Severe Storms

WW 485 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 132015Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon with a risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. As storms increase in coverage this evening and merge into clusters, damaging winds will become a more prominent severe weather hazard. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Guymon OK to 35 miles south southeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM SD 132105Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and eastern South Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move southeast through this evening with a risk for large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northeast of Brookings SD to 15 miles west northwest of Chamberlain SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-123-132240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-069-075-085-091-101-105-111- 113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-132240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC007-047-102-132240- Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 131945Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western Nebraska Southwest South Dakota Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with a risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will tend to merge into clusters with time posing an increasing risk for damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Chadron NE to 45 miles south of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-121- 125-132240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-199-132240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON SHERMAN STANTON WALLACE NEC057-132240- Read more

WW 483 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 131825Z - 140200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far western Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, with storms becoming more numerous and merging into clusters towards evening. Very large hail, up to the size of baseballs, will be possible along with damaging winds. A tornado or two may also occur. As storms merge into southeast-moving clusters, damaging winds will become an increasing concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Akron CO to 35 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...PBZ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-115-137-155-132240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-037-041-043-049-063-065-067- 069-071-073-077-079-081-089-097-109-113-115-117-119-127-129-135- 137-151-153-159-161-165-167-173-175-181-187-189-191-195-197-201- 203-205-209-237-239-132240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BOONE BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT GREENUP HARRISON JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON KENTON Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH PA WV 131755Z - 140100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Indiana eastern Kentucky Southern Ohio Extreme southwest Pennsylvania Western and central West Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue developing this afternoon with a risk for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage will increase by late afternoon and this evening with damaging winds becoming the primary severe weather hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Lexington KY to 75 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE ELM TO 15 NNW BGM TO 35 NE BGM TO 35 E UCA TO 30 SSE SLK TO 20 E SLK TO 35 NNE SLK TO 45 ENE MSS. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-132240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD MAC003-132240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NYC001-007-017-019-021-025-027-031-035-039-041-057-077-083-091- 093-095-105-107-111-113-115-132240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO CLINTON COLUMBIA DELAWARE Read more

WW 481 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY VT LO 131640Z - 140000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Extreme northwest Massachusetts Central and eastern New York Vermont Lake Ontario * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage along an eastward-moving cold front this afternoon and early evening with a risk for damaging gusts to 70 mph as the primary severe hazard. Large hail will also be possible, and a tornado or two may occur with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Burlington VT to 25 miles east of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The Southwest mid-level high will shift westward on Friday with very warm temperatures expected across much of the region and generally light winds. This will keep fire weather concerns low, though a few locally enhanced breezes may bring briefly Elevated concerns. Given the localized nature of this threat, no areas were included. The extremely warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies will work to further dry already critically dry fuels across much of the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The Southwest mid-level high will shift westward on Friday with very warm temperatures expected across much of the region and generally light winds. This will keep fire weather concerns low, though a few locally enhanced breezes may bring briefly Elevated concerns. Given the localized nature of this threat, no areas were included. The extremely warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies will work to further dry already critically dry fuels across much of the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing damaging wind and sporadic hail are forecast over much of the central Plains on Friday. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, and into parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A large upper low will remain over Canada, with an upper ridge over the Southwest. In between, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the Plains. To the east, various weaker embedded waves will affect parts of the OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Great Lakes. Moisture will remain plentiful east of the Rockies, with the only exception the northern Plains and upper MS Valley where drier air will spread in from the northwest. ...Much of the central Plains... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over NE Friday morning near a stationary front and where low-level theta-e will be substantial. Some of these storms could have hail relatively early in the day, with an increasing threat throughout the day as the storms and the boundary push south into KS where heating will occur. Large hail is most likely with the initial activity, with a strong model signal of an MCS eventually pushing south/southeast into OK and southwest MO late. Damaging winds, as well as heavy rain, will become the primary concern. ..NC into southern New England... A deep-layer moist plume will remain in place with 850 mb winds out of the south/southwest, and a weak surface trough from the Carolinas into southern New England. Little heating will be needed to uncap the air mass, with storms focused over NC and VA during the day where lapse rates will be steepest. Another area of focus will be over southern New England where southerly winds will bring 70s F dewpoints northward across MA. Shear will not be very strong but veering winds with height may favor a few cells producing marginal hail. ...Upper Great Lakes/MI area... Moistening will occur over Lower MI during the day as with a west/southwest low-level wind regime, beneath cool midlevel temperatures and 500 mb winds over 40 kt. Strong heating will occur, which when combined with the rising dewpoints out of the southwest will yield plentiful instability. Scattered storms are expected to form over interior Lower MI during the late afternoon by virtue of weak convergence and an uncapped air mass, and lengthy straight hodographs will favor cellular storm mode with hail possible. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing damaging wind and sporadic hail are forecast over much of the central Plains on Friday. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, and into parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A large upper low will remain over Canada, with an upper ridge over the Southwest. In between, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the Plains. To the east, various weaker embedded waves will affect parts of the OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Great Lakes. Moisture will remain plentiful east of the Rockies, with the only exception the northern Plains and upper MS Valley where drier air will spread in from the northwest. ...Much of the central Plains... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over NE Friday morning near a stationary front and where low-level theta-e will be substantial. Some of these storms could have hail relatively early in the day, with an increasing threat throughout the day as the storms and the boundary push south into KS where heating will occur. Large hail is most likely with the initial activity, with a strong model signal of an MCS eventually pushing south/southeast into OK and southwest MO late. Damaging winds, as well as heavy rain, will become the primary concern. ..NC into southern New England... A deep-layer moist plume will remain in place with 850 mb winds out of the south/southwest, and a weak surface trough from the Carolinas into southern New England. Little heating will be needed to uncap the air mass, with storms focused over NC and VA during the day where lapse rates will be steepest. Another area of focus will be over southern New England where southerly winds will bring 70s F dewpoints northward across MA. Shear will not be very strong but veering winds with height may favor a few cells producing marginal hail. ...Upper Great Lakes/MI area... Moistening will occur over Lower MI during the day as with a west/southwest low-level wind regime, beneath cool midlevel temperatures and 500 mb winds over 40 kt. Strong heating will occur, which when combined with the rising dewpoints out of the southwest will yield plentiful instability. Scattered storms are expected to form over interior Lower MI during the late afternoon by virtue of weak convergence and an uncapped air mass, and lengthy straight hodographs will favor cellular storm mode with hail possible. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 Read more