Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough will eject into the Plains D3 Thursday - D4 Friday, bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Latest fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D5 - Saturday through D8 - Tuesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more