Severe Storms

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-152240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-152240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 495 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 152010Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and early evening with a risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. The potential for significant damaging winds, possibly in excess of 75 mph, will exist as storm coverage increases later this afternoon. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of Trinidad CO to 60 miles southwest of Tucumcari NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. ...ArklaTex into northern TX... A plume of deep moisture with PWAT over 2.00" remains across the area, and visible imagery shows signs of convection developing from southeast OK into southwest AR. Given strong instability, locally strong downbursts or marginal hail will be possible, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded into southwest AR. Farther west into northern TX, strong heating south of the area of cloudiness is leading to increasing CU fields, and isolated downbursts will be possible with any storms that form in this area as well. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 1566. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM. Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary, in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A small significant hail area has been introduced where initial supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast... Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Central Nebraska... Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE. Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns regarding the degree of elevated instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. ...ArklaTex into northern TX... A plume of deep moisture with PWAT over 2.00" remains across the area, and visible imagery shows signs of convection developing from southeast OK into southwest AR. Given strong instability, locally strong downbursts or marginal hail will be possible, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded into southwest AR. Farther west into northern TX, strong heating south of the area of cloudiness is leading to increasing CU fields, and isolated downbursts will be possible with any storms that form in this area as well. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 1566. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM. Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary, in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A small significant hail area has been introduced where initial supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast... Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Central Nebraska... Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE. Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns regarding the degree of elevated instability. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track. No changes were made. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Northwest on Sunday. At the surface a lee trough will develop to the east of the Cascades. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Mid-level winds will increase through the day across Oregon/Washington. The mid-level jet, however, will not overspread the region until late Sunday into Monday morning. During the afternoon, surface winds will increase in the lee of the Cascades as the surface trough deepens. Winds will be the strongest within the Cascade gaps and Columbia Gorge. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 mph (locally higher) with winds becoming lighter into the Columbia Basin itself. RH will fall to 15-20%. A few hours of elevated fire weather are expected within the terrain features with locally elevated conditions possible within the Basin. ...Northern Nevada... With mid-level flow increasing from the south/southwest, a period of marginally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible within northern Nevada. Fuels are not critically dry at present and, given the relatively weak winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track. No changes were made. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Northwest on Sunday. At the surface a lee trough will develop to the east of the Cascades. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Mid-level winds will increase through the day across Oregon/Washington. The mid-level jet, however, will not overspread the region until late Sunday into Monday morning. During the afternoon, surface winds will increase in the lee of the Cascades as the surface trough deepens. Winds will be the strongest within the Cascade gaps and Columbia Gorge. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 mph (locally higher) with winds becoming lighter into the Columbia Basin itself. RH will fall to 15-20%. A few hours of elevated fire weather are expected within the terrain features with locally elevated conditions possible within the Basin. ...Northern Nevada... With mid-level flow increasing from the south/southwest, a period of marginally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible within northern Nevada. Fuels are not critically dry at present and, given the relatively weak winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ...Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ...Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ...Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ...Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 Read more

MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...493... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...493... Valid 142200Z - 142330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491, 493 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely extend into central/east-central Missouri. There is some uncertainty how far east the organized bowing segment will progress. DISCUSSION...Long radar/satellite loops indicate outflow from prior convection has reached near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. A cluster of convection has developed north-northwest of St. Louis in a weakly sheared environment. Outflow has quickly spread away from this cluster. The well-organized bowing structure (with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage) now in the eastern Kansas City suburbs should continue to the east likely just south of the primary outflow boundary where the airmass has at least slowly tried to recover this afternoon. The overall eastern extent of the severe threat with the bowing segment is somewhat in doubt given the outflow from the weak convection that may spread southward ahead of it. Shear should at least modestly increase with time given the approach of an upstream shortwave trough. The thermodynamic environment and storm-scale organization trends will likely be the modulators of the severe threat duration. ..Wendt.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38409427 38549452 38749447 39069428 39269406 39219372 39189320 39059239 38889137 38529092 38279104 38159163 38179290 38259388 38409427 Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 493 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 142155Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Central and Southern Missouri Northern and Central Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple intense clusters of storms will continue to move southeastward into and across northern Oklahoma and central/southern Missouri, and eventually northwest Arkansas this evening. Corridors of wind damage and potentially significant-strength wind gusts can be expected, especially across northern Oklahoma and perhaps southwest Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 50 miles east southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491...WW 492... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-017-037-057-067-071-073-085-095-099-103-107-109- 111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-155-161-167-169-171-175-177-179- 187-195-201-203-142240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL CASS DE KALB FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX LA SALLE LEE LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC031-045-057-061-087-097-103-105-111-113-115-139-163-183- 142240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 492 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 142050Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and northern Illinois Extreme northeast Missouri Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east across the watch area through early this evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary severe weather risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east of Quincy IL to 40 miles northwest of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142100Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will increase across the central and southern High Plains during the next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a surface boundary/wind shift extending east-northeastward from northeastern NM into southwestern KS, where it intersects a southward-moving outflow boundary associated with an MCS farther east. In the near-term, an isolated thunderstorm is attempting to deepen along the wind shift in northeastern NM, where a long/straight hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates will support supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts. Farther east, boundary-layer cumulus is deepening across parts of southwestern KS into the OK Panhandle ahead of the southward-advancing outflow, and additional thunderstorm development is possible here during the next few hours. Similar to northeastern NM, a moderately unstable air mass and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will support organized storms including supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Convective evolution is somewhat unclear across this area, though current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35770211 35940291 36220366 36570386 36980378 37260337 37760251 38070170 38070127 37950084 36959963 36639939 36159939 35819970 35710044 35770211 Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FLV TO 15 E STJ TO 20 ENE CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 ..GLEASON..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-091-103-107-121-209-142140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-025-033-037-039-047-049-057-077-083-085-095- 097-101-107-109-117-159-165-167-177-185-195-217-142140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY CLINTON DADE GREENE HENRY HICKORY JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON PETTIS Read more

