACCAS field has developed in the wake of the this MCS across the TX Panhandle, supported by modest isentropic ascent atop the MCS outflow. A few elevated storms are possible within this environment this morning, but warming and drying mid-levels should lead to their dissipation before this afternoon. The evolution of this MCS and additional elevated storms this morning have helped to reinforce a subtle surface boundary extending across the western TX Panhandle through far northeast NM and into southeast CO, where it intersects the lee troughing. Additionally, a cold front is forecast to continue pushing southward/southeastward across eastern CO and the adjacent central Plains. This front will likely be through much of eastern CO by the late afternoon, with post-frontal upslope in place across southeast CO. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated along the higher terrain of northeast NM and southern CO, with an initially supercellular mode possible over southeast CO. Very large hail is the primary severe risk with these supercells, but the high surface vorticity environment suggests a tornado or two is possible as well. Highest storm coverage is anticipated south of the Palmer Divide. An isolated storm or two capable of hail is possible north of the divide. These supercells are then expected to move downstream, interacting with the now modified boundary farther east across the northern TX/OK Panhandles. Convergence along this boundary will likely provide a favored corridor for upscale growth. High storm bases coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow, with significant severe winds of 75+ mph possible with this complex as it moves quickly eastward. Other supercells may form in the strengthening warm advection regime across south-central KS/northern OK this evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will support the potential for very large hail. Some threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually develop with this convection if it can grow upscale into one or more small clusters while spreading generally southeastward tonight. ...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Decaying MCS continues to push eastward across western IA/northern MO, with a few thunderstorms ongoing along its southern periphery across far northwest MO. Redevelopment/restrengthening appears possible downstream of theses storms over northern and east-central MO/west-central IL as the air mass destabilizes. This area will be on the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. Additional redevelopment is possible farther west over the southeast NE/northeast KS vicinity as outflow for the IA/MO MCS as well as outflow from the elevated cluster over central KS moves into the region. However, ongoing cloud cover may limit destabilization, precluding this potential redevelopment until later this evening. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should encourage the development of weak to moderate instability by this afternoon across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Glancing ascent associated with a shortwave trough over Quebec and weak low-level convergence along a surface trough extending from northern NY southward through central VA will likely foster at least scattered thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and evening. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly modest, generally 25 kt or less, and weakening with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic. Still, some loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing damaging gusts are possible, particularly from central NY into northern ME where shear is strongest. Read more

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0459 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 459 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 071950Z - 080200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Colorado Far Southwest Kansas Far Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across northeastern New Mexico and far southeastern Colorado this afternoon before then spreading into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle, and perhaps far southwest Kansas, tonight. Very large hail and strong gusts are possible with these storms. Organization into a linear convective system capable of significant severe gusts is probable. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Elkhart KS to 45 miles south of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more