Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and then to the Atlantic Coast by Wednesday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the central states during the mid-week. As a result, a relatively dry airmass should remain in place over much of the continental United States making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, moisture return is forecast across the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as a mid-level trough moves into the western U.S. A closed-off low, associated with this system, is forecast to develop on Saturday across the Four Corners region. Ahead of the low, thunderstorm development could occur in parts of the southern Plains on Saturday. However, predictability remains low at this extended range, mainly due to uncertainty concerning instability and system timing. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and then to the Atlantic Coast by Wednesday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the central states during the mid-week. As a result, a relatively dry airmass should remain in place over much of the continental United States making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, moisture return is forecast across the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as a mid-level trough moves into the western U.S. A closed-off low, associated with this system, is forecast to develop on Saturday across the Four Corners region. Ahead of the low, thunderstorm development could occur in parts of the southern Plains on Saturday. However, predictability remains low at this extended range, mainly due to uncertainty concerning instability and system timing. Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S 7R4 TO 40 S MOB AND 20 S 7R4 TO 40 SSW MOB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 713 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02/10Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301. ..KERR..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-021000- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-021000- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND LAKE BORGNE CHANDELEUR SOUND Read more

WW 713 TORNADO LA MS CW 020230Z - 021000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 830 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to gradually intensify tonight across the northern Gulf Coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a supercell tornado risk. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with the stronger storms. The severe threat will shift from west to east across the watch area tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Intracoastal City LA to 45 miles east southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 TO 25 SSW MOB. ..KERR..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-020940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-020940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND LAKE BORGNE CHANDELEUR SOUND BRETON SOUND COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula, as an area of high pressure settles into the southern U.S. The dry airmass over most of the continental United States will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 TO 25 SSW MOB. ..KERR..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-020840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE GMZ436-455-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-020840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM MISSISSIPPI SOUND LAKE BORGNE Read more

MD 2300 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 713... FOR SOUTHEAST LA...COASTAL MS/AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Southeast LA...coastal MS/AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 713... Valid 020535Z - 020700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 713 continues. SUMMARY...A brief tornado and marginally severe wind/hail will remain possible into the early morning as convection gradually shifts east from southeast LA to coastal portions of MS/AL. DISCUSSION...A pair of lower-end supercells have recently progressed into the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity, with additional deep convection lingering to the southwest in the northern Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish area. A limited severe threat should persist with this convection as it moves east towards the MS/AL coast. Surface-based instability has been subsiding amid overturning and stronger buoyancy relegated to the western Gulf, with MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg east of LA. As such, the overall thermodynamic environment should gradually become less favorable for sustaining supercell structures. In addition, downstream low-level wind profiles as sampled by the KMOB VWP are still fairly modest, although an uptick remains progged during the early morning. This setup will yield a low-probability severe threat continuing east of WW 713, with uncertainty over whether another watch is needed. ..Grams.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29539117 30179017 30358996 30668935 30798844 30908777 30588742 30438742 30348745 30198777 29898884 29408993 29299093 29539117 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will move across the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the eastern U.S. Ahead of a cold front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will move across the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the eastern U.S. Ahead of a cold front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will move across the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the eastern U.S. Ahead of a cold front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 12/02/2023 Read more