WW 491 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 141835Z - 150000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms will move east across the watch area this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, possibly up to 85 mph, will be the primary severe weather risk. Large hail will also be possible, in addition to a tornado or two with embedded circulations along the leading edge of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Chillicothe MO to 25 miles east southeast of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489...WW 490... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE LBL TO 45 NW P28 TO 15 WNW HUT TO 25 ENE HUT TO 30 SSW MHK TO 15 WSW OJC. ..GLEASON..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-007-015-017-019-025-031-033-035-049-059-073-077-079- 095-097-099-111-115-119-125-127-133-139-151-155-173-185-191-205- 207-142140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLARK COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA LABETTE LYON MARION MEADE MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO OSAGE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 490 SEVERE TSTM KS 141655Z - 150000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern Kansas * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A complex of severe storms will move rapidly southeast across the watch area this afternoon, with intense damaging wind gusts up to 85 mph expected. Large hail will also be possible with isolated supercell storms that develop in advance of the complex of storms. The risk for a tornado or two will exist, especially along the leading edge of storms with embedded bowing segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Dodge City KS to 50 miles east of Emporia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142010Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI into early evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorms are tracking eastward across parts of southwestern/south-central MN this afternoon -- generally focused along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface trough. Ahead of this activity, differential heating along the northern edge of widespread cloud coverage should provide a favorable corridor across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI for the maintenance of this activity into the early evening time frame. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the area and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) could support marginal supercell structures and loosely organized clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds. Overall, the severe threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated for a watch. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44169582 44299604 44549613 44929620 45289606 45479573 45599498 45689410 45839342 46059294 46399241 46389176 46209112 45809081 45279079 44839101 44579145 44409189 44259255 44209399 44159535 44169582 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, including some over 75 mph and large hail are forecast today over portions of the central and southern Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...KS/MO/OK... A substantial MCS is currently moving southeastward across central KS with additional activity extending east along I-70 into northeast KS. The air mass ahead of these storms remains strongly unstable with a warming air mass and 70s F dewpoints. Earlier, GBD measured a wind gust of 52 kt near the tail end of the MCS, with 63 kt measured at TOP and various KS mesonet locations over 60 mph. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1547. ...MN into WI... Heating near a surface trough with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability may favor isolated hail or gusty winds, and a Marginal Risk has been added to this region, generally north of the existing cirrus canopy where heating is strongest. ..Jewell.. 07/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023/ ...Central and southern Plains... An ongoing cluster of severe storms was located over southwest/south-central NE at 16z, with a history of large hail and, more recently, severe gusts. This small complex is within a zone of warm advection in the 850 to 700-mb layer, and will likely continue moving southeastward along an instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Aided by steep lapse rates in the midlevels and strong-locally extreme MLCAPE across central KS/central and eastern OK this afternoon, an expected evolution into a fast-moving MCS with significant severe wind gust potential is anticipated. The Enhanced Risk was expanded west over KS based on morning CAM guidance, and also adjusted slightly southward over OK. The Slight and Marginal Risk areas were also expanded south as well-organized and fast-moving MCSs often persist longer than reflected in some operational guidance. Given the CAPE-shear parameter space, supercell potential will also exist with this MCS and an attendant risk for large hail. Farther west, isolated supercell development appears possible across southeast WY/northeast CO late today, along the southern fringe of stronger WNW mid-level flow. Large hail will be possible. ...MO/IA/IL/WI... A cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the front. Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours through this evening. ...East Coast from NC to New England... Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (dew points averaging upper 60s-mid 70s) will lead to moderate CAPE across a rather large area this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, contributing to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Read more