Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 722 TORNADO NC CW 171850Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will gradually increase this afternoon and into this evening, as locally intense thunderstorms shift north-northeastward across the North Carolina Coastal Plain and Outer Banks area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles northeast of New Bern NC to 30 miles south of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 18040. ...Goss Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 17 23:46:12 UTC 2023.

MD 2334 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina...far northeast South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 722... Valid 172149Z - 172345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of brief tornado risk may persist through early evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows gradual warming as winds veer over the region, but instability remain limited over much of the area. A plume of stronger instability does exist over the ocean, with upper 60s F dewpoints now ahead of the low and not far from the latitude of KMYR and KSUT. The persistent and strong southeasterly winds ahead of the low track will maintain a minimally unstable air mass over eastern NC, where very strong low-level shear will remain. Cooling aloft and lift near the deepening low and midlevel trough, despite the midlevel dry slot, may still yield isolated supercells, perhaps moving onshore with brief tornado risk before interacting with the cooler air mass. ..Jewell.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33417877 33517890 33807909 34337858 34967785 35797709 36227628 36257562 35647529 35207537 34867612 34487649 34627703 34377752 33947781 33727792 33787824 33637846 33417877 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more