Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D4 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D5 Thursday - D6 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Overall, cool and wet conditions along with seasonably moist fuels will keep fire spread potential low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D4 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D5 Thursday - D6 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Overall, cool and wet conditions along with seasonably moist fuels will keep fire spread potential low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more