Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move off the Atlantic Coast today, as an upper-level ridge moves through the Rockies. At the surface, dry and cool air associated with a large surface high in the eastern U.S. will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms across most of the continental United States. The only exception will be in central and northern California, where a few thunderstorms will be possible due to an increase of large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an eastern Pacific upper-level low. No severe thunderstorms are expected today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move off the Atlantic Coast today, as an upper-level ridge moves through the Rockies. At the surface, dry and cool air associated with a large surface high in the eastern U.S. will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms across most of the continental United States. The only exception will be in central and northern California, where a few thunderstorms will be possible due to an increase of large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an eastern Pacific upper-level low. No severe thunderstorms are expected today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move off the Atlantic Coast today, as an upper-level ridge moves through the Rockies. At the surface, dry and cool air associated with a large surface high in the eastern U.S. will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms across most of the continental United States. The only exception will be in central and northern California, where a few thunderstorms will be possible due to an increase of large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an eastern Pacific upper-level low. No severe thunderstorms are expected today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move off the Atlantic Coast today, as an upper-level ridge moves through the Rockies. At the surface, dry and cool air associated with a large surface high in the eastern U.S. will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms across most of the continental United States. The only exception will be in central and northern California, where a few thunderstorms will be possible due to an increase of large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an eastern Pacific upper-level low. No severe thunderstorms are expected today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move off the Atlantic Coast today, as an upper-level ridge moves through the Rockies. At the surface, dry and cool air associated with a large surface high in the eastern U.S. will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms across most of the continental United States. The only exception will be in central and northern California, where a few thunderstorms will be possible due to an increase of large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an eastern Pacific upper-level low. No severe thunderstorms are expected today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/19/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution of the upper low expected to be just off the southern CA coast early D4/Friday morning. General expectation for the system to become more progressive, tracking over southern CA/northern Baja and into AZ on D4/Friday, and across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday. A moderately warm and moist air mass will likely be in place over the southern Plains, contributing to the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the system moves through. Shear will be strong enough to support organized convection, but whether buoyancy will be large enough to support deep, sustained updrafts remains in question. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of the first, with the current expectation taking this system through the Plains on D7/Monday. Guidance suggests colder air will accompany this system, with a strong cold front expected to push across the central and southern Plains on D7/Monday. Some thunderstorms are possible along this front over the southern Plains, although uncertainty regarding the quality of the low-level moisture preceding it limit predictability. Guidance is beginning to suggest this shortwave will continue within the southern stream after D7/Monday, intensifying as it moves across the Southeast during the middle of next week. This intensification, if realized, could lead to some severe potential over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during the second half of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution of the upper low expected to be just off the southern CA coast early D4/Friday morning. General expectation for the system to become more progressive, tracking over southern CA/northern Baja and into AZ on D4/Friday, and across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday. A moderately warm and moist air mass will likely be in place over the southern Plains, contributing to the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the system moves through. Shear will be strong enough to support organized convection, but whether buoyancy will be large enough to support deep, sustained updrafts remains in question. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of the first, with the current expectation taking this system through the Plains on D7/Monday. Guidance suggests colder air will accompany this system, with a strong cold front expected to push across the central and southern Plains on D7/Monday. Some thunderstorms are possible along this front over the southern Plains, although uncertainty regarding the quality of the low-level moisture preceding it limit predictability. Guidance is beginning to suggest this shortwave will continue within the southern stream after D7/Monday, intensifying as it moves across the Southeast during the middle of next week. This intensification, if realized, could lead to some severe potential over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during the second half of next week. Read more