Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099- 101-103-105-109-121-020540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WEST BATON ROUGE MSC045-047-059-020540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-020540- CW Read more

MD 2299 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 713... FOR SOUTHEAST LA AND COASTAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Southeast LA and coastal MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 713... Valid 020338Z - 020445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 713 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a tornadic supercell or two should increase over the next couple hours across southeast LA, including the New Orleans metro area. DISCUSSION...Long-lived convective cluster across south-central LA will likely continue east-northeast into the early morning hours across southeast LA and coastal MS. An embedded supercell has recently intensified over the Assumption Parish vicinity, and additional supercell development will be possible to the southwest of this storm amid strong mid to upper-level speed shear. Low-level hodographs are also in the process of enlarging, albeit from initially small curvature, and should continue to do so for the next several hours. Time-series of the TMSY wind profile confirms 0-3 km SRH has steadily held above 250 m2/s2 and a longer-lived supercell may evolve out of the Assumption Parish storm as it approaches the greater New Orleans/Lake Pontchartrain area through midnight. ..Grams.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29989107 30249038 30508962 30778897 30738857 30598830 30088845 30078864 29938889 29718943 29419036 29249078 29359127 29649153 29879142 29989107 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299. ..GRAMS..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099- 101-103-105-109-121-020440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WEST BATON ROUGE MSC045-047-059-020440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-020440- Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0713 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL Panhandle after midnight. Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has evolved across this region and this activity should gradually develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that 70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime. Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023 Read more

MD 2298 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 020013Z - 020145Z SUMMARY...A level 2-Slight Risk will be added with the upcoming 01Z outlook across the central Gulf Coast for the potential of a couple tornadic storms tonight. In the short-term, a gradual increase in the threat for a low-probability brief tornado and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph should occur across coastal/southern LA through late evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster ongoing south of the mouth of the Sabine River should eventually spread northeast towards coastal southern LA. Strong speed shear in the mid to upper-level wind profile will be conducive to updraft rotation, and a few transient/embedded supercells should evolve as the cluster progresses inland amid a modestly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind profiles are currently the limiting factor to a more robust severe threat per time-series of KLCH/TMSY VWP data and the 00Z LIX sounding. 18Z ECMWF and NAM guidance along with the 21Z RAP suggest that low-level flow will increase, especially after 06Z. As such, confidence is low in whether an appreciable tornado threat can be realized this evening, suggesting that watch potential is unlikely in the near-term. But as low-level SRH increases with enlarging hodographs, observational data will be closely monitored for the possibility of a tornado watch later tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29609272 30039220 30868856 30898775 30648746 30268779 29258982 29149168 29609272 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 1 23:31:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 1 23:31:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...middle and upper Texas Coast into portions of western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012129Z - 012330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms along a coastal front may eventually grow upscale into a more organized cluster capable of damaging winds or a brief tornado. Confidence in storm evolution and the subsequent severe risk is low. DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, afternoon observations showed thunderstorms developing along a coastal front across portions of the middle TX Coast. Located ahead of a subtle shortwave impulse embedded within broad southwesterly flow aloft, the coastal front has slowly been lifting northward through the day. While the majority of the open warm sector should remain offshore for the next couple of hours, weak low-level warm advection may allow for continued thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the upper TX coast and into parts of southwestern LA. Modified RAP sounding show 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-45 kt of effective shear could support a few organized storms, including short bowing segments or supercells. Hi-res guidance also suggests a few stronger storms, with a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado, could evolve as they track along the coastal front late this afternoon. However, confidence in sustained organized storms staying near-surface based is low given the lack of broader-scale forcing for ascent and the slow movement of the front. However, this could change later tonight as the main shortwave and increasing mass response from the low-level jet bolster low-level WAA. Trends will be monitored, but currently, a weather watch appears unlikely given the narrow warm sector and limited potential for surface-based storm organization. ..Lyons/Hart.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 31089273 30999204 30699195 30379199 29999213 29629230 29549247 29489275 29259398 29079451 28619532 28579587 28629605 28859617 29109608 29729539 30379451 30829338 31089273 Read more