Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 2 22:14:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Cool temperatures and moist fuels will be present across most of the CONUS through the week. Fine fuels in the southern High Plains will continue to dry through the period, but winds will be light for much of the week which should minimize fire weather concerns. There will be at least some increase in fire weather potential in the southern high Plains toward the end of the week as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and dry and breezy conditions resume. However, confidence still remains too low for any probabilities given questionably dry fuels and the majority of windy conditions in the post frontal airmass when temperatures are expected to be cooler. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ...Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. A strong embedded shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region through the day. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward over the lower Great Lakes in conjunction with this shortwave, with secondary cyclogenesis expected off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front will move through parts of the Northeast, OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Convection may persist through the day across parts of the Southeast and FL Peninsula, in advance of the cold front. With the primary shortwave trough and related ascent ejecting well north of the region, storms are expected to remain rather isolated, weak, and disorganized, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Farther north, low-topped convection may develop during the afternoon from eastern OH into western PA/NY, in association with the shortwave trough and related surface low and cold front. Buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, but cold temperatures aloft and relatively strong low/midlevel flow could support small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. A strong embedded shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region through the day. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward over the lower Great Lakes in conjunction with this shortwave, with secondary cyclogenesis expected off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front will move through parts of the Northeast, OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Convection may persist through the day across parts of the Southeast and FL Peninsula, in advance of the cold front. With the primary shortwave trough and related ascent ejecting well north of the region, storms are expected to remain rather isolated, weak, and disorganized, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Farther north, low-topped convection may develop during the afternoon from eastern OH into western PA/NY, in association with the shortwave trough and related surface low and cold front. Buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, but cold temperatures aloft and relatively strong low/midlevel flow could support small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. A strong embedded shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region through the day. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward over the lower Great Lakes in conjunction with this shortwave, with secondary cyclogenesis expected off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front will move through parts of the Northeast, OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Convection may persist through the day across parts of the Southeast and FL Peninsula, in advance of the cold front. With the primary shortwave trough and related ascent ejecting well north of the region, storms are expected to remain rather isolated, weak, and disorganized, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Farther north, low-topped convection may develop during the afternoon from eastern OH into western PA/NY, in association with the shortwave trough and related surface low and cold front. Buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, but cold temperatures aloft and relatively strong low/midlevel flow could support small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. A strong embedded shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region through the day. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward over the lower Great Lakes in conjunction with this shortwave, with secondary cyclogenesis expected off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front will move through parts of the Northeast, OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Convection may persist through the day across parts of the Southeast and FL Peninsula, in advance of the cold front. With the primary shortwave trough and related ascent ejecting well north of the region, storms are expected to remain rather isolated, weak, and disorganized, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Farther north, low-topped convection may develop during the afternoon from eastern OH into western PA/NY, in association with the shortwave trough and related surface low and cold front. Buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, but cold temperatures aloft and relatively strong low/midlevel flow could support small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. A strong embedded shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region through the day. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward over the lower Great Lakes in conjunction with this shortwave, with secondary cyclogenesis expected off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front will move through parts of the Northeast, OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Convection may persist through the day across parts of the Southeast and FL Peninsula, in advance of the cold front. With the primary shortwave trough and related ascent ejecting well north of the region, storms are expected to remain rather isolated, weak, and disorganized, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Farther north, low-topped convection may develop during the afternoon from eastern OH into western PA/NY, in association with the shortwave trough and related surface low and cold front. Buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, but cold temperatures aloft and relatively strong low/midlevel flow could support small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more