Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more