Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more