Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. In its wake, upper ridging will envelop much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will approach the CA coast by Wednesday morning. Strong surface high pressure building over much of the eastern half of the CONUS will result in stable conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the Pacific upper low will maintain a stream of midlevel moisture into central/northern CA. A few deeper convective elements may support isolated lightning flashes along the coast and into the valleys of central/northern CA, especially during the overnight into early Wednesday morning hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Cool temperatures and abundant precipitation will keep fire-weather conditions minimal over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Cool temperatures and abundant precipitation will keep fire-weather conditions minimal over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Cool temperatures and abundant precipitation will keep fire-weather conditions minimal over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Cool temperatures and abundant precipitation will keep fire-weather conditions minimal over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Cool temperatures and abundant precipitation will keep fire-weather conditions minimal over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Cool temperatures and abundant precipitation will keep fire-weather conditions minimal over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New England this afternoon. ...Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ...California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New England this afternoon. ...Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ...California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New England this afternoon. ...Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ...California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New England this afternoon. ...Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ...California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New England this afternoon. ...Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ...California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New England this afternoon. ...Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ...California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible today from near the coast of New Jersey into southern New England. ...Coastal New Jersey/Southern New England... A strong upper-level system over the Great Lakes will move toward the central Appalachians today. Ahead of the system, a lead shortwave trough and an associated deepening surface low will move northward across the Northeast. A cold front near the Mid-Atlantic coast will move eastward into the near-coastal waters with a somewhat moist airmass located head of the front extending northward across southern New England. A few thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front within this weak instability. An impressive 80 to 100 knot low-level jet will move northward across New England today. Storms that develop across southern New England could have an isolated wind-damage threat, as the stronger convection potentially helps to mix winds toward the surface. However, due to very weak instability, any threat is expected to remain marginal this morning and afternoon. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/18/2023 Read more