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1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second
mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall
expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and
associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net
result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S.,
especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to
wildfire spread for many locales.
..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second
mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall
expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and
associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net
result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S.,
especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to
wildfire spread for many locales.
..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second
mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall
expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and
associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net
result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S.,
especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to
wildfire spread for many locales.
..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second
mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall
expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and
associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net
result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S.,
especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to
wildfire spread for many locales.
..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second
mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall
expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and
associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net
result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S.,
especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to
wildfire spread for many locales.
..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is
forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will
be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level
flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so,
low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a
previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass
expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection.
Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the
West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA
ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day.
A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible
within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is
expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band
associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA.
However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave
are not conducive to lightning production.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is
forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will
be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level
flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so,
low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a
previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass
expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection.
Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the
West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA
ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day.
A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible
within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is
expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band
associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA.
However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave
are not conducive to lightning production.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is
forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will
be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level
flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so,
low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a
previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass
expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection.
Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the
West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA
ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day.
A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible
within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is
expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band
associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA.
However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave
are not conducive to lightning production.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is
forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will
be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level
flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so,
low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a
previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass
expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection.
Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the
West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA
ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day.
A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible
within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is
expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band
associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA.
However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave
are not conducive to lightning production.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is
forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will
be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level
flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so,
low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a
previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass
expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection.
Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the
West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA
ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day.
A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible
within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is
expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band
associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA.
However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave
are not conducive to lightning production.
..Mosier.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few
isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central
California coast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500
mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today,
supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low
into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in
place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust
potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary
layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast,
supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated
thunderstorms.
...Portions of southern New England...
The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately
preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be
unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates
above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at
least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a
robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a
stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum
transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings
suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid
60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble
guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will
struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential
for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind
fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within
thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat
during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal
Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New
England to address the conditional damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few
isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central
California coast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500
mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today,
supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low
into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in
place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust
potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary
layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast,
supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated
thunderstorms.
...Portions of southern New England...
The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately
preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be
unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates
above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at
least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a
robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a
stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum
transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings
suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid
60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble
guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will
struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential
for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind
fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within
thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat
during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal
Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New
England to address the conditional damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few
isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central
California coast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500
mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today,
supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low
into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in
place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust
potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary
layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast,
supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated
thunderstorms.
...Portions of southern New England...
The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately
preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be
unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates
above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at
least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a
robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a
stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum
transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings
suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid
60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble
guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will
struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential
for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind
fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within
thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat
during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal
Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New
England to address the conditional damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few
isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central
California coast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500
mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today,
supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low
into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in
place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust
potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary
layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast,
supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated
thunderstorms.
...Portions of southern New England...
The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately
preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be
unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates
above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at
least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a
robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a
stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum
transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings
suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid
60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble
guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will
struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential
for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind
fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within
thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat
during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal
Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New
England to address the conditional damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few
isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central
California coast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500
mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today,
supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low
into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in
place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust
potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary
layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast,
supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated
thunderstorms.
...Portions of southern New England...
The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately
preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be
unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates
above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at
least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a
robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a
stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum
transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings
suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid
60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble
guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will
struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential
for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind
fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within
thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat
during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal
Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New
England to address the conditional damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
MD 2336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 180253Z - 180400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms along
the NC coast that can ingest surface-based buoyancy. A Tornado Watch
is being issued.
DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to approach the NC/SC
coastline, with an effective warm front established roughly near the
NC shore. Regional VADs depict impressively curved/enlarged
hodographs over extreme eastern North Carolina. The effective warm
front and associated marginally buoyant surface-based parcels have
struggled to move far inland over the last several hours, limiting
severe potential. However, mid 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints
reside along the shore, and it is possible that this better moisture
may move further inland of ongoing storms over the next couple of
hours. Should this occur, a damaging gust or brief tornado may
develop with any of the stronger storms. Given the impressive shear
profiles, a new Tornado Watch is being issued given
destabilization/convective trends that are possible over the next
few hours.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
LAT...LON 34637713 35417696 36047660 36297626 36277589 35917546
35457541 35037571 34727617 34587659 34637713
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
WW 0723 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0723 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
WW 0723 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0723 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
WW 723 TORNADO NC CW 180255Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern North Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 955 PM
until 200 AM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will continue
to slowly shift east across eastern North Carolina tonight. A
couple of supercells may pose an isolated threat for damaging gusts
and possibly a tornado or two.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Cape
Hatteras NC to 70 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 19040.
...Smith
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
MD 2335 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 722...
Valid 172351Z - 180145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of isolated supercell structures and a brief
tornado continues.
DISCUSSION...Radar loops continue to show relatively shallow/weak
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ashore across eastern NC.
This activity is to the east of a deep surface low centered off the
coast near the NC/SC border, in a regime of very strong low-level
winds and vertical shear. The VAD profile at ILM is showing a
rapidly weakening shear profile/hodograph as the surface low moves
east and as a mid-level dry slot approaches, but the VAD at MHX
remains very intense with 1km AGL winds over 60 knots. Stronger
low-level moisture and instability remains just offshore and may
never make it very far inland. But transient supercell structures
may develop along the near-shore baroclinic zone, posing a risk of
brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
Tornado watch 722 is scheduled to expire at 01z. Current
indications are that coastal counties of far-eastern NC may need to
remain in a watch for a few hours beyond 01z.
..Hart.. 12/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34457808 36117660 35997526 35107547 34417657 33787770
34457808
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